The increase in price has nothing to do with demand because ACTUAL or REAL demand has not increased.
You have mentioned this before and I have yet to take issue with it, but you seem to keep reiterating this point.
I feel like I am typing the same thing over and over here.
Again, I have yet to suggest that as you say "actual" demand for oil has increased proportionally to the rise in prices.
I will state this for I believe the 4th time in this thread, the increase in prices is largely a result of indirect demand being created by investors on Wall St. The demand is indirect because they are not directly consuming the resource as someone who puts it in their car is.
However, whether or not they are actually using the resource, doesn't change the fact that what they are doing is influencing the demand side of the equation.
Just because they are speculating doesn't change the fact that their actions are influencing the demand side of the equation.
This is still an issue of unbalanced supply and demand regardless of what is the catalyst for the rise in demand.
Attached is a graph that shows Oil prices from Jan of '07 to Jan of '08. I challenge you to show any data that can show global ACTUAL demand for oil that comes close to corresponding with such a rise in price.
Again see above. I have yet to suggest that actual demand has increased enough to warrant the current rise in price.
A speculator is a person who “does not produce or use the commodity, but risks his or her own capital trading futures in that commodity in hopes of making a profit on price changes.”
Speculators are not investing in a tangible product. They are manipulating futures prices. My contention is that a futures contract bought by a speculator is not the same as demand for contracts for the delivery of a physical barrel today.
You are right, it is not the same. It is however still reflected on the demand side of the equation whether or not they are speculators or direct consumers.
The result is that by purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.
That is the beauty of speculation, and our economic system. The truckers themselves could be buying oil futures to hedge against an increase in prices. The ability to speculate is not limited to Wall St.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BWK&date=20080508&id=8603919
Hopefully you understand now that I have never suggested that actual demand had increased proportionally to the rise in prices. If you go back in read all of my posts I explicitly say that the increase has been cause by “indirect demand” (since speculators are not direct consumers) or “the demand side is being artificially balanced”.
The truckers are still protesting supply & demand economics here.
The protest is illogical.