Follow the money, Giants fans
Ray Ratto
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
The escalating paychecks of Aaron Rowand (seen here, seco... Edgar Renteria Jeremy Affeldt (left) Matt Cain
So Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy got their deals, as expected. And the new season begins in 172 days, and the Giants will be handed new and grander expectations because, as we know, every time a team gains 16 wins, it must by definition pick up another 16 the next year, give or take a few. And that burden will land squarely on Sabean's leonine head.
Except that teams don't typically make two such leaps in successive years; in fact, most teams that actually leap forward one year tend to fall back the next. Not because it wants to, or because the players are lazy or stupid, but because the history of baseball says it will. This has been covered by sabermetric experts for years, but you could do it yourself. It's a fact, period. No arguing.
But the second is that this expectation thing is Sabean's problem to correct, and the math says no. Again.
It's Bill Neukom's problem, and the Burns daughters' problem, and the rest of the partners' problem. Owners set the parameters, owners set the budgets, and owners largely decide how seriously a general manager can take his duties.
Proof? We thought you'd never ask.
Give or take a few bucks, the Giants have $37 million and change coming off the books this winter. Between contracted raises for Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Jeremy Affeldt and Matt Cain, the cost to re-sign Juan Uribe, the cost to re-sign or replace Bengie Molina and Freddy Sanchez, and the expensive decisions awaiting them on Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum, that $37 million is actually a lot closer to $12 million, depending on how you figure the deferred contracts the previous ownership signed.
That's not enough to get Jason Bay or Matt Holliday for one year, let alone an extended deal. In other words, if you have expectations you think the Giants are obligated to meet, you need to aim your baleful stare higher up the organizational monkey-bar set.
If the Giants are supposed to buy a mighty and powerful bat, the budget has to be increased, and fairly dramatically. That's Neukom's job, and all impatience, foot-tapping, arms-folded exasperation should be directed his way.
Sabean's role becomes important if the Giants decide to attack the offensive problem a different way - namely, by eliminating the outs in the lineup piecemeal, with two or three less sexy signings that don't dent the existing budget. That could include trying to get Molina at a slightly lower price, or trolling for second-level free agents like first baseman Nick Johnson.
Buster Posey? Clearly not ready yet, not for the role he is being asked to fill long-term. And no, none of the other minor-league wunderkinder who are supposed to implement Neukom's other pet project, "The Giants Way," is ready, either. This means the Giants have yet another decision to make: Shoot the moon now or try to hold serve until 2011, which doesn't seem like anyone's idea of a good time.
Most Giants fans have enjoyed blaming Sabean for all the team's ills, on the richly false assumption that he was the architect of either the team's philosophy, its budgetary decisions or most expensive acquisitions. He is a convenient target, and has made his share of mistakes over what is the longest current tenure of any general manager in the game, but as owners become more involved in the day-to-day operation of the teams on which they spend so much money, most general managers have less leeway than people think.
And Sabean has no more leeway now. What he does have is an owner in Neukom who seems more open to listening and less aggressive about attention, which might make Sabean's job easier but not fully easy. The team is still in a bind talent-wise, and the minor leagues are not yet pushing out big-league hitters, which is why the really important meeting in Giants history will include not just Neukom and Sabean, but the investors as well. Because the next move is all about how much the organization wants to spend on those next 16 wins.
