**2nd Annual Official '09 SF GIants reg. season Thread**
- Thread starter DUTCH-F.E
- Start date
its not just that he doesnt need to add (which i agree he is great just the way he is), he cant add anymore..........there is no projection to Lincecum.......he is at his peak.......................thats all i said...............Kershaw still project major imrpovements as he matures and fills out.......when command comes around (which isn't guaranteed)
you obviously dontknowhow to read stats........give kershaw linc IP's and Kershaw gives up less hits that linc............give Linc Kershaw IP's and Kershaw gives up less hits than linc....................its called BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST (BAA)............read about it.
it is a fact....................
Kershaw BAA= .193
Lincecum BAA= .222
puts more pressure on a pitcher to go out and perform every game knowing that itmay be the difference in advancing or not advancing...............playing on a shitty team makes the learning process a little more barable..............plus Kershaw being a youngster (21) up to majors at 20 years old makes what he has done even more impressive...........
i didnt say anything about learning to pitch............i shows no more "projection".......of course he can learn a splitty/change or whatever that can improve his pitching, but every other pitcher and their mother can also do that...........projection mean improvement on the pitches you already have...............
hypothetical game 7 of the World Series last year............you are the manager and you have 2 fresh pitchers..........Greg Maddox and his 4 CY Young awards (proven pitcher) or Tim Lincecum (Potential)?
potential is 50% of baseball......................every superstar was a prospect when they entered pro ball.................of course in some instances potential turned to shit.................
the Giants believe in potential or they would be trading away Burngarmer and Alderson.......Posey and Villanueva................
potential means alote or else the Dodgers would have given the Twins Broxton, Kershaw and Kemp for Johan Santana like they wanted.......
potential means alote in baseball...........while the Red Sox thought they overestimated the potential of their top prospect and the Marlins thought the Red Sox were not correctly accessing Hanley Ramirez potential and decided that he was worth more than Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (which he is BTW)...........
and those numbers mean what exactly? please post something that can be read and understood..........
when did i say he wasNT the best pitcher............my original post was that Kershaw has been the best pitcher the past month..............i never said anything about anyone outside of that........until i said that Haren has been the best all year.....and that to this point Kershaw and Lincecum's numbers have been comparble (or pretty damn close)
it is a fact....................
Kershaw BAA= .193
Lincecum BAA= .222
puts more pressure on a pitcher to go out and perform every game knowing that itmay be the difference in advancing or not advancing...............playing on a shitty team makes the learning process a little more barable..............plus Kershaw being a youngster (21) up to majors at 20 years old makes what he has done even more impressive...........
i didnt say anything about learning to pitch............i shows no more "projection".......of course he can learn a splitty/change or whatever that can improve his pitching, but every other pitcher and their mother can also do that...........projection mean improvement on the pitches you already have...............
hypothetical game 7 of the World Series last year............you are the manager and you have 2 fresh pitchers..........Greg Maddox and his 4 CY Young awards (proven pitcher) or Tim Lincecum (Potential)?
potential is 50% of baseball......................every superstar was a prospect when they entered pro ball.................of course in some instances potential turned to shit.................
the Giants believe in potential or they would be trading away Burngarmer and Alderson.......Posey and Villanueva................
potential means alote or else the Dodgers would have given the Twins Broxton, Kershaw and Kemp for Johan Santana like they wanted.......
potential means alote in baseball...........while the Red Sox thought they overestimated the potential of their top prospect and the Marlins thought the Red Sox were not correctly accessing Hanley Ramirez potential and decided that he was worth more than Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (which he is BTW)...........
and those numbers mean what exactly? please post something that can be read and understood..........
when did i say he wasNT the best pitcher............my original post was that Kershaw has been the best pitcher the past month..............i never said anything about anyone outside of that........until i said that Haren has been the best all year.....and that to this point Kershaw and Lincecum's numbers have been comparble (or pretty damn close)
hard to be the best pitcher the past month when youve pitched less innings.. id agree if he pitched around the same amount, but its not even close.. we're talking games of differences here not just a few innings. We're talking about 4 games, give or take difference.
