The money might be there for a bat, but maybe Sabean will stand pat
Sometime this week or next, managing general partner Bill Neukom is expected to sit down with his Giants partners and discuss the issue of taking on payroll for a potential midseason acquisition. Neukom has the authority to spend what he needs to spend, within limits, but he wants to hear all opinions and keep everyone in the loop.
This could be an important meeting if, say, a Jermaine Dye becomes available. With an $11.5 million salary this year plus a $1 million buyout for his option, even two months of Dye would cost more than $4 million. That's a big chunk of change in a recession.
This is what I've been led to believe from various conversations: The money might be there to make a deal, but the cost in prospects to acquire an impact bat might be prohibitive.
Just look at a couple of deals already done. To get Mark DeRosa from Cleveland, the Cardinals had to part with a major-league, power bullpen arm (Chris Perez) and a player to be named who I understand will be a top-level prospect -- all for three months of DeRosa. Scott Hairston is a nice outfielder, too, but Billy Beane gave up three prospects to get him. Imagine, then, what it will take for GM Brian Sabean to extract a legitimate middle-order hitter.
There's a lot of posturing this time of year, so it's tough to delineate truth and fiction, but Indians GM Mark Shapiro has said Victor Martinez is going nowhere. The Pirates, after trading away so many popular players over the years, might see their stadium torched if they moved Freddy Sanchez for anything less than a Pablo Sandoval type. (Forget the fact that Sanchez is not a middle-order hitter.)
In spring training, GM Brian Sabean acknowledged that he was cobbling a list of players on franchises that might feel the financial need to unload salary because of the economy. He didn't say which teams those were, but I imagine the Pirates are one. Others could have been the Astros and Marlins, but both are now contending. In the NL, almost everyone is contending.
In short, this trade season is shaping up to be another sellers' market, and Sabean has said time and time again he will not mortgage the future for instant gratification. Yesterday, he also told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News that he is no longer interested in rent-a-players either, as he said he was during the desperation of mid-May.
In the clubhouse, there seems to be no Ryan Brauns demanding Sabean do something. One veteran told me yesterday, "I wouldn't do one thing." That might be a little shortsighted. As the Giants showed Sunday against Roy Oswalt, their lineup can be vulnerable against the type of starting pitcher they might face in the playoffs.
On the other hand, consider this: With six games to go before the break, the Giants have 45 wins. Let's say for the sake of argument they split the six games and go into the break with 48. Now, look at the first-half win totals from 1997-2004, the Sabean Salad Days: 51. 52, 50, 46, 46, 49 (the World Series year), 57, 49.
I'm not suggesting Sabean needs to stand pat or be complacent because of a good first half, but I am saying the Giants seem to be on the brink of something; and while he might be tempted to overpay for a bat out of a need to "go for it" this year, I think he understands that a Tim Alderson-for-Jermaine Dye deal would hurt the franchise in the long haul far more than it would help in the short term.
In summary, this could be a quiet trading season for the Giants unless one or two teams fall by the wayside quickly, either competitively or financially. If so, it could be fascinating to see how far this team, as is, could go.
Posted By: Henry Schulman (Email) | July 07 2009 at 10:39 AM