Performify’s Picks for “UFC 82: Pride of a Champion”
After riding a five-event win streak, UFC 81 brought me crashing back down to earth a bit. I think I was on the right side of a couple lines, especially Nakamura, but none went my way. Regardless, I’m still a very decent 25-20 for +8.205 units for the last six events on which I’ve released predictions (UFC 81, UFN 12, UFC 79, 78, 77, 76, and 75).
For those of you who haven’t tried it before, I’d definitely urge you to consider opening an account at Bodog and dropping a few bucks on your favorite fighter. Until you try it, you have no idea how much having action on a fight — even if it’s only a dollar — enhances your enjoyment of the entire event. You can open a Bodog account with as little as $20, you can fund your account with a credit card right over the Internet, and you can literally wager as little as one dollar on a fight.
For those interested in betting on the UFC so you can follow along and make money watching your favorite sport, you can get exact details on how to sign up at Bodog — or even learn how to make a bet and read a betting line — by reading the series of articles in our MMAjunkie.com MMA and UFC Wagering Guide:
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide outline
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide: opening and funding an account
MMA Wagering 101: reading a line, converting a line to a percentage
MMA Wagering 202: setting your own lines, finding value in lines
MMA Wagering 303: understanding a value bet
MMA Wagering 404: line Shopping (this post)
Onto the picks. (As always, all lines are current widely available market lines at the time of this writeup.)
Anderson Silva (-145) vs. Dan Henderson (+115)
Anderson “The Spider” Silva holds a 20-4 MMA record and is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC. Since moving to the UFC, he’s amassed dominant victories over Chris Leben, Travis Lutter, Nate Marquardt, and Rich Franklin twice. At 32 years of age, Silva is widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound MMA fighters on the planet. In fact, he’s ranked at the pinnacle of the pound-for-pound rankings from FIGHT! Magazine and Yahoo! Sports. Silva is not only the current UFC middleweight champion, but he has held titles in two other MMA organizations: England’s Cage Rage and Japan’s Shooto.
Silva holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, earned under reigning UFC heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Silva is currently part of the Iron House fight team. You may know this formidable bunch better under their former name of “Black House” (the name was changed around the time of UFC 79 reportedly due to trademark reasons). Silva trains alongside Lyoto Machida, Paulo Filho, Vitor Belfort and the Nogueira brothers.
Before we move on, let’s run down that list for a second. Machida: holder of a perfect 12-0 MMA record (4-0 UFC) and generally considered a top challenger to the UFC’s light heavyweight belt. Filho: the reigning WEC middleweight champion and holder of a perfect 16-0 MMA record. Belfort: former UFC light heavyweight champion and currently the Cage Rage light heavyweight champion. And Nogueira just took over the UFC’s interim heavyweight belt. Is there a more dominant fight team in MMA? Anywhere?
Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is 22-6 in his professional mixed martial arts career, and he is 2-1 in the UFC after losing to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 75 (Henderson also competed in a middleweight tournament at UFC 17, fighting twice and winning both matches). Henderson is 37 years old and trains at Team Quest alongside Matt Lindland and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.
Henderson is a former National Greco-Roman wrestling champion and also a two-time Olympic challenger, having competed for the 1992 and 1996 U.S. Greco-Roman wrestling teams. In case you’re not familiar, Greco-Roman wrestling primarily differs from freestyle or amateur wrestling by the fact that it does not allow the wrestlers to hold or attack below the waist. You can’t shoot on your opponent for a takedown via the legs, for example; Greco is almost all clinches and throws.
A point that many have overlooked in the hype of this fight is that this is actually the second official title-unification bout between the UFC and PRIDE. First, Jackson unified the 205-pound belts by defeating Henderson at UFC 75. Now, this fight will unify the belts between the UFC’s middleweight division (185 lbs.) and PRIDE’s “welterweight” division (183 lbs.). Not to mention we also had the former (but not the reigning) PRIDE heavyweight champion in Nogueira take the UFC’s title by choking out Tim Sylvia, so given the situation where the most recent reigning PRIDE heavyweight champion (Fedor Emelianenko) isn’t in the UFC/PRIDE organization, you can almost consider that a unified title. At least i can, if I close my eyes hard enough and keep repeating “there’s no place like Zuffa… there’s no place like Zuffa.” Or maybe that’s just me…
I think Henderson has two realistic chances to win this fight. The first is an absolute longshot: land the big overhand right. Silva has some of the best head movement and footwork in MMA, tremendous speed with his own strikes, and has never been knocked out or even really wobbled, so I don’t really see this happening very frequently. Anything is certainly possible, but it’s also not probable. If anything, I expect Henderson will eat two to three deadly Silva strikes every time he tries to wind up and unload the big right, which will quickly turn in to a losing proposition no matter how much punishment the rock-hard head of Henderson seems to be able to absorb.
The second way that I see Henderson winning this fight is a much more realistic threat. Silva has a tremendously active and dangerous guard when he’s on the bottom. But he has also shown a weakness in several of his fights in which his opponents can pass guard into side control, and he has been controlled there before, which has cost him fights. Silva has only two meaningful losses in his career (yes, I’m excluding both the DQ loss to Yushin Okami at Rumble on the Rock 8 and the freak flying heel hook to Ryo Chonan at PRIDE Shockwave 2004). Both of Silva’s meaningful losses have come by way of being constrained in side control. At PRIDE 26, Daiju Takase essentially held Silva on his back in side control until he was able to secure a submission. And in Silva’s first professional fight against Luiz Azeredo, Azeredo was able to grind out a decision win primarily by holding Silva in side control for most of the fight.
