One thing that I think Fedor fell victim to ( even him saying he relied on himself to much ) and what alot of MMA fighters do is when there striking improves they start to rely on that a little to much.
Look at his last 3 fights, he KO's Rogers, Arlovski, and even though he sub'd Sylvia he rocked him with quite a few punches prior to that. Like many others have posted on here, he thought that he had Werdum hurt and went in for the kill, while the Fedor of old would have taken more caution and not put himself in that position.
This is his first true loss and he will learn from it, I look forward to his next fight.