Seahawks 2009 schedule
- Thread starter savage
- Start date
Because of stupid ass fans like savage who think seattle will even be a factor in the nfc west lmao. Look, the rams are in full rebuild mode, the seahawks are old as fuck and injury prone, have a new HC who isn't all that great, lost their biggest pass rush, got a WR who drew opponents #2 CB most of the time, and has been a #2 next to one of the best, and expect him to be a #1, nobody wants to play in AZ, that's why they demanding trades out, that lucky bs aint gonna cut it again this year,niners will be nfc west champs, hate it or love it, we back bitches
All 4 teams havé lots of question marks,
Seattle, how will they do without holmgren, can mora be successful without vick, can the team stay healthy, especially hasselbeck,how will the pass rush fare without jp, and on and on.
Cards, super bowl hangover, will god help warner again? Lol, did free agency help or hurt them, when will boldin be traded
SF, who's gonna start at qb, will sing be successful, will vd and crabs give the opposing defenders stds,depth, dre bly, pass rush
But I believe sf has the upper hand due to a few things, they have tons of momentum carrying over from last season, the team upgraded greatly when nolan was fired, we didn't downgrade at any position, except cb, since harris is out for year most likely. Quality depth at every offensive position,upgraded at RT, Gore also has his smashnose FB to open pathways again, he will show he is the best RB in the league
Seattle, how will they do without holmgren, can mora be successful without vick, can the team stay healthy, especially hasselbeck,how will the pass rush fare without jp, and on and on.
Cards, super bowl hangover, will god help warner again? Lol, did free agency help or hurt them, when will boldin be traded
SF, who's gonna start at qb, will sing be successful, will vd and crabs give the opposing defenders stds,depth, dre bly, pass rush
But I believe sf has the upper hand due to a few things, they have tons of momentum carrying over from last season, the team upgraded greatly when nolan was fired, we didn't downgrade at any position, except cb, since harris is out for year most likely. Quality depth at every offensive position,upgraded at RT, Gore also has his smashnose FB to open pathways again, he will show he is the best RB in the league
Chree is right. the 49ers are going to win the NFC West and the NFC all together. they are the best bet. i don't know what i was thinking saying the Seahawks are going to make a comeback from an injury plagued season. all of our starters that got injured last season coming back this season means shit. Matt Hasselbeck isn't going to do well with 4 good receivers. the run game is going to suck, since the 4 good receivers aren't going to do shit. we won't even be one deminsional. we'll just suck all together. since our new HC hasn't done shit in the past except bring his team to the NFC Championship his first year. i'm sure he hasn't matured and became wiser over the years, also while working under holmgren. the 9ers have made the best off season moves and have the best draft pick. they have two of the best qb's fighting for the job. the best oline, the best lb corp, the best d-backs, the best coaching staff. :cheeky:
The only real question mark is the coaching staff, but our staff is more or less the SAME. Why do people act like JP was a superstar? He was a terrible cover guy and they never even let him LOOSE on blitzes like they should have, because Marshall is a retarded person who knows SHIT about defensive schemes and how to utilize players.
We upgraded on the defense line, especially with the acquisition of Redding. Mebane moves to the other side of DT which is his natural position.
Hasselbeck will be fine, but it wasn't him more than it was the WR's. Of course, if the Hawks suffer injuries like they did last year, they will stink it up again....but ANY TEAM would have done the same, so thats not a question or concern rather than a if or nay.[/quote]
The cards benefited from he Hawks being injured. If they are healthy, the Cards stay home, period.
Exactly. THIS is what i meant by SF has the most ?... because they DO.
If you think SF will even be at .500 at the end of the year, you are wearing your homer glasses WAAAAAy too tight.
We upgraded on the defense line, especially with the acquisition of Redding. Mebane moves to the other side of DT which is his natural position.
Hasselbeck will be fine, but it wasn't him more than it was the WR's. Of course, if the Hawks suffer injuries like they did last year, they will stink it up again....but ANY TEAM would have done the same, so thats not a question or concern rather than a if or nay.[/quote]
The cards benefited from he Hawks being injured. If they are healthy, the Cards stay home, period.
Exactly. THIS is what i meant by SF has the most ?... because they DO.
If you think SF will even be at .500 at the end of the year, you are wearing your homer glasses WAAAAAy too tight.
yall think i'm being a homer if i say that the Seahawks will win all of their home games this season?
AZ BOSS, i already know you think your team can beat us in our own turf again, but try to be realistic. same goes for 9er fans. last season was last season. this season isn't last season ovbiously. all of our injured starters are healthy now. so how about it? can the Seahawks win all home games again? i think we may have trouble agasint the Bears. thats about it. i think we can beat the other teams at home. also take a look at the above post. dayum i was drunk when i typed this lol
AZ BOSS, i already know you think your team can beat us in our own turf again, but try to be realistic. same goes for 9er fans. last season was last season. this season isn't last season ovbiously. all of our injured starters are healthy now. so how about it? can the Seahawks win all home games again? i think we may have trouble agasint the Bears. thats about it. i think we can beat the other teams at home. also take a look at the above post. dayum i was drunk when i typed this lol
2008 was a bad season to be an offensive player in the NFL. The Jaguars watched their offensive line fall apart in the first game of the year. The Broncos were pulling running backs out of the mall and tossing them into the starting lineup. Yet when it comes to offensive injuries, those teams couldn’t even touch the Seattle Seahawks.
