At Middleweight, Three Heads Ain’t Better Than One
By Cliff Rold
Middleweight could be an exciting division, one with contests intriguing enough to raise an anticipatory sweat on the palms of fans and excited butterflies in their guts.
It might be that division by the end of the year.
It isn’t right now.
This Saturday, 26-year old lineal World Champion Kelly Pavlik (34-1, 30 KO, Ring/WBC/WBO) makes his second defense of the title he won so dramatically in September 2007. It was the culmination of a meteoric year which saw the Youngstown, Ohio native explode into the elite with knockout wins on HBO over Jose Luis Zertuche, Edison Miranda, and finally Jermain Taylor for the crown.
In those three bouts, he went from question mark to answer.
As 2009 begins, there are questions again. Pavlik won his first two outings in 2008, first in a tough non-title rematch with Taylor at Super Middleweight and then in a walkover against Willie Standup (Gary Lockett). The Taylor bout was a contractual obligation, Lockett a mandatory and typical easy first defense for a young champion. Pavlik followed with another staple: the new lion set up to finish the old one in a Light heavyweight-ish (catchweight) bout.
Bernard Hopkins wasn’t in the mood to pass torches and instead set fire to Pavlik at mid-ring in Atlantic City. Over twelve full, Hopkins was hard pressed to lose seconds much less rounds of the fight. The 44-year old took the 26-year old to school, leaving some to logically ask how good the 26-year old really is.
It’s not the same as whether or not he’s generally good. He’s the champ; it didn’t happen by accident. If he never won another fight, he could know he had a career most fighters only dream about.
Still, at Middleweight, once atop the mountain, the bar is higher. The history is too long, the roster of champions too deep for good to be good enough.
Bad loss or not, the Hopkins bout was just a single loss. The opportunities can still present themselves to Pavlik to go from good to very good.
Even, maybe, great.
Marco Antonio Rubio (43-4-1, 37 KO) won’t get him there. It’s not a knock on Rubio. He too is a good fighter. He’s had a couple bad losses, more exciting wins, and earned his shot. Most objective ratings have him firmly entrenched in the top ten. A champion defending against a top ten contender is perfectly acceptable.
The problem at 160 lbs. right now is the gap between Pavlik, his two top contenders, and everyone else, is sizable. Below Pavlik are 28-year old IBF titlist Arthur Abraham (28-0, 23 KO) and 30-year old Felix Sturm (31-2-1, 13 KO). Abraham has held his title since 2005 with wins over game pros like Kingsley Ikeke and Miranda. Sturm has been a WBO and now two-time WBA beltholder since 2003 and, aside from a shocking loss to veteran Javier Castillejo, been a consistent force. His most recent win was a dominant decision against top ten contender Sebastian Sylvester. It may have been his best performance. Both, like Pavlik, remain in the proven good category with the chance for great still well off in the distance.
By the spring, they will likely be joined by either a resurgent former World Jr. Middleweight champion in Winky Wright (51-4-1, 25 KO) or the currently surging Paul Williams (36-1, 27 KO). We’ll know who after Wright-Williams on April 11th. Until the result is in, Middleweight remains a three dog race.
And none of the right dogs seem any closer to running on the same track.
There have been some teases. Sturm-Abraham got into the trash talking, show me the money phase in the press last year. Pavlik’s promoter, Bob Arum, has mentioned both German-based titlists as potential foes for his charge. Representatives of both Sturm and Abraham, and the fighters, have indicated willingness to face Pavlik as well.
Eventually.
Last week, Arum indicated he might have his eyes on John Duddy (25-0, 17 KO) first.
The New York-based Duddy is a fun fighter to watch but his record to date indicates a challenge closer to Lockett than Rubio.
As noted by BoxingScene’s Mark Vester on February 14, Arum told the Vindicator:
“There is a difference between the best fight and the biggest fight. The biggest fight is financial and the best fight is ... what boxing people would regard as the best fight. That clearly seems to me to be Abraham. But financially, nobody knows who Abraham is in this country. And it’s very, very hard turning it into the biggest fight,” Arum said to The Vindicator. “I’ve talked to both German promoters. I am confident at some time we’ll be able to do those fights.”
“You have to feed two thoroughbreds and sometimes you can only feed them with one pail. It is a problem, but it’s not an insurmountable problem. Duddy is certainly a big name. That could be a monster fight either in Cleveland or Madison Square Garden. It might not appeal to you as the best fight out there — Abraham probably would — but it’s probably bigger than the Abraham fight.”
One could counter Arum’s statement with an obvious question: big name to whom? There is no denying Pavlik-Duddy could be a gate draw in New York or Ohio but big name? Most American fight fans outside of the Northeast haven’t actually seen much of Duddy. He hasn’t had a slew of free major U.S. television appearances, certainly nothing with the profile of Abraham’s rematch of Edison Miranda on Showtime last year.
And nothing in the stratosphere of Strum’s highly controversial 2004 ‘loss’ to Oscar De la Hoya seen both on pay-per-view and HBO replay.
It’s not mutually exclusive of course. If Pavlik defeats Rubio as expected and can cash in to face Duddy, it’s not bad for the sport. This weekend’s fight has proven a solid draw in Youngstown and a raucous Garden crowd never hurts. Bigger tests can come after pockets are lined.
Could the pocket lining assumed be overstated? If last October’s Hopkins-Pavlik proved anything, it’s that ‘big names’ don’t necessarily translate to interested fans. The fight didn’t exactly set the pay-per-view sales numbers on fire. Paying customers who can’t get to the arena know a good fight when they see it and it’s hard to believe there are more fans who, given the slightest bit of education (i.e. smart promotion), would want to see Pavlik-Duddy over Pavlik-Abraham.
There’s sleight of hand in saying otherwise.
For now, it is what it is. Pavlik-Rubio will be followed by Abraham vs. Lujuan Simon (21-0-2, 12 KO) on March 14th and then Sturm-Koji Sato (14-0, 13 KO) on April 25th. They’re all decent fights on paper; they might be more than decent in the ring as a pleasant surprise. If the favorites win, they can keep taking fights like these for years and make a living.
Such schedules would produce few pre-fight butterflies, and little thrill of the unknown, for fans. There won’t any of that until these top three start whittling down to one.
The fluttering starts when the good are challenged to be more than that.