But, according to two sources who have accurately predicted every bit of this process for almost a year now, Ellison is by no means the only party interested in purchasing the Warriors.
At least five or six other groups have expressed tacit interest over the last year or so. Those groups were told to hold off on expressing official, public interest or even making a general bid until “the gun goes off,” I was told.
Well, the gun went off this morning, with the Warriors’ announcement that they’ve hired Galatioto Sports Partners to facilitate a sale.
Let’s go through a few of the details, as has been explained to me, knowing that things can change rapidly when hundreds of millions of dollars are involved…
* Sal Galatioto is a known presence in ownership circles and he has unofficially been gauging interest in a Warriors purchase for a few months, and passing along the information to Cohan.
Ellison, as is his style, got out early with an aggressive attempt that apparently did not involve GSP.
Ellison’s reported $315M valuing of the franchise (Cohan owns 80%)–believed to have been made in a face-to-face meeting with Cohan last summer–is the only number on the board right now.
* According to my sources, almost all of the major parties interested in the Warriors are looking to possibly move the team to San Francisco, in a newly built (privately financed) arena in Giants’ parking lot adjacent to AT&T Park.
That includes Ellison, I’m told, though I believe he’d want to own the Warriors wherever they play–his company’s name, after all, is on the current arena.
With a bigger sponsorship base and a new luxury downtown arena, the Warriors would almost certainly have a higher revenue stream if they were located in San Francisco.
I’ve heard that the Giants could be involved in several of these forming groups, either as a background partner (remember, they’re also minority owners of Comcast Bay Area) or larger player in the purchase.
Right now, AT&T Park is used about 100 dates a year, for Giants games and concerts, etc. If there’s an arena built next door, that’s possibly another 100 dates for that area, and you can easily imagine more retail and other use of that corridor.
* One keenly interested potential purchaser, I’ve heard, is 24-Hour Fitness founder Mark Mastrov, an East Bay guy who is close to Magic Johnson.
I don’t know if Johnson would be involved as a partner in a Mastrov group (Johnson would have to divest his 5% stake in the Lakers), and I don’t know if a Mastrov purchase would mean an attempt to move to San Francisco.
But Mastrov’s name keeps coming up.
* Jerry West’s name keeps coming up, too, as a potential advisor to Ellison and at least one other group interested.
* The somewhat-surprising very public nature of hiring GSP–with Ellison already bidding–is a fairly blatant attempt by Cohan to draw out auction up a price to contend with Ellison.
That way, either Ellison has to raise his price, or Cohan finds a price from another group that tops the $315M valuing.
I don’t know if Ellison is going to bid any higher–that’s not his style, I’m told. He sets a price, he offers it, and he doesn’t get into auctions that go above his internal valuing of the property.
But we’ll see on this. That’s now up to Sal Galatioto.
* NBA commissioner David Stern has to be overjoyed at this development and I believe he has been pushing hard for this situation to reach this point.
Stern, I have repeatedly been told, believes the Bay Area is a powerhouse market that Cohan has barely tapped–and might have been in the process of destroying.
In fact, after I recently wrote a few times that Stern personally wanted Cohan out, I told a source in the NBA office that if I was in any way wrong, I would stop writing it.
I was not told to stop writing it.
* Could Cohan go this far and then turn around in the summer and not sell? Yes, it’s possible. Anything’s possible.
But it’s not likely. He’s losing money–he’s still getting people to show up to games, but it’s via large discounts and Cohan is staring at a huge payroll for next year.
He’s in trouble. There’s the IRS issue, too, obviously.
And Cohan is unpopular enough–if he recants on his sale attempt after a few months (say, if the Warriors land the No. 1 overall pick), I don’t think he could ever show up again at a Warriors game.
He has no credibility. Zero. Even if the Warriors happen to luck into John Wall, that’s not about Cohan. He’s a goner.
* This could drag out. Sales sometimes do. Lots of money is at stake, background checks are necessary, sometimes offers rise or fall depending on outside influences (stock market, overall economy).
But to go this public, I’m told, means that Cohan is ready to sell this fairly rapidly.
A decent time-frame might look like this…
Bids in a matter of a month or so. Further negotiations over a few more weeks or months.
Possible sale agreement by mid-summer. Logistical and NBA hurdles to clear (which won’t be as swift as the Michael Jordan purchase of the Bobcats, since, well, he’s MJ).
New Warriors owner by August or September, if everything goes about as expected.
That’s what I’m hearing. I’m sure there will be more.