Which is a good thing, because the slightest touch would probably have broken another Seattle wide receiver. We use Adjusted Games Lost to track how badly each team was hurt by injury in any given season, then break it down by offense and defense.
We currently have this data going back to 1996, and no offense during that span can touch the 2008 Seahawks, whose starters
had 66.3 AGL. No other team has more than 60 AGL from offensive starters; last year’s Bengals come close at 59.8. More than half the teams in that time span came in under 20. Seattle stands well ahead of the curve here.
With most of those players returning to health in 2009, a return to the playoffs is very likely. The Seahawks are the only NFC team that reached the divisional round of the playoffs every year from 2003 to 2007, and many of the players from those teams remain on the roster. However, that also means those players have put on a lot of years. If Seattle misses out on the postseason this year, it may be time to blow up the roster and start over.
The wide receiver injuries started before the season even began, with neither starter Deion Branch nor slot receiver Bobby Engram available at the start of the year. Branch played just one game in the first half of the season. Engram missed all of September. Then in the season opener, Nate Burleson tore his ACL and was out for the year. Logan Payne tore his MCL a week later, and was also out for the year. Billy McMullen and Michael Bumpus were signed off the street in Week 3, and both were lost for the season by Week 6.
At quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck missed five games between October and November, then missed all of December. The situation at offensive line was more stable, but ended in even greater havoc. Sean Locklear missed September with a knee injury. Guard Rob Sims tore his pec in the season opener and, like Burleson, was lost for the year. Things stabilized until mid-November, but then a Seahawks offensive lineman suffered a season-ending injury four times in five weeks. The Seahawks played their last two games of the season with the entire first-stringoffensive line on injured reserve.
When the season was over, the Seahawks had by far the league’s highest Adjusted Games Lost by wide receivers, and were a narrow second to Jacksonville for injuries at offensive line. Only three offensive players had started 12 or more games: Koren Robinson (signed off the street in October), Floyd Womack (supposedly a backup at guard and tackle), and left tackle Walter Jones. Which of these injuries will linger over to 2009? Branch, Burleson, Jones, and left guard Mike Wahle were held out of April drills with various ailments. Matt Hasselbeck is now 34 years old with a history of back troubles, although he has not missed a game in an odd-numbered year since 2001. (In Hasselbeck’s attic, there’s a painting of Chad Pennington that has a separated shoulder in odd-numbered years.) Jones, 35, has missed at least one game in three of the past four seasons, and just had microfracture surgery on his knee. Branch is the most likely player to miss part of 2009. The seven-year pro has only once played all 16 games in a season, and again this year there are questions whether he will be ready for training camp.
The defense was much healthier than the offense last season, suffering only one significant injury, but it was a big one: End Patrick Kerney played his last game in Week 8 against San Francisco. After elbow surgery, Kerney was also held out of spring drills, and is expected to miss the start of this year’s training camp.
Not satisfied to sit back and hope for improved health, Seattle made some major acquisitions over the offseason. Most newsworthy was the free agent signing of wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati.
Though the massively-monikered wideout has been a good possession receiver, leading the league in catches in 2007, he has also been limited to short routes; at least 39 percent of his targets in the past three years have come within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage; last year that number soared to 50 percent. Since Burleson is a somewhat better deep threat than Branch, the plan is to start Burleson and Houshmandzadeh, then move Housh into the slot when Branch comes on the field for third downs.
That trio, along with secondyear tight end John Carlson (whose rookie campaign was one of the very few bright spots at Qwest Field), would make for an impressive set of pass catchers, complementing each other’s styles nicely. Among other new Seahawks, the most notable come on defense. Tackles Colin Cole and Cory Redding were brought in to shore up the run defense, and cornerback Ken Lucas may be the top corner on his new/old team.
All those pale, however, compared to the new defensive star in Seattle: former Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, taken fourth overall in last April’s draft. The Butkus Award winner and consensus top collegiate player available, Curry will start from day one at weakside linebacker, and is expected to excel in pass rushing, pass coverage, and run defense.
Overseeing all this change will be new coach Jim Mora, who has been the team’s defensive backs coach for the past two seasons. The Seahawks ranked 12th in pass coverage in his first season with the club, but sank to 30th last year. One of Mora’s first moves upon being promoted to head coach was to hire Greg Knapp as offensive coordinator. Knapp spent the past two years running Oakland’s offense after doing the same in Atlanta for three years under Mora. Those offenses were at 0.0% or worse in DVOA in four out of five seasons. Perhaps Knapp will do a better job with the offense now that he has an experienced, veteran pocket quarterback — who, by the way, loves dogs.
With all the turnover on both sides of the ball, there were some areas that simply couldn’t be addressed. The top running backs are still the mediocre Julius Jones and the one-dimensional T.J. Duckett; the safeties are still Deon Grant and the Human Highlight Reel For Opposing Teams, Brian Russell.
