Season Preview -- San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have risen to the elite levels of the AFC on the talent of their offensive trio of Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Last season saw the Bolts waver early, but finish strong, even beating the Colts in the Wild Card game. Now San Diego's stars are another year older, but added age impacts everyone differently. And it looks as though it could send the Chargers' Big Three in different directions in 2009.
To see which Charger could give the team a jolt, which star is losing a step and learn about a key player to watch in the preseason, you must be an ESPN Insider.
One up: Philip Rivers
Three And Out: Chargers
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson has thoughts on Chargers coach Norv Turner, WR Vincent Jackson and San Diego's LB corps. Three and Out
Last year's Chargers snuck into the playoffs at 8-8, struggling on defense and in the running game. The passing game, however, was just fine. Fans may not realize just how good a year quarterback Philip Rivers had in just his third season as the San Diego starter. Football Outsiders' advanced DVOA statistics rated Rivers as the third most valuable quarterback in the league (behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning) and the second best quarterback in value per play (behind only Manning).
What makes Rivers' performance remarkable is that his passes combined for accuracy and distance. Rivers joins a select group of quarterbacks since 1978 who managed to complete at least 65 percent of passes and throw for an average of eight yards per pass attempt, with at least 12 games started. The list: Tom Brady (2007), Marc Bulger (2004), Daunte Culpepper (2004), Trent Green (2004), Peyton Manning (2004-2005), Joe Montana (1989), Philip Rivers (2008), Kurt Warner (1999, 2001) and Steve Young (1992-1994, 1997).
Trending down: RB LaDainian Tomlinson
The identity of San Diego's fading star shouldn't be a mystery to anyone who paid any attention to the NFL last year. LaDainian Tomlinson set career lows for carries (292) and rushing yardage (1110). He had the lowest yards per carry average (3.8) and the fewest touchdowns (12) since his rookie season back in 2001.
However, Tomlinson may still have some time left as a useful NFL player, even if he's not as good as he was during his peak. Tomlinson was slowed by a toe injury last year, but it's important to note that it only cost him speed on long runs, not the ability to gain yardage consistently. The percentage of runs where Tomlinson was stuffed at, or before, the line of scrimmage actually went down, from 21 percent in 2007 to 15 percent a year ago.
Another bright spot on Tomlinson's record is that he continued to be useful as a receiver in 2008. The end of a good running back's career is often foreshadowed by a big drop in receptions one or two years prior, but Tomlinson has had between 50 and 60 receptions for five straight years.
One to watch: Antonio Gates
[+] Enlarge
Christopher Hanewinckel/US Presswire
After a promising start to his career, Antonio Gates faces injury issues.For any other tight end, 704 yards and eight touchdowns would be a great season. For Antonio Gates, it was a definite step down from his previous level of performance. Gates had a career low in yards per reception (11.7) and the lowest total yards and touchdowns of any season except his rookie year. The reason was injury, as Gates suffered various problems from toe to ankle to hip. This hurt Gates' ability to use his speed to get separation downfield, which you can see in the change in the routes he ran. In 2006-2007, 26 percent of passes to Gates went 16 or more yards through the air, but last year that number was just 18 percent.
If last year's injuries are going to nag him for the rest of his career, Gates may never again reach the heights of his peak years.
However, if he's able to get completely healthy, the Chargers' offense will be even better than it was last year -- which, combined with a healthier defense, could make them Super Bowl favorites.
Aaron Schatz is a writer for Football Outsiders.
