The Cubs entered the final week of spring training in good health with almost all of their position battles settled, save for a tweak here or there. This is a veteran bunch for the most part, and Chicago should be the odds-on favorite to win its third consecutive NL Central title.
Because of the World Baseball Classic, manager Lou Piniella had to wait until almost the end of spring training to put his full lineup together. The biggest thing to be learned is whether center fielder Kosuke Fukudome can bounce back from a horrendous second half of 2008 and bat in the second spot in the order, where Piniella has him penciled in. Other than that, the Cubs should have a potent lineup, one that should threaten to lead the NL in runs again.
The biggest strengths are good balance and pop throughout the lineup and a deep and talented rotation. Right fielder Milton Bradley battled a minor leg injury and a flu bug at various points throughout the spring, but as a switch hitter, he’ll give the Cubs their much-desired powerful presence from the left side on most days. There were few questions about the leadoff spot this spring. Left fielder Alfonso Soriano will keep that job, despite some outcry over the winter to move him down in the order.
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Second baseman Mike Fontenot took the opportunity to replace the popular and versatile Mark DeRosa and ran with it. Fontenot is another left-handed batter who can sting the ball and get on base. Shortstop Ryan Theriot had a nice spring and showed signs that last year’s big season was no fluke.
The Cubs have to be worried about two things: a middle-relief corps that looked shaky at times during spring training, and whether they have enough infield depth.
Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol give the Cubs a solid duo in the back of the ‘pen, with Gregg winning the closer role heading into the season. Aaron Heilman lost out to Sean Marshall for the fifth starter’s spot, and he’ll fill the seventh-inning role. Beyond that, it was hit and miss as Piniella tried to fill out the rest of the relief corps. Neal Cotts is the lone lefty, and he had a good overall spring. Chad Gaudin and Luis Vizcaino were spotty, at best, but they have healthy-sized contracts. It looks as if Jeff Samardzija may open the season in Class AAA as a starter.
In the infield, Aaron Miles figures to be the lone backup on the left side, but he was hampered by soreness in his throwing shoulder. That’s a concern if third baseman Aramis Ramirez needs any time off.
Ahead of Marshall in the rotation, right-hander Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden are solid, as is lefty Ted Lilly. Harden needed time at the end of spring to catch up after a nasty stomach illness, and Lilly was away for the WBC.
THE CUBS WILL CONTEND IF …: Everybody stays healthy. RHPs Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden had cranky shoulders last year (Harden’s problems are chronic), and RF Milton Bradley has a long history of disabled-list stints; he also hasn’t played much outfield in recent years in the American League. The Cubs are the deepest team, both offensively and pitching-wise, in the NL Central. An injury or two to a key player is the only thing that seemingly can derail this team because there isn’t a whole lot of depth.
Primed For A Big Season: RF Milton Bradley seems happy after landing with a team that seems to want him. Bradley led the AL in on-base percentage and on-base-plus-slugging percentage last year. He’s moving from a hitter-friendly park in Texas to another one in Chicago, although the tough sun field at Wrigley could give him trouble.
On The Decline: 1B Derrek Lee has seen his power numbers drop steadily since his monster season of 2005. At 33, Lee may be past his prime. The home runs didn’t come during spring training either, so it seems 20 might be a realistic number for the season.
Notes, Quotes
• C Koyie Hill beat out veteran Paul Bako for the backup job behind reigning Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto. Hill out-hit Bako early in the Cactus League season before Bako came on at the end. However, the Cubs went with Hill over the more experienced Bako because he has been with the organization for the past two years and is familiar with most of the Cubs’ pitchers and minor-leaguers coming up. Hill spent much of the past two seasons at Class AAA Iowa.
• Manager Lou Piniella called the Cubs’ bullpen picture a “blanket finish.” In other words, you can throw a blanket over the four contenders for two spots: RHPs Angel Guzman, Chad Gaudin, Jeff Samardzija and David Patton. All were roughed up in the final days of the Cactus League, as was LHP Neal Cotts, who has made the team.