Seattle should score more points in 2009 with just average injury luck. The ten most injured offenses from 2004 to 2007 averaged 6.2 wins and a -3.6% offensive DVOA; the next year, those numbers jumped to 7.2 wins and 0.9% DVOA. Four of those offenses jumped at least 10% in DVOA, most notably the 2005-06 Eagles, who went from -9.1% to 31.1%. However, success is not guaranteed. Half of those offenses actually declined the following season. The 2004-05 Vikings completely collapsed, falling from 18.4% to -15.3%. If that happens to Seattle this season, then expect a complete overhaul in 2010, and the last links to the 2005 Super Bowl team to be cut. Hasselbeck and Jones, the best Seahawks ever at their positions, will almost certainly be gone. With no star quarterback or running back to build around, the offense could be directionless.
Aside from the linebackers, most of the best players on either side of the ball will be north of 30, and any of those players could be replaced. The good news for Seattle fans is that improvement could come quickly the following season. In addition to their own first-round pick next April, the Seahawks will also have Denver’s first-round choice, swapped for a second-rounder this year. If we’re right about Denver, then a Seattle collapse would mean a pair of top-ten draft picks in 2010. And as Thomas Dimitroff has shown in Atlanta, it is possible to find a starting quarterback and left tackle in the same draft.
That’s all worst-case scenario, though. More likely, Seattle will regain its division crown and host another playoff game this year. With the uncertainty that would come with a second losing season, this will be a crucial campaign for the Seahawks. It could be playoffs or bust.
Vince Verhei
SEAHAWKS SUMMARY
2008 Record: 4-12
Pythagorean Wins: 5.4 (26th)
DVOA: -21.9% (28th)
Offense: -9.7% (26th)
Defense: 14.9% (27th)
Special Teams: 2.6% (9th)
Variance: 18.4% (20th)
2008: Cavalcade of injuries forces imploding Seahawks to hunt the Bumpus.
2009: Earth to oddsmakers: It isn’t like these guys forgot how to play football when they were on the shelf last year.
2009 Mean Projection: 9.9 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 7%
Mediocrity (7-8): 19%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 36%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 37%
Projected Average Opponent: 0.4% (19th)
from the book: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/products
Which is a good thing, because the slightest touch would probably have broken another Seattle wide receiver. We use Adjusted Games Lost to track how badly each team was hurt by injury in any given season, then break it down by offense and defense.
We currently have this data going back to 1996, and no offense during that span can touch the 2008 Seahawks, whose starters
had 66.3 AGL. No other team has more than 60 AGL from offensive starters; last year’s Bengals come close at 59.8. More than half the teams in that time span came in under 20. Seattle stands well ahead of the curve here.
With most of those players returning to health in 2009, a return to the playoffs is very likely. The Seahawks are the only NFC team that reached the divisional round of the playoffs every year from 2003 to 2007, and many of the players from those teams remain on the roster. However, that also means those players have put on a lot of years. If Seattle misses out on the postseason this year, it may be time to blow up the roster and start over.
The wide receiver injuries started before the season even began, with neither starter Deion Branch nor slot receiver Bobby Engram available at the start of the year. Branch played just one game in the first half of the season. Engram missed all of September. Then in the season opener, Nate Burleson tore his ACL and was out for the year. Logan Payne tore his MCL a week later, and was also out for the year. Billy McMullen and Michael Bumpus were signed off the street in Week 3, and both were lost for the season by Week 6.
At quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck missed five games between October and November, then missed all of December. The situation at offensive line was more stable, but ended in even greater havoc. Sean Locklear missed September with a knee injury. Guard Rob Sims tore his pec in the season opener and, like Burleson, was lost for the year. Things stabilized until mid-November, but then a Seahawks offensive lineman suffered a season-ending injury four times in five weeks. The Seahawks played their last two games of the season with the entire first-stringoffensive line on injured reserve.
When the season was over, the Seahawks had by far the league’s highest Adjusted Games Lost by wide receivers, and were a narrow second to Jacksonville for injuries at offensive line. Only three offensive players had started 12 or more games: Koren Robinson (signed off the street in October), Floyd Womack (supposedly a backup at guard and tackle), and left tackle Walter Jones. Which of these injuries will linger over to 2009? Branch, Burleson, Jones, and left guard Mike Wahle were held out of April drills with various ailments. Matt Hasselbeck is now 34 years old with a history of back troubles, although he has not missed a game in an odd-numbered year since 2001. (In Hasselbeck’s attic, there’s a painting of Chad Pennington that has a separated shoulder in odd-numbered years.) Jones, 35, has missed at least one game in three of the past four seasons, and just had microfracture surgery on his knee. Branch is the most likely player to miss part of 2009. The seven-year pro has only once played all 16 games in a season, and again this year there are questions whether he will be ready for training camp.
The defense was much healthier than the offense last season, suffering only one significant injury, but it was a big one: End Patrick Kerney played his last game in Week 8 against San Francisco. After elbow surgery, Kerney was also held out of spring drills, and is expected to miss the start of this year’s training camp.
Not satisfied to sit back and hope for improved health, Seattle made some major acquisitions over the offseason. Most newsworthy was the free agent signing of wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati.
