No team beats itself like the Seahawks
Dinged up and forced to travel 2,800-plus miles on a short week, you’d think the Eagles’ chances of winning in Seattle to maintain the bleakest of playoff hopes would be small. But a closer look at the Seahawks’ ineptitude tells a different story… one closer to what Trevor Laws was thinking.
Discipline has been a major problem for Pete Carroll’s squad. According to Pro Football Focus, no team has been hurt more by penalties this season than the Seahawks. They rank dead last with an offensive penalty score of minus-22.1 and 31st with a defensive penalty score of minus-17.1.
These scores are derived from PFF’s play-by-play evaluation of each position. The sheer number of penalties counts, but so does the nature and timing of them.
The Seahawks’ offensive tackles have killed them with flags. Starters Russell Okung and James Carpenter have racked up nine apiece, which is significant because only three of 188 qualifying offensive linemen have been called for more. Carpenter, now lost to injured reserve with a torn ACL, was replaced last Sunday by Breno Giacomini, who was penalized three times for 35 yards in Carpenter’s stead.
Going up against a usually fierce pass rush, these young tackles could be overwhelmed, possibly even false starting from Seattle’s own loud crowd.
Pressure is always key, but in this game a pass rush will win it or lose it for the Eagles. In addition to the Seahawks’ offensive line issues, quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is struggling to do anything positive with a pass rush in his face. On plays under pressure, Jackson is 39-for-104 (37.5 percent) for 4.6 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, eight interceptions and a QB Rating of 27.0. Without pressure, Jackson’s completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt and a 96.0 quarterback rating.
We’ve touched on Seattle’s biggest flaw, so now let’s acknowledge its biggest strength: run defense. The Seahawks are allowing 3.5 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL. Their defensive tackle trio of Alan Branch, Brandon Mebane and Big Red Bryant has combined to make 53 solo defensive stops and grade out to better than 35 points above average in the run game.
Two levels behind them, safety Earl Thomas – who many Eagles fans clamored for in the 2010 draft – has been great at stopping the run. Only four of 88 qualifying safeties have a higher score than Thomas (plus-4.7) in the run game.
The good thing for the Eagles is that Seattle doesn’t have much of a pass rush. Sure, former Bird Chris Clemons has been great – among 4-3 defensive ends, only Chris Long of St. Louis has more QB pressures – but nobody else on the Seattle defense has gotten to the passer. Those three aforementioned defensive tackles may be plus-35.1 in the run game, but they’re also minus-15.6 in pass rush.
In the secondary, again come the penalties. Cornerback Brandon Browner has amassed 11 through 11 games. No other corner in the NFL has committed more than eight penalties.
Andy Reid’s team is prone to beating itself. But even if the Eagles beat themselves again Thursday, the Seahawks could very well beat themselves more.
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