Xbox 360 for now, and for as long as Sony prices themselves out of the game.
It's hard to recommend the PS3 to anyone with that price point, even if it had the killer apps they're promising for the future.
Bring the price down, and then we can talk about those PS3 exclusives.
Just don't count on MGS4 staying exclusive.
The Final Fantasy series isn't promised either since Square Enix just dropped a hint a few days ago.
God of War 3? Maybe but keep in mind that David Jaffe, the original game's creator left Sony to start his dev studio.
What's left? Sony first party titles, Rachet & Clank, Grand Turismo, Killzone, etc....
I'd recommend the Wii if you're really into casual gaming, but it's definately not for the hardcore....