Kershaw is not better than Lincecum.. not even for a months span.. talk to me when kershaw pitches complete games and shutouts.. and dont even start on the whole protecting arm shit.. dont make me get all scientific up in this bitch.
Kershaw is not better than Lincecum.. not even for a months span.. talk to me when kershaw pitches complete games and shutouts.. and dont even start on the whole protecting arm shit.. dont make me get all scientific up in this bitch.
i just watch the Dodgers (lol), coach a high level travel team.........help with recruiting for Cencal and NorCal baseball..........connections with scouts in the Giants, Mets, and White Sox organizations........
ok, whatever you say bud..........
oh, so you have been following Kershaw........just like you were following Anderson in the same division as Kershaw?
well, all i got to say is your eyes are working fine........but your brain is that of a MLB fan and not a person who can eveluate and project what players should be like 3, 4, 5 years down the road
ok, whatever you say bud..........
oh, so you have been following Kershaw........just like you were following Anderson in the same division as Kershaw?
well, all i got to say is your eyes are working fine........but your brain is that of a MLB fan and not a person who can eveluate and project what players should be like 3, 4, 5 years down the road
@ LADodgers: Kershaw has been good as of late, but he's benefiting from good defense behind him as evidenced by his FIP being 3.42 vs his 2.95 ERA and he's also been getting lucky...his BABIP is .248, he'll certainly regress...
Wrong, he did have his change last season (threw it 18.5% of the time). Here's a great article on the pitch:
Lincecum’s Great Changeup
by Dave Allen - July 15, 2009 ·
Last night Tim Lincecum was the youngest pitcher to start an all-star game since Dwight Gooden. Lincecum is having a great year, striking out over 10.5 batter per nine, with, having cut his walk rate for the third year in a row, a K/BB over four. He is best known for his electric fastball, but interestingly this year he is throwing it a bit less (59% of the time versus 66% of the time in 2008 and 2007) and the average speed has dropped from 94 mph to 92.5 mph. It looks like Lincecum is learning to take a little off the fastball and mix in his curve and changeup more often.
His curveball is quite good, worth about one run per 100 pitches over the past three years. It is has lots vertical movement-12 to 6 break-and induces nearly a 30% whiff rate. He throws it about equally to lefties and righties, about 16% of the time.
His changeup is a great pitch. He throws it more to lefties (24% of the time), but still throws it to righties fairly often (16%) a testament to how good it is. The pitch has been worth 5.28 runs per 100 pitches this year, which is just incredible. Of pitchers who have thrown more than a handful of changes the next closest is Josh Johnson’s worth 3.8 runs per 100. Among starting pitcher’s changeups it is second to only Rich Harden’s in whiff rate. It is a huge reason for his success.
Of course you cannot evaluate his changeup in a vacuum, since its success is predicated on his fastball. Here is the average run value, change in run expectancy, of changeup based on the number of fastballs that preceded it in an at-bat. The numbers are averaged over his career not just 2009.
After the first fastball the success almost doubles, where it stays until, as the at-bat lengthens, it falls back off. The two pitches average about 9 mph difference in speed. Here is the change in run value for his changeup based on its difference in speed from the previous fastball. The gray lines are error bars.
As you can see the success of Lincecum’s changeup is very much influenced by his fastball. When he is throwing it 8 to 10 mph slower than his fastball (as he does on average) he is successful. When it gets too slow or too fast, he is not as successful.
Changeups have no platoon split and as with other pitchers who succeed on the strength of a great changeup Lincecum shows almost no platoon split. It will be fun to continue to watch the career of this great young pitcher getting it done with a superlative changeup-fastball combo.
Wrong, he did have his change last season (threw it 18.5% of the time). Here's a great article on the pitch:
Lincecum’s Great Changeup
by Dave Allen - July 15, 2009 ·
Last night Tim Lincecum was the youngest pitcher to start an all-star game since Dwight Gooden. Lincecum is having a great year, striking out over 10.5 batter per nine, with, having cut his walk rate for the third year in a row, a K/BB over four. He is best known for his electric fastball, but interestingly this year he is throwing it a bit less (59% of the time versus 66% of the time in 2008 and 2007) and the average speed has dropped from 94 mph to 92.5 mph. It looks like Lincecum is learning to take a little off the fastball and mix in his curve and changeup more often.
