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May 7, 2013
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So if I have a few g's to invest

what are my first steps in doing so?
1. You are already smarter than the average person in the market who throws their money in the market like a game of darts blindfolded.

2. Read in-depth about Supply and Demand trading indicators, as well as shorting strategies, before throwing a single cent into this market. There are multiple systems and strategies but understanding these two areas will potentially open up profitable opportunity.

3. Get that money breh
 
May 7, 2013
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TECH BUBBLE GOES POP.....AGAIN?


For Silicon Valley, the Hangover Begins
With venture-capital investors increasingly nervous, once-hot tech startups are retrenching


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Who Lives And Dies In A Down Economy
The Bay Area is well-acquainted with boom and bust cycles, and while it’s too soon to declare that the tech economy has turned, recruiters see early indicators that it’s happening.


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[ame="http://www.siliconvalleycf.org/docs/cip/ImmigrationBrief_web.pdf"]Silicon Valley Community Foundation Immigration Brief[/ame]

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Chowdhry offers the following tally of what he thinks layoffs will look like:

EMC: Total Employees: 70,000: Between 15% to 20% layoffs = between 10,000 and 14,000

VMWare: Total Employees:17,000: Between 10% and 15% layoffs = between 1,700 and 2,500

HP Enterprise (HPE): Total Employees 240,000: about 30% layoffs = about 72,000

HP Inc (HPQ): Total Employees 287,000: about 30% layoffs = about 86,000

IBM (IBM): Total Employees 379,000: about 25% layoffs = about 95,000

Cisco (CSCO): Total Employees 72,000: about 20% layoffs = about 14,000

Juniper (JNPR): Total Employees 8,800: about 15% layoffs = about 1,300

Oracle (ORCL): Total Employees 132,000: about 20% layoffs = about 26,000

Microsoft (MSFT): Total Employees 118,000: about 15% layoffs = about 18,000 (Microsoft is letting go about 200 to 250 people every week, and none of these are ever announced)

Network Appliance (NTAP): Total Employees: 12,800: about 15% layoffs= about 1,800

Symantec (SYMC): Total Employees: 19,000: about 15% layoffs = about 2,800

F5 Networks (FFIV):Total Employees: 4,500: about 10% layoffs = about 450

Yahoo (YHOO): Total Employees 12,500: about 30% layoffs = about 3,500

Yelp (YELP): Total Employees 3,671: about 30% layoffs = about 1,000
 
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FILED UNDER THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS

Morgan Stanley Set To Pay $3.2 Billion For 2008 Financial Collapse, Only 2% Of What They Borrowed



By Brianna Acuesta

Morgan Stanley’s settlement for $3.2 billion pales in comparison to what they borrowed.

While some may claim that the settlements made with big banks in recent years are better than nothing or are significant amounts, no matter how much that bank borrowed in 2008-2009, to say that these settlements are minuscule at best is an understatement. Last month, Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks in the world and biggest borrowers in the 2008 financial crisis, agreed to pay $3.2 billion in a settlement with federal authorities.

Although $3.2 billion may seem like a lot of money, and it absolutely is for people not in the investment banking business, let’s compare this settlement to other settlements reached in relation to the crisis. JPMorgan reached a $13 billion settlement, Citigroup reached a $7 billion agreement, and Bank of America agreed to a “historic” settlement of $16.6 billion. Compared to these hefty settlements, $3.2 billion really doesn’t seem like much, especially considering Morgan Stanley borrowed more than almost any other bank during the crisis.

What role did the banks play in the collapse of the housing market and the financial crisis that ensued? They lied and were extremely irresponsible with the mortgage packages they were selling. They would give the loan a high rating of security when it actually had risky factors inside of it and handed them out like candy to people that weren’t likely to be able to pay them back. This is just the tip of the iceberg of the illegal and irresponsible practices Morgan Stanley was involved in, among many other banks, but these practices essentially caused the biggest financial crisis in America since the Great Depression. Why did the banks allow this to happen? Oscar-winning film The Big Short, which details the discovery of the impending economic collapse, suggests that the big banks knew that the government would have to bail them out to protect the country from an even bigger collapse. And bail them out, they did.

In 2008, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was founded as a group that would allocate funds to bail out the banks that were failing and essential to the economy. Rather than nationalize the banks in an effort to protect taxpayers, whose money was essentially buying out the banks, the corrupt Federal Reserve gave money to the banks so they could stay afloat and remain independent. The banks wound up receiving about $700 billion as reported by TARP, but this was only a fraction of how much the Federal Reserve spent, lent, or guaranteed, which was estimated to be $7.7 trillion. How big does the $3.2 settlement look now?
 
