39.02 -0.07 (-0.18%)
Q. Hi Cody do you think Twitter could ostensibly become a bitcoin or other money transmission mechanism given the secure tech they have and the hypothetical connect the dots between some of the VC’s who back bitcoin and Twitter? Also, related, at what price does TWTR become a buy?
A. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in Twitter’s management’s ability to innovate and their lack of vision for the future. That might get priced into Twitter’s stock at some point, but I think I wouldn’t be tempted to change my bearish stance on TWTR unless it were to fall even another 30%-40% from these levels. At a $15 billion valuation (down from about $21 billion as I type), I’d be interested in getting long Twitter at least for a trade. But I don’t think I’ll ever want to invest in Twitter’s current trajectory and management. Remember this? Cody Willard calls Twitter IPO a “debacle”; $1.6 billion left on the table (from November 7, 2013). I bet TWTR management wish they could go back and get the $2 billion left on the table at the IPO now
Q. Let’s short TWTR?
A. Shoulda’ woulda’ coulda’ shorted Twitter $TWTR back when it hit $60 or whatever. Too little room on the downside target I just gave you for me to want to try to game it for a trade. Here’s a good quote about Twitter’s funk from A Eulogy for Twitter: “Twitter is the platform that led us into the mobile Internet age … Twitter has done for social publishing what AOL did for email … Twitter felt big even when it was dwarfed by social giants like Facebook. More importantly, it felt vibrant. But the truth is that it has always been small. Only now it’s not the treehouse club it once was. Instead, Twitter feels closed off, choked, in a way that makes us want to explore somewhere else for a while.”