His curveball is quite good, worth about one run per 100 pitches over the past three years. It is has lots vertical movement-12 to 6 break-and induces nearly a 30% whiff rate. He throws it about equally to lefties and righties, about 16% of the time.
His changeup is a great pitch. He throws it more to lefties (24% of the time), but still throws it to righties fairly often (16%) a testament to how good it is. The pitch has been worth 5.28 runs per 100 pitches this year, which is just incredible. Of pitchers who have thrown more than a handful of changes the next closest is Josh Johnson’s worth 3.8 runs per 100. Among starting pitcher’s changeups it is second to only Rich Harden’s in whiff rate. It is a huge reason for his success.
Of course you cannot evaluate his changeup in a vacuum, since its success is predicated on his fastball. Here is the average run value, change in run expectancy, of changeup based on the number of fastballs that preceded it in an at-bat. The numbers are averaged over his career not just 2009.
>+-------------------+----------------+
|#Preceding FB | Run Val of CH |
+-------------------+----------------+
| 0 | -0.014 |
| 1 | -0.026 |
| 2 | -0.028 |
| 3 | -0.023 |
| 4+ | -0.010 |
+-------------------+----------------+
|#Preceding FB | Run Val of CH |
+-------------------+----------------+
| 0 | -0.014 |
| 1 | -0.026 |
| 2 | -0.028 |
| 3 | -0.023 |
| 4+ | -0.010 |
+-------------------+----------------+
After the first fastball the success almost doubles, where it stays until, as the at-bat lengthens, it falls back off. The two pitches average about 9 mph difference in speed. Here is the change in run value for his changeup based on its difference in speed from the previous fastball. The gray lines are error bars.
As you can see the success of Lincecum’s changeup is very much influenced by his fastball. When he is throwing it 8 to 10 mph slower than his fastball (as he does on average) he is successful. When it gets too slow or too fast, he is not as successful.
Changeups have no platoon split and as with other pitchers who succeed on the strength of a great changeup Lincecum shows almost no platoon split. It will be fun to continue to watch the career of this great young pitcher getting it done with a superlative changeup-fastball combo.
WHOA WHOA WHOA... YOU WANNA WHIP EM' OUT AND COMPARE YOU FUCKIN FAGGOT???? BIG FUCKIN WOW. GO PUT YOUR FUCKING HELMET ON AND BE A FUCKING TRAVELING COACH. WHAT YOU DIDNT INCLUDE IN THE ABOVE COMMENT IS THAT YOU HAVE AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF TIME ON YOUR HANDS AND RATHER THAN HELP THE COMMUNITY OR FIND A HOBBY YOU PARTICIPATE IN 10 FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUES AND SIT AROUND AND READ BASEBALL STATISTICS THE SAME WAY FAT DIVORCED BITCHES READ GOSSIP MAGAZINES. QUIT JERKING OFF ALL DAY OVER KERSHAW AND FIND SOMETHING TO DO. SOMETIMES I DO ENJOY YOUR OPINION BUT YOU CONSTANTLY POST ONLY AT THE ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT OTHERS. HISTORY WILL JUDGE HOW RIGHT YOU ARE. MOST TIMES YOU ARE VERY VERY VERY CAREFUL WITH WHAT YOU SAY. BUT THE REASON THEY PLAY BASEBALL IS BECAUSE ANYTHING HAPPENS. SO STOP EATING YOUR FUCKING CHEETOS AND DODGER DICK. ITS NOT A COMBO MEAL, AND IT DOESNT SOMEHOW MAKE YOUR OPINION SUPREME. OTHERS WHO POST HERE, DO KNOW ABOUT BASEBALL, AND MAYBE INSTEAD OF COACH, THEY PLAYED AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