Now, the Azerado loss was nearly eight years ago, and the Takase loss was nearly five years ago. Are they meaningful to today’s Silva, the dominant pound-for-pound champion? Not entirely. However we also saw Silva’s tendency to get his guard passed and controlled very recently, including against Travis Lutter only a year ago. There, Lutter was able to pass Silva’s guard with ease when the fight hit the canvas, and he was even able to move into the mount before getting swept.
I believe Henderson’s best gameplan for winning this fight is to get inside to a body lock, secure a takedown via trip or drag, work on passing Silva’s guard, and try holding him in side control for the rest of the round, using just enough ground and pound to keep from getting stood up. There’s a reason that he held the nickname “Decision Dan” in PRIDE, and if anyone can take the dangerous Silva to decision, it’s almost certainly Henderson.
So, having just laid out a gameplan for Henderson to realistically take this fight without having to depend on landing a big right, let’s move on to the real issue at hand. There’s no question it’s certainly a possibility that Henderson can take this fight. The question we have to ask ourselves, from a gambling perspective, is how likely is Henderson to actually be able to implement this gameplan effectively? In other words, what’s the real probability that Henderson can upset Silva?
Many analysts believe this fight is a figurative coinflip, that either Silva or Henderson have almost equal chances of winning this fight. Some even favor Henderson. For example check out “Frank Trigg’s Fight Breakdown” in which he’s ready to hand the belts to Henderson already. Sorry Frank, but I think you’re going to be disappointed on Saturday. Personally, I foresee Silva walking away from this fight victorious; I certainly don’t think that Henderson is a coinflip to win.
Simply put, I believe Silva is too dangerous in too many areas for Henderson to take this fight a high percentage of the time. I will go as far as to say that I think Silva at the current odds is a good bet.
First off, this is a five-round title fight, so if Henderson does attempt to implement a methodical, controlled gameplan like I laid out above and push for a decision, there’s still a tremendous amount of time that Silva will have to land a fight-ending shot or even slap on a submission. There are also five bells to answer, and five standing starts to the fight, where Silva will have a tremendous advantage over Henderson.
Many people will jump in at this juncture to point out that Henderson has never been knocked out. That’s certainly true. However, Henderson has also never faced Silva before. Silva delivered iron-jawed Leben his first and only career knockout. Silva also delivered Marquardt his only career TKO, and he is only one of two people to have knocked out Franklin (the other being a much-larger Lyoto Machida when Franklin was still fighting at 205). Not to say that I see Silva landing a one-shot knockout on Henderson by any means; I expect Silva to overwhelm Henderson with a technical, accurate barrage of strikes, kicks, knees and elbows, much the way that he did to Rich Franklin at UFC 77.
Silva is simply the best striker in MMA today, and perhaps one of the top few in history. At range, he dominates with excellent footwork and vicious kicks. In close, his Muay Thai is almost unparalleled, with vicious knees, elbows and dirty boxing.
From his back, he has a dangerous guard and incredible flexibility, and uses the leverage created by his long limbs to cause real problems for his opponents, including often slapping on a body triangle where he can pepper his opponent with elbows.
So here’s exactly how I expect this fight to go down: I think Henderson is going to know that he has to close distance and take this fight to the ground to have a chance early. Silva is going to try to create distance and pepper with strikes from outside using his fluid footwork. Despite this, Henderson will likely get inside in the first round after eating a couple blows, and his Greco skills will certainly dump Silva no matter how much Silva’s been focused on defending the drag-down in practice lately.
When the fight hits the mat, I believe that Silva will have a specific gameplan for tying up Henderson utilizing his unorthodox guard and long limbs, and he will succeed in getting the fight back to the feet. There, Henderson will continue to absorb punishment before trying to rinse and repeat.
After two, at most three rounds of the same, I think we see Henderson start to gas. He’s 37 years old and has never shown effective cardio fighting at this weight; it seems like the cut takes too much out of him, and as his age increases, I think this factor is going to become even more of a problem. At this point in the fight, I think we see Henderson get a little frustrated and try to start winding up the big overhand right. And that’s when Silva will secure his place as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world; we’ll see Silva “dodge, dip, duck, dive and dodge,” slipping Henderson’s telegraphed rights and responding with shot after shot until he gets to a point where he can overwhelm his opponent with a barrage of unanswered blows and force the referee to step in.
Anderson Silva by TKO (strikes) early in the fourth round or late in the third.
Cheick Kongo (-175) vs. Heath Herring (+145)
Yawn.
Herring is 27-13 in MMA and is 1-2 in the UFC. Kongo is 11-3-1 in MMA and 4-1 in the UFC, including a narcolepsy-inducing unanimous decision win over Mirko ‘Cro Cop” Filipovic. Kongo is 32; Herring 29.
The expected playbook for this fight is that Herring will look to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. Kongo will most certainly expect that and will do everything he can to keep the fight standing or work to get back to his