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"The semiconductor industry sets the pace of global economic growth, more so than any other single sector, and its vitality is a leading indicator of the world's economic health."

_http://fmwww.bc.edu/repec/esAUSM04/up.12342.1077846183.pdf

Abstract
Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking
indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these
indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, investments, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is assessed by Granger causality tests. The VAR model is also used to derive the dynamic paths of adjustment of global chip sales in response to shocks in each of the leading variables. These impulse response functions confirm the leading qualities of the selected indicators. Finally, out-of-sample forecasts of global chip sales are generated from the VAR model and compared with predictions from a univariate model as well as a model which uses a composite index of the leading indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of the univariate model and comparable to that of the composite index model.
 
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Commodity Watch of the Decade
Is trading Niobium production companies a watch/ buy or all hype?
What companies are publicly traded? Not many at this time (two listed below)



Niobium, formerly columbium, is a chemical element with symbol Nb (formerly Cb) and atomic number 41. It is a soft, grey, ductile transition metal, which is often found in the pyrochlore mineral, the main commercial source for niobium, and columbite.

It was not until the early 20th century that niobium was first used commercially. Brazil is the leading producer of niobium and ferroniobium, an alloy of niobium and iron which has a niobium content of 60-70%. Niobium is used mostly in alloys, the largest part in special steel such as that used in gas pipelines. Although these alloys contain a maximum of 0.1%, the small percentage of niobium enhances the strength of the steel. The temperature stability of niobium-containing superalloys is important for its use in jet and rocket engines. Niobium is used in various superconducting materials. These superconducting alloys, also containing titanium and tin, are widely used in the superconducting magnets of MRI scanners. Other applications of niobium include its use in welding, nuclear industries, electronics, optics, numismatics, and jewelry. In the last two applications, niobium's low toxicity and ability to be colored by anodization are particular advantages.


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The Niobium Landscape
There are only three producing Niobium mines in the world. Despite Quebec’s
role with Niobec, the real player is Brazil, the world’s largest producer of niobium
(92%), followed by Canada. There are also a number of Niobium explorers with
ambitions to move to production.
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Brazil’s Richest Family Forging $13 Billion Niobium Dream

In 1965, U.S. Navy Admiral Arthur W. Radford persuaded Walther Moreira Salles, a Brazilian banker and former ambassador to the U.S., to back a venture to produce something called niobium.

Moreira Salles decided to buy a majority stake in the operation, and the bet paid off. Today, the metal is present in a 10th of all new steel produced globally, for use in cars, oil pipelines and jet engines. After gradually buying out Molycorp’s interest, the family now produces 85 percent of the world’s niobium.

That market dominance has helped make the mogul’s heirs Brazil’s richest family. His four sons, Fernando, Pedro, Joao and Walter, control a combined fortune of $27 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.


Niobium technology supplier - CBMM (no public offering)
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Niocorp Developments Ltd.
OTC: NIOBF
$0.64
Change
+0.02 +2.58%
Volume
43,757
May 19, 2016, 3:06 p.m.

NIOBF Stock Quote - Niocorp Developments Ltd. Stock Price Today (NIOBF:OTC) - MarketWatch

Business Description

NioCorp is developing North America's only niobium / scandium / titanium project. Located near Elk Creek, Nebraska, the Elk Creek Project is the highest grade niobium project in North America, as well as the largest prospective producer of scandium in the world.

NioCorp is positioned to emerge as the United States' only producer of niobium and scandium. These elements are unique and valuable superalloy materials that are strategic and critical to many industries and national defense technologies.

U.S. Geological Society description of Elk Creek Carbonatite

"The Elk Creek carbonatite, located south of Lincoln, has the potential to be one of the largest global resources of niobium and rare-earth elements (REE). These REE's have many important applications in industry, including petroleum-cracking catalysis, steel alloying, and glass polishing, and as sources of permanent magnets and phosphorus for television and lighting.

The Elk Creek carbonatite is buried beneath about 500 feet of overlying rock and is known only from drill cores, which, until recently, have remained proprietary. Scientists from the USGS and the Conservation and Survey Division (CSD) of the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska--Lincoln have studied drill cores."



