@206 you said:
I don't think he has the right tools. He doesn't have a good jab, which I think would help him get close and inside against Floyd and he doesn't have any head movement.
I agree with this. Even though he has some good food movement at times, if you aren't moving your head against someone who is a counter puncher or has as much speed as Floyd does you're going to get hit...alot.
Going back to who was the most successful at getting on the inside on Floyd, it was Castillo. If you re-watch the first fight he used A LOT of head movement when he would work his way inside (dipped his head down low and bobbed side to side), something ortiz doesn't do. In addition he worked the body very well and he had a fantastic chin at that time. Ortiz doesn't really have any those things.
He did everything you just listed plus he kept that jab out there. He also knew what to do when Floyd was against the ropes which is something a lot of boxers either don't know how to do or simply don't give a damn about that. However, Castillo was like 10 lbs heavier than Floyd in that fight so it was a bit easier for him to get in and muscle him around a bit, but still, the head movement was there and he seemed good on his feet.
In the Berto fight, Ortiz lunges in with shots from the outside, that's basically how he gets his shots off and to get inside. that, IMO, spells absolute disaster against a technician like floyd. You can't lunge in against Floyd or you'll get Ricky Hatton'd. You need to either work your way in with a STRONG jab (not a lazy, half-assed jab like mosley used) or do what castillo did and bob and weave that head around unpredictably. Ortiz does neither.
In order for Ortiz to win this fight he is going to have to knock Floyd out. He is not going to outbox Floyd. So how does he do it? You either put yourself out there like you said and risk getting hit all night (and possibly knocked out yourself), you wait for Floyd to make a mistake (I doubt this will happen) or you come in with a skill set that allows you to beat a boxer. You're moving, you're using a strong jab, you're cutting off the ring and you're going to the body
before you start trying to knock his head off. For Floyd to win this fight he just needs to adjust his stance a bit because he's fighting a soutpaw (which will make the fight a bit closer as far as distance is concerned) and use his jab to keep him back or to measure him for when he starts throwing power shots.
One point against Floyd, which could be a major one, is by the time of the fight he will have not fought in 16 months. That's a long layoff. Floyd is also 34 years old now he's not a young guy anymore. So if he comes in rusty at all, he may have a few shaky moments early (kinda like round 2 against Mosley) and you just never know with a guy like Ortiz who has power in both hands that could be disastrous. But Floyd is a pro and I expect any ring rust to be gone after the first couple rounds.
I don't think his age or layoff is going to hurt him because he has a lot of discipline. Leonard was able to come off a long layoff and win and BHOP is in his 40's still winning fights. Floyd is a GREAT/EXCELLENT boxer. He's someone who was built for this. He's one of those people where the stars aligned, everything fell in place or God blessed him (I know you're gonna lol@that one.) Whatever the case may be, he can stay away, come back, shake the cobwebs off and get into his groove.