“I don’t think the bullpen situation is any more clear than it was three or four days ago,” Piniella said as the Cubs left Arizona. “You ever hear of a blanket finish? It’s a blanket finish.”
Samardzija has minor league options, and he’s likely to open the season in the rotation at Class AAA Iowa. The Cubs are trying to trade Gaudin, who has had a miserable spring. Guzman is out of options, but he’s finally injury-free. Patton, a Rule 5 pick, has dazzled the Cubs all spring, even though he has not pitched above Class A. The weekend exhibition games at new Yankee Stadium will tell the story.
• RHP Kevin Gregg was named the closer for the Cubs over RHP Carlos Marmol, considered by many to be an All-Star closer in waiting. “Gregg came in here and hasn’t given up a run all spring,” said Cubs manager Lou Piniella. “I think leaving spring training, we’re a better team the way we’ve put this thing together.” Gregg had 29 saves last year for the Marlins.
• RHP Randy Wells and Kevin Hart were optioned to Class AAA Iowa. Both spent the bulk of last season with Iowa but also appeared with the Cubs.
• OF So Taguchi, part of championship teams with the Cardinals and the Phillies, was reassigned to the Cubs’ minor league camp. He hit .256 this spring.
• LHP Mike Stanton’s comeback bid ended when he was released by the Cubs on March 30. He had a 6.48 ERA in 10 spring games.
• RHP Rich Harden, slowed this spring by a stomach bug, returned to action March 30 and reported that he felt fine. However, he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Royals.
• 3B Corey Koskie called off his comeback after only three games because of concerns about post-concussion syndrome. That’s a worry for the team because the Cubs had hoped the left-handed-hitting Koskie could provide some insurance at third base and as a bat off the bench.
• CF Kosuke Fukudome saw his first Cactus League action March 27 against the White Sox. He was aggressive at the plate, going 1-for-4 in his first game. He also lost a high flyball in the sun. “We’ve got to get him some at-bats,” manager Lou Piniella said. “He’s got to catch up here.”
• RHP Luis Vizcaino was making a late push to secure his spot in the bullpen. Through March 27, he had made three consecutive scoreless outings and five out of six after hitting a rough patch with his control. The Cubs are on the hook for $4 million with Vizcaino, whom they obtained in an offseason trade with the Rockies for RHP Jason Marquis.
• OF Brad Snyder was outrighted to Class AAA Iowa on March 27, thus removing him from the 40-man roster.
By The Numbers: 25—Manager Lou Piniella noted that Alfonso Soriano has run well this spring and that he’d like him to steal 20 or even 25 bases this season. Soriano was hampered by leg problems last year, and he stole 19.
Quote To Note: “My stupidity.”—CF Kosuke Fukudome on why his batting average declined precipitously in the second half of last season.
Roster Report
The Cubs got through spring training relatively unscathed from a health standpoint, but manager Lou Piniella was eager to see his regular-season lineup intact after getting C Geovany Soto and CF Kosuke Fukudome back from the World Baseball Classic. The rotation looks strong, and the only real issue was how Piniella was going to fill out of the middle of his bullpen, an area that looked shaky at times during the Cactus League season.
Rotation:
1. RHP Carlos Zambrano
2. RHP Ryan Dempster
3. LHP Ted Lilly
4. RHP Rich Harden
5. LHP Sean Marshall
Rotation Analysis: This may be the best and deepest rotation in the NL. Zambrano seemed to shrug off concerns about the shoulder problems he had last year as he cruised his way through spring training and earned the Opening Day start. There had been some doubt about that because of Zambrano’s inconsistency last year and the emergence of Dempster, who also had a sold spring on the heels of signing a new four-year contract.
Lilly has been a consistent performer, and the Cubs were eager to get him back from the World Baseball Classic. Harden’s chronically bad shoulder seemed to hold up well after an offseason conditioning program. Marshall beat out several other candidates by a wide margin to win the fifth starter’s job.
