(August 2002) Poverty fuels high birth rates in poor nations, as documented in the
2002 World Population Data Sheet, released by the Population Reference Bureau. Of the 41 countries designated as "heavily indebted poor countries" by the World Bank, 39 fall into the category of high-fertility nations, where women, on average, bear four or more children. Similarly, the 48 countries identified by the United Nations as "least developed" are expected to triple their populations by 2050.
The correlation between poverty and high fertility rates is most marked in sub-Saharan Africa, where the total fertility rate (TFR, or number of children each woman bears on average) is 5.6 and the gross national income per capita (GNI per capita, adjusted for purchasing power) is US$1,540, the lowest by far of any major region. Conversely, Western Europe has a GNI per capita of US$25,300 and a TFR of 1.5.
"The demographic divide between rich and poor countries," notes Carl Haub, the author of the data sheet, "is illustrated by long-term population projections. From 2002 to 2050, the more developed countries are projected to go from 1.197 billion to 1.249 billion, an increase of just 52 million people. Over the same period, the population of the less developed world will jump from 5.018 billion to 7.873 billion, an increase of more than 2.8 billion."
Almost 99 percent of population growth now occurs in the developing world, while there are fewer births than deaths each year in Europe.
The vast majority of developing countries with high birth rates now have official slow-growth policies. The relationship between poverty and fertility is hardly a surprise. But it is taking on added importance with the increasing cost of maintaining national family planning programs in a time of a world economic slowdown. If poor nations are to reach their desired birth rates, they must be able to improve infrastructures, train health personnel, and increase their payments for contraceptive commodities.
In addition, the 2002 World Population Data Sheet shows that:
- HIV/AIDS reached unprecedented proportions in Southern Africa. In Botswana, an astounding 38.8 percent of adults are infected. AIDS has resulted in anticipated population decline in some countries of Africa, although the region continues to lead the world in projected growth.
- The United States remains the fastest growing industrialized country, due to its higher birth rate (2.1 children per woman) and to immigration.
- Countries facing the largest population losses between now and 2050 include Botswana, Bulgaria, Estonia, Japan, Russia, South Africa, and Ukraine.
- Countries projected to have the largest population increases include Angola, Congo (Democratic Republic), Iraq, Niger, Palestinian Territory, Uganda, and Yemen.
- The use of contraception varies widely, from 19 percent of couples in sub-Saharan African countries using a method to 68 percent in developed countries.