Though the massively-monikered wideout has been a good possession receiver, leading the league in catches in 2007, he has also been limited to short routes; at least 39 percent of his targets in the past three years have come within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage; last year that number soared to 50 percent. Since Burleson is a somewhat better deep threat than Branch, the plan is to start Burleson and Houshmandzadeh, then move Housh into the slot when Branch comes on the field for third downs.
That trio, along with secondyear tight end John Carlson (whose rookie campaign was one of the very few bright spots at Qwest Field), would make for an impressive set of pass catchers, complementing each other’s styles nicely. Among other new Seahawks, the most notable come on defense. Tackles Colin Cole and Cory Redding were brought in to shore up the run defense, and cornerback Ken Lucas may be the top corner on his new/old team.
All those pale, however, compared to the new defensive star in Seattle: former Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, taken fourth overall in last April’s draft. The Butkus Award winner and consensus top collegiate player available, Curry will start from day one at weakside linebacker, and is expected to excel in pass rushing, pass coverage, and run defense.
Overseeing all this change will be new coach Jim Mora, who has been the team’s defensive backs coach for the past two seasons. The Seahawks ranked 12th in pass coverage in his first season with the club, but sank to 30th last year. One of Mora’s first moves upon being promoted to head coach was to hire Greg Knapp as offensive coordinator. Knapp spent the past two years running Oakland’s offense after doing the same in Atlanta for three years under Mora. Those offenses were at 0.0% or worse in DVOA in four out of five seasons. Perhaps Knapp will do a better job with the offense now that he has an experienced, veteran pocket quarterback — who, by the way, loves dogs.
With all the turnover on both sides of the ball, there were some areas that simply couldn’t be addressed. The top running backs are still the mediocre Julius Jones and the one-dimensional T.J. Duckett; the safeties are still Deon Grant and the Human Highlight Reel For Opposing Teams, Brian Russell.
Seattle should score more points in 2009 with just average injury luck. The ten most injured offenses from 2004 to 2007 averaged 6.2 wins and a -3.6% offensive DVOA; the next year, those numbers jumped to 7.2 wins and 0.9% DVOA. Four of those offenses jumped at least 10% in DVOA, most notably the 2005-06 Eagles, who went from -9.1% to 31.1%. However, success is not guaranteed. Half of those offenses actually declined the following season. The 2004-05 Vikings completely collapsed, falling from 18.4% to -15.3%. If that happens to Seattle this season, then expect a complete overhaul in 2010, and the last links to the 2005 Super Bowl team to be cut. Hasselbeck and Jones, the best Seahawks ever at their positions, will almost certainly be gone. With no star quarterback or running back to build around, the offense could be directionless.
Aside from the linebackers, most of the best players on either side of the ball will be north of 30, and any of those players could be replaced. The good news for Seattle fans is that improvement could come quickly the following season. In addition to their own first-round pick next April, the Seahawks will also have Denver’s first-round choice, swapped for a second-rounder this year. If we’re right about Denver, then a Seattle collapse would mean a pair of top-ten draft picks in 2010. And as Thomas Dimitroff has shown in Atlanta, it is possible to find a starting quarterback and left tackle in the same draft.
That’s all worst-case scenario, though. More likely, Seattle will regain its division crown and host another playoff game this year. With the uncertainty that would come with a second losing season, this will be a crucial campaign for the Seahawks. It could be playoffs or bust.
Vince Verhei
SEAHAWKS SUMMARY
2008 Record: 4-12
Pythagorean Wins: 5.4 (26th)
DVOA: -21.9% (28th)
Offense: -9.7% (26th)
Defense: 14.9% (27th)
Special Teams: 2.6% (9th)
Variance: 18.4% (20th)
2008: Cavalcade of injuries forces imploding Seahawks to hunt the Bumpus.
2009: Earth to oddsmakers: It isn’t like these guys forgot how to play football when they were on the shelf last year.
2009 Mean Projection: 9.9 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 7%
Mediocrity (7-8): 19%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 36%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 37%
Projected Average Opponent: 0.4% (19th)
from the book: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/products
here is the Strategic Tendencies blurb:
Mike Holmgren finally agreed to use shotgun formations over the last couple years, but that didn’t mean he wanted to use them much. The 2008 Seahawks used shotgun six percent of the time, the only team last year below ten percent. The Seahawks were awful in the shotgun (-64.5% DVOA) but that comes with a small sample size asterisk. In fact, the year before, with similar small sample size, they had been fabulous in the shotgun (50.0% DVOA). 6 For the third straight year, the Seahawks threw more than half their passes to the right side of the field. (They led the league in 2006 and 2007, but ranked second behind St. Louis in 2008.) 6 Seneca Wallace was the only quarterback in the league (minimum 100 passes) who didn’t throw an interception on a play with five or more pass rushers. 6 Seattle ran 36 percent of the time when they had three or more wide receivers in the game, the highest rate in the league. 6 Seattle only benefitted from opponents dropping 3.3 percent of passes, tied with San Diego for the lowest rate in the NFL. 6 What 12th Man? Seattle’s defense was much better on the road (3.2% DVOA, 19th) than it was at home (27.5% DVOA, 30th).