Bullpen:
RHP Kevin Gregg (closer)
RHP Carlos Marmol
RHP Aaron Heilman
LHP Neal Cotts
RHP Chad Gaudin
RHP Luis Vizcaino
RHP Jeff Samardzija, RHP Angel Guzman or RHP David Patton
Bullpen Analysis: The bullpen has been overhauled since last season, with the departures of Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, Scott Eyre and Michael Wuertz. The back of the ‘pen looks to be in good hands with Gregg and Marmol. Piniella settled on Gregg as the closer, but he had said there would be save opportunities for both.
Things get a little iffy in the middle. Cotts will be the lone lefty, and he threw the ball well in the spring, continuing a trend that began late last year. Vizcaino and Gaudin both were inconsistent in spring training, raising red flags. Samardzija didn’t help himself in the spring, either. The Cubs have toyed with keeping him a reliever at the big-league level or sending him to Class AAA to start and to work on his second and third pitches.
Lineup:
1. LF Alfonso Soriano
2. CF Kosuke Fukudome
3. 1B Derrek Lee
4. RF Milton Bradley
5. 3B Aramis Ramirez
6. 2B Mike Fontenot
7. C Geovany Soto
8. SS Ryan Theriot
Lineup Analysis: The surprise of all surprises was that there was little or no talk of moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot during spring training. That had been all the rage in Chicago after the Cubs’ second three-and-out in the playoffs, with Soriano among those failing, and flailing, at the plate. Piniella says Soriano is comfortable in the leadoff spot, and that’s pretty much that.
Piniella may be taking a big chance with Fukudome batting second against right-handed pitchers (Reed Johnson will play against lefties and some righties). Fukudome struggled in the second half last year. Piniella may go for this arrangement for a while, but he’s likely to have little patience with Fukudome. Theriot hit second much of last year, and Fontenot can hit there, too.
The other player to watch will be Lee. His power numbers have trended downward in recent years, but Piniella has resisted moving him out of the No. 3 spot.
Reserves:
INF Aaron Miles
C Koyie Hill
OF Reed Johnson
OF Joey Gathright
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir
Reserves Analysis: GM Jim Hendry seems comfortable with his bench, even though it might be a little thin on the left side of the infield. That will become a concern if 3B Aramis Ramirez comes up with a nagging injury. Miles can play third, but he’s best suited in the middle. On top of it, his right shoulder bothered him for much of spring training.
Johnson figures to see a lot of starting time, especially of Kosuke Fukudome falters. Gathright is more of a specialist who will be used for defense and pinch-running. Hoffpauir spent most of spring training leading the majors in RBIs. He’s a left-handed batter and an “older” rookie at 29.
Rookie Watch: There was just no keeping 1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir off the team. He hit 25 homers and drove in 100 runs last in year in only 71 games at Class AAA Iowa. He hit two homers and eight doubles with the Cubs in limited action. He’s 29, and the Cubs feel he may be able to come off the bench and hit, something that can be tough for rookies to do.
RHP David Patton, a Rule 5 draft pick (from Colorado via a trade with the Reds) impressed the Cubs with his aggressiveness in spring training. The team was pushing a decision whether to keep him to the very end of spring training.
Medical Watch:
RHP Rich Harden (chronic right shoulder problems) had the double whammy of coming down with a bad case of food poisoning late in camp. The Cubs are looking at a total of four spring starts for Harden, who is slated to start the fourth game of the regular season. The velocity on the fastball was in the low-90s, and both he and the Cubs say the shoulder is healthy.
INF Aaron Miles (sore right shoulder) nursed the injury through the spring. The Cubs want him to fill in at second base, third base and shortstop. But the shoulder limited him mainly to second base for the second half of the Cactus League season.
1B Derrek Lee (sore right quadriceps) was slowed during spring training. He missed nearly a week but said he would have played had it been the regular season.