Niocorp Developments Ltd. - Former Molycorp CEO Mark A. Smith Joins NioCorp Developments Ltd
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Magris Resources acquires, develops and operates mining assets on a global basis | Magris Resources (private equity firm)
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MDN Inc.
CVE: CA:MDN
$0.04
Change
-0.0050 -12.50%
Volume
67,233
May 19, 2016, 10:12 a.m

[ame]http://mdn-mines.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/factsheet_2015-08-05_en.pdf[/ame]
 
May 7, 2013
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"The semiconductor industry sets the pace of global economic growth, more so than any other single sector, and its vitality is a leading indicator of the world's economic health."

_http://fmwww.bc.edu/repec/esAUSM04/up.12342.1077846183.pdf

Abstract
Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking
indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these
indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, investments, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is assessed by Granger causality tests. The VAR model is also used to derive the dynamic paths of adjustment of global chip sales in response to shocks in each of the leading variables. These impulse response functions confirm the leading qualities of the selected indicators. Finally, out-of-sample forecasts of global chip sales are generated from the VAR model and compared with predictions from a univariate model as well as a model which uses a composite index of the leading indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of the univariate model and comparable to that of the composite index model.


The PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX) is a Philadelphia Stock Exchange capitalization-weighted index composed of companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.

Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX), now known as NASDAQ OMX PHLX, is the oldest stock exchange in the United States, founded in 1790. It is now owned by The NASDAQ OMX Group.
 

GHP

Sicc OG
Jul 21, 2002
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The tech bubble is bound to pop hard in the bay area, you cant buy a house in my home town of Redwood City for less than a million bucks, cheapest 1br apartment I saw on CL was 1900 bucks lol.. A person could flip 2 3br/2ba mortgages in nice neighborhoods in the Phoenix area for that type of bread. somethings got to give. I cant mathematically figure out how people survive out there, does google pay people 30 bucks an hour to take out the trash? Only a small percentage of the population out there has the skillset to make any real money for a tech company.. Its gotta b hard for the non computer wizzes to live out there.
 
May 7, 2013
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I've never directly shorted anything.
Plenty of option Puts, but shorts are too aggresive for me.
I don't mind risk but shorting and margins...no thank you.
I hear you. I believe it's highly overvalued. The chart below shows it loves to flirt with/at/near the 52 week high and then.......falls down:

 
May 7, 2013
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Druckenmiller: Get out of the stock market, own gold



Legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller told Sohn Investment Conference attendees to sell their equity holdings Wednesday.

"The conference wants a specific recommendation from me. I guess 'Get out of the stock market' isn't clear enough," said Druckenmiller from the conference stage in New York. Gold "remains our largest currency allocation."

The billionaire investor expressed skepticism about the current investment environment due to Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy and a slowing Chinese economy.
"The Fed has borrowed from future consumption more than ever before. It is the least data dependent Fed in history. This is is the longest deviation from historical norms in terms of Fed dovishness than I have ever seen in my career," Druckenmiller said. "This kind of myopia causes reckless behavior."




Here’s How George Soros’s Latest Predictions Have Played Out



George Soros, the 85-year-old billionaire who broke the Bank of England in 1992, is becoming more involved in day-to-day trading at his family office, taking a series of big, bearish bets.
Soros is best known for netting $1 billion as a hedge fund manager decades ago when he and his then-chief strategist Stan Druckenmiller wagered that the U.K. would be forced to devalue the pound. His predictions haven’t always played out so well.
Anticipating weakness in various global markets, his Soros Fund Management cut its publicly disclosed U.S. stock holdings by 37 percent in the first quarter while buying shares of gold miners and an exchange-traded fund tracking the price of the precious metal.
Since then, the S&P 500 Index has returned 3.1 percent. Barrick Gold Corp., his largest new position disclosed in the quarter, fared better, jumping 44 percent.
 
May 6, 2002
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My initial buy target was $10, but I thought no way it will ever reach that.
Then the report about the leaks + Instagram surpassing Twitter for the first time. That just hammered the stock today. Still above the 52 week low, but ya, let's see. I have ZERO interest holding TWTR long term. Was just trying to grab a dollar or two per shared.

Let's see.
I still rather own this than Chipotle.
haha...
 
Apr 25, 2002
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Bunch of financial experts in here.

You want to build wealth? Buy stocks of good companies with good dividends - and hold them for 20 years.

Repeat every month, 3 months, 6 months, annually - whatever, just buy repeatedly - and buy different companies in different industries.

If you are dollar cost averaging over time, it doesn't matter where the market is at. Just buy repeatedly and hold. You will get at least a 8-10% over the 20 year horizon.

Not many people have the discipline to do that - which is why people want a quick fix.