Offensive Line:
This unit was hit by injury nearly as hard by injuries as Seattle’s wide receiver corps. The intended starting five — Walter Jones, Mike Wahle, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, and Sean Locklear — never saw the field together, and by season’s end all were on the IR. Floyd Womack ended up starting 14 games at guard and tackle, the most of any Seattle blocker — and then signed with Cleveland in free agency. Interestingly, for all the carnage along the line, there was not a significant decline in performance between the starters and their backups. Stats like Rushing DVOA, ALY, and yards per carry were consistent all year long. In some ways the blocking actually peaked in the final four games. The only real dropoff the end of the year was in big plays; the running game offered no home-run threat over the last quarter of the season. The pass blocking actually improved over that same quarter. This is all an indictment of the first string as much as it is a compliment to the second sting.
The most worrisome long-term injuries were to Jones and Wahle, who missed spring drills recovering from respective knee and shoulder injuries. If healthy, they’ll both be starting, along with Locklear. The center and right guard positions are less clear. Spencer, a first-round draftee in 2005, has failed to live up to expectations. He’s in the final year of his contract and is playing for his job. Sims tore his pectoral muscle off the bone in last year’s season opener in Buffalo and missed the rest of the season. He has only one full season as a starter under his belt. The two players most likely to take their jobs are Ray Willis, a tackle who started three games at guard last year, and second-round draft pick Max Unger, who played tackle and center at Oregon. Unger looks like the long-term answer at center, but head coach Jim Mora and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp seem reluctant to trust a rookie to play center in their offense, which places extra weight on the snapper to call correct blocking assignments. Spencer has struggled with that exact task over his career, so we’ll see how the coaches feel come September. Further depth is provided by Steve Vallos, who started the final five games at center, and Mansfield Wrotto, who started four games at guard.
Mora and Knapp rely heavily on zone blocking, which will be a dramatic shift for a unit that has emphasized size over speed. The smallest prominent Seahawks lineman is the 304-pound Wahle. By comparison, the Denver Broncos, the league’s most prominent zone-blocking team, started four players smaller than that last year.
Defensive Front Seven:
The loss of Patrick Kerney in Week 8 started a domino effect that had far-reaching effects on the Seahawks defense. On the surface, their pass rush dropped by almost a sack per game without Kerney, but that’s misleading. They feasted on a lot of bad offensive lines in the first half of the season, especially San Francisco, which surrendered 13 sacks to Seattle in two games. When Kerney was injured, the Seahawks’ Adjusted Sack Rate fell from 6.4 percent to 5.8 percent. However, without opponent adjustments, the dropoff looks much more severe, 8.1 percent to 5.6 percent. Still, the loss of their only superior individual pass rusher forced Seattle to use more blitzes, and zone blitzes in particular. While all that blitzing helped to get pressure on opposing passers, it also opened holes in the running game; the Seahawks’ DVOA against the run was -8.7% in the first half of the season, but 3.9% in the second half. Seattle is counting on a healthy season from Kerney, as well as development of 2007 first-round pick Laurence Jackson, who disappointed in his rookie campaign. Jackson was benched in Week 6, although he was back in the starting lineup after Kerney was hurt. Backing up both will be Darryl Tapp, who had seven sacks as a full-time starter in 2007.
With three-year starter Rocky Bernard leaving for the Giants in free agency, the Seahawks brought in a pair of tackles, trading for Detroit’s Cory Redding and signing Colin Cole from Green Bay. The 330-pound Cole will team with the 314-pound Brandon Mebane to form an intimidating duo, with Redding coming off the bench on passing downs. The Seahawks have also been trying Redding at end.
Seattle’s linebackers, already the strength of the team, may be even better in 2009, and will certainly be younger. Fourth-overall pick Aaron Curry is eight years younger than last year’s starter, Julian Peterson, who was dealt to Detroit for Redding. Curry should immediately improve Seattle’s coverage of opposing running backs, which has ranked near the bottom of the league for two years in a row. Leroy Hill, one of the league’s top run defenders, signed a contract extension over the offseason that will keep him in Seattle through at least 2014. The previously consistent Lofa Tatupu had a relatively bad year in 2008, giving up big plays in both the run and the pass. He should benefit from the improvement in the defensive line. The best linebacker on the bench is D.D. Lewis, who started 12 games for Seattle’s Super Bowl team of 2005.
Secondary:
The return of Ken Lucas to the Pacific Northwest should boost Seattle’s defense considerably. The duo of Josh Wilson and, especially, Kelly Jennings proved woefully inadequate last season. Jennings, Seattle’s first-round pick in 2006, performed so poorly against both run and pass last year that he now finds himself looking up at Kevin Hobbs, an undrafted player with 20 career games, on the depth chart. Lucas brings experience and, more importantly, size to the backfield — at 6 feet and 205 pounds, he’s the biggest corner on the team. Wilson moves to the nickel, and should fare better against slot receivers than he did against starters. Marcus Trufant’s charting
numbers were poor last season, but expect a performance this year more like his 2007 campaign, when he was top 30 in both Success Rate and Adjusted Yards per Pass.
In the past four seasons, Deon Grant has ranked 58th, 64th, first, and 55th among safeties in Run Stop Rate. Whatever happened in 2007 that made him such a terror, don’t expect it to return. He improved somewhat in pass coverage last season, but it’s hard to argue that Grant has lived up to the $30 million contract he signed in 2007, which allegedly included the highest signing bonus for a safety to that point in league history. And then there’s Brian Russell, one of the worst starting players in the NFL. He brings nothing to the table as far as run support. He creates virtually no turnovers, collecting just one interception over the past two seasons despite starting every game. And while his individual coverage numbers look all right, consider that the Seahawks’ defense posted a 131.2% DVOA against deep passes last season, worse than any team save Detroit. Frankly, it’s hard to find anything he does well. C.J. Wallace and Jordan Babineaux sit on the bench behind these two, which should say everything you need to know about them. The safety position has been an afterthought in Seattle for years now. Of these four players, only Grant was drafted — and that was by Jacksonville.
Special Teams:
For those who have any doubts that kickoff value is more consistent than field-goal value, let us tell you the story of Olindo Mare. Last year, Mare led the NFL in gross kickoff value, 8.7 points of estimated field position better than an average kicker. It was the fourth time in six years that Mare has led the league, and the other two years he was third (2004) and fifth (2007). Over that same period, Mare’s weather-adjusted field-goal values 2014. Over the past two years alone, his field-goal percentage jumped from 59 percent to 89 percent. Punter Ryan Plackemeier was cut after he followed a calamitous 2007 with a poor performance in the season opener against Buffalo. He was replaced by Jon Ryan, who was a vast improvement. Both Mare and Ryan will be back this season. In the return game, Josh Wilson fell from stellar to good, and was outperformed by rookie Justin Forsett on a per-return basis. Forsett also proved adequate as a punt returner. If he can handle the lion’s share of returns, it would allow Wilson to concentrate on defensive play.
Coaching Staff:
Jim Mora’s first head coaching stint in Atlanta started with a run to the 2004 NFC Championship game, but then flamed out with back-to-back non-playoff seasons. That hot-then-cold pattern showed itself in each individual season, as Mora’s Falcons always finished worse in Weighted DVOA than in Total DVOA. The offense concocted by Greg Knapp was known for I-formations, zone blocking, plenty of runs, and a heavy use of playaction passing. It will be a major transition for Seattle, home to Mike Holmgren’s timing-based passing attack for the past decade, but the Seahawks got a head start by increasing their use of play-action from league-average to fifth overall last season.
The defense will rest in the hands of first-time coordinator Casey Bradley, formerly linebackers coach in Tampa Bay. Bradley learned the finer points of the Tampa-2 defense from Monte Kiffin, but Mora is a defensive minded coach, and his teams in Atlanta usually brought a lot of pressure. An aggressive attack might also be the best way to let Leroy Hill and Aaron Curry make plays. It will be interesting to see how the two styles mesh.
The skilled players have their own section.
Matt Hasselbeck:
Hasselbeck’s injuries, age, and salary were all high enough this spring that the Seahawks were rumored to be pursuing quarterbacks Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez in the draft. Hasselbeck bristled at these suggestions. “I mean, you could do that, that’s your prerogative,” Hasselbeck said of such a possibility. “It won’t change anything I do. I’m getting ready to play football this year. I am going to play football this year. I’m not concerned at all (about my back).” Since the Seahawks didn’t draft a passer early (they did take Rutgers signalcaller Mike Teel in the sixth round) and made no effort to bring in a veteran quarterback, it’s clear they’re not concerned about Hasselbeck’s back either. He had no issues at a predraft minicamp under new coach Jim Mora, but that could change when the pads go on and the hits are for real. KUBIAK loves that NFC West schedule and sees a huge rebound.
Seneca Wallace:
Wallace saw more action in 2008 than ever before, and he showed remarkable adequacy, especially given the injury woes Seattle suffered at wide receiver and along the offensive line. His greatest strength was his ability to avoid turnovers; only Jason Campbell threw for a lower interception rate, and he did it with a greater reliance on short passes. Wallace’s reward for such success? A return to the bench and a position as one of the better backup passers in the league. Wallace may never get a chance to develop as a starting quarterback. He’ll be 29 years old by the time the season starts, and that ship has sailed.
Mike Teel:
Teel was a nice “local boy makes good” story through most of his first two years as Rutgers starting quarterback, RU’s best two-year span since 1978-79. When the Scarlet Knights fell on hard times early in 2008, he was the fall guy. He was temporarily benched as RU started 1-5, but he turned it on during their seven-game win streak to end the season. Teel is a fiery leader whose overall stats suggest steady improvement and belie his streakiness.
Mike Holmgren finally agreed to use shotgun formations over the last couple years, but that didn’t mean he wanted to use them much. The 2008 Seahawks used shotgun six percent of the time, the only team last year below ten percent. The Seahawks were awful in the shotgun (-64.5% DVOA) but that comes with a small sample size asterisk. In fact, the year before, with similar small sample size, they had been fabulous in the shotgun (50.0% DVOA). 6 For the third straight year, the Seahawks threw more than half their passes to the right side of the field. (They led the league in 2006 and 2007, but ranked second behind St. Louis in 2008.) 6 Seneca Wallace was the only quarterback in the league (minimum 100 passes) who didn’t throw an interception on a play with five or more pass rushers. 6 Seattle ran 36 percent of the time when they had three or more wide receivers in the game, the highest rate in the league. 6 Seattle only benefitted from opponents dropping 3.3 percent of passes, tied with San Diego for the lowest rate in the NFL. 6 What 12th Man? Seattle’s defense was much better on the road (3.2% DVOA, 19th) than it was at home (27.5% DVOA, 30th).
Offensive Line:
This unit was hit by injury nearly as hard by injuries as Seattle’s wide receiver corps. The intended starting five — Walter Jones, Mike Wahle, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, and Sean Locklear — never saw the field together, and by season’s end all were on the IR. Floyd Womack ended up starting 14 games at guard and tackle, the most of any Seattle blocker — and then signed with Cleveland in free agency. Interestingly, for all the carnage along the line, there was not a significant decline in performance between the starters and their backups. Stats like Rushing DVOA, ALY, and yards per carry were consistent all year long. In some ways the blocking actually peaked in the final four games. The only real dropoff the end of the year was in big plays; the running game offered no home-run threat over the last quarter of the season. The pass blocking actually improved over that same quarter. This is all an indictment of the first string as much as it is a compliment to the second sting.
The most worrisome long-term injuries were to Jones and Wahle, who missed spring drills recovering from respective knee and shoulder injuries. If healthy, they’ll both be starting, along with Locklear. The center and right guard positions are less clear. Spencer, a first-round draftee in 2005, has failed to live up to expectations. He’s in the final year of his contract and is playing for his job. Sims tore his pectoral muscle off the bone in last year’s season opener in Buffalo and missed the rest of the season. He has only one full season as a starter under his belt. The two players most likely to take their jobs are Ray Willis, a tackle who started three games at guard last year, and second-round draft pick Max Unger, who played tackle and center at Oregon. Unger looks like the long-term answer at center, but head coach Jim Mora and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp seem reluctant to trust a rookie to play center in their offense, which places extra weight on the snapper to call correct blocking assignments. Spencer has struggled with that exact task over his career, so we’ll see how the coaches feel come September. Further depth is provided by Steve Vallos, who started the final five games at center, and Mansfield Wrotto, who started four games at guard.
Mora and Knapp rely heavily on zone blocking, which will be a dramatic shift for a unit that has emphasized size over speed. The smallest prominent Seahawks lineman is the 304-pound Wahle. By comparison, the Denver Broncos, the league’s most prominent zone-blocking team, started four players smaller than that last year.
Defensive Front Seven:
The loss of Patrick Kerney in Week 8 started a domino effect that had far-reaching effects on the Seahawks defense. On the surface, their pass rush dropped by almost a sack per game without Kerney, but that’s misleading. They feasted on a lot of bad offensive lines in the first half of the season, especially San Francisco, which surrendered 13 sacks to Seattle in two games. When Kerney was injured, the Seahawks’ Adjusted Sack Rate fell from 6.4 percent to 5.8 percent. However, without opponent adjustments, the dropoff looks much more severe, 8.1 percent to 5.6 percent. Still, the loss of their only superior individual pass rusher forced Seattle to use more blitzes, and zone blitzes in particular. While all that blitzing helped to get pressure on opposing passers, it also opened holes in the running game; the Seahawks’ DVOA against the run was -8.7% in the first half of the season, but 3.9% in the second half. Seattle is counting on a healthy season from Kerney, as well as development of 2007 first-round pick Laurence Jackson, who disappointed in his rookie campaign. Jackson was benched in Week 6, although he was back in the starting lineup after Kerney was hurt. Backing up both will be Darryl Tapp, who had seven sacks as a full-time starter in 2007.
With three-year starter Rocky Bernard leaving for the Giants in free agency, the Seahawks brought in a pair of tackles, trading for Detroit’s Cory Redding and signing Colin Cole from Green Bay. The 330-pound Cole will team with the 314-pound Brandon Mebane to form an intimidating duo, with Redding coming off the bench on passing downs. The Seahawks have also been trying Redding at end.
Seattle’s linebackers, already the strength of the team, may be even better in 2009, and will certainly be younger. Fourth-overall pick Aaron Curry is eight years younger than last year’s starter, Julian Peterson, who was dealt to Detroit for Redding. Curry should immediately improve Seattle’s coverage of opposing running backs, which has ranked near the bottom of the league for two years in a row. Leroy Hill, one of the league’s top run defenders, signed a contract extension over the offseason that will keep him in Seattle through at least 2014. The previously consistent Lofa Tatupu had a relatively bad year in 2008, giving up big plays in both the run and the pass. He should benefit from the improvement in the defensive line. The best linebacker on the bench is D.D. Lewis, who started 12 games for Seattle’s Super Bowl team of 2005.
Secondary:
The return of Ken Lucas to the Pacific Northwest should boost Seattle’s defense considerably. The duo of Josh Wilson and, especially, Kelly Jennings proved woefully inadequate last season. Jennings, Seattle’s first-round pick in 2006, performed so poorly against both run and pass last year that he now finds himself looking up at Kevin Hobbs, an undrafted player with 20 career games, on the depth chart. Lucas brings experience and, more importantly, size to the backfield — at 6 feet and 205 pounds, he’s the biggest corner on the team. Wilson moves to the nickel, and should fare better against slot receivers than he did against starters. Marcus Trufant’s charting
numbers were poor last season, but expect a performance this year more like his 2007 campaign, when he was top 30 in both Success Rate and Adjusted Yards per Pass.
In the past four seasons, Deon Grant has ranked 58th, 64th, first, and 55th among safeties in Run Stop Rate. Whatever happened in 2007 that made him such a terror, don’t expect it to return. He improved somewhat in pass coverage last season, but it’s hard to argue that Grant has lived up to the $30 million contract he signed in 2007, which allegedly included the highest signing bonus for a safety to that point in league history. And then there’s Brian Russell, one of the worst starting players in the NFL. He brings nothing to the table as far as run support. He creates virtually no turnovers, collecting just one interception over the past two seasons despite starting every game. And while his individual coverage numbers look all right, consider that the Seahawks’ defense posted a 131.2% DVOA against deep passes last season, worse than any team save Detroit. Frankly, it’s hard to find anything he does well. C.J. Wallace and Jordan Babineaux sit on the bench behind these two, which should say everything you need to know about them. The safety position has been an afterthought in Seattle for years now. Of these four players, only Grant was drafted — and that was by Jacksonville.
Special Teams:
For those who have any doubts that kickoff value is more consistent than field-goal value, let us tell you the story of Olindo Mare. Last year, Mare led the NFL in gross kickoff value, 8.7 points of estimated field position better than an average kicker. It was the fourth time in six years that Mare has led the league, and the other two years he was third (2004) and fifth (2007). Over that same period, Mare’s weather-adjusted field-goal values 2014. Over the past two years alone, his field-goal percentage jumped from 59 percent to 89 percent. Punter Ryan Plackemeier was cut after he followed a calamitous 2007 with a poor performance in the season opener against Buffalo. He was replaced by Jon Ryan, who was a vast improvement. Both Mare and Ryan will be back this season. In the return game, Josh Wilson fell from stellar to good, and was outperformed by rookie Justin Forsett on a per-return basis. Forsett also proved adequate as a punt returner. If he can handle the lion’s share of returns, it would allow Wilson to concentrate on defensive play.
Coaching Staff:
Jim Mora’s first head coaching stint in Atlanta started with a run to the 2004 NFC Championship game, but then flamed out with back-to-back non-playoff seasons. That hot-then-cold pattern showed itself in each individual season, as Mora’s Falcons always finished worse in Weighted DVOA than in Total DVOA. The offense concocted by Greg Knapp was known for I-formations, zone blocking, plenty of runs, and a heavy use of playaction passing. It will be a major transition for Seattle, home to Mike Holmgren’s timing-based passing attack for the past decade, but the Seahawks got a head start by increasing their use of play-action from league-average to fifth overall last season.
The defense will rest in the hands of first-time coordinator Casey Bradley, formerly linebackers coach in Tampa Bay. Bradley learned the finer points of the Tampa-2 defense from Monte Kiffin, but Mora is a defensive minded coach, and his teams in Atlanta usually brought a lot of pressure. An aggressive attack might also be the best way to let Leroy Hill and Aaron Curry make plays. It will be interesting to see how the two styles mesh.
The skilled players have their own section.
Matt Hasselbeck:
Hasselbeck’s injuries, age, and salary were all high enough this spring that the Seahawks were rumored to be pursuing quarterbacks Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez in the draft. Hasselbeck bristled at these suggestions. “I mean, you could do that, that’s your prerogative,” Hasselbeck said of such a possibility. “It won’t change anything I do. I’m getting ready to play football this year. I am going to play football this year. I’m not concerned at all (about my back).” Since the Seahawks didn’t draft a passer early (they did take Rutgers signalcaller Mike Teel in the sixth round) and made no effort to bring in a veteran quarterback, it’s clear they’re not concerned about Hasselbeck’s back either. He had no issues at a predraft minicamp under new coach Jim Mora, but that could change when the pads go on and the hits are for real. KUBIAK loves that NFC West schedule and sees a huge rebound.
Seneca Wallace:
Wallace saw more action in 2008 than ever before, and he showed remarkable adequacy, especially given the injury woes Seattle suffered at wide receiver and along the offensive line. His greatest strength was his ability to avoid turnovers; only Jason Campbell threw for a lower interception rate, and he did it with a greater reliance on short passes. Wallace’s reward for such success? A return to the bench and a position as one of the better backup passers in the league. Wallace may never get a chance to develop as a starting quarterback. He’ll be 29 years old by the time the season starts, and that ship has sailed.
Mike Teel:
Teel was a nice “local boy makes good” story through most of his first two years as Rutgers starting quarterback, RU’s best two-year span since 1978-79. When the Scarlet Knights fell on hard times early in 2008, he was the fall guy. He was temporarily benched as RU started 1-5, but he turned it on during their seven-game win streak to end the season. Teel is a fiery leader whose overall stats suggest steady improvement and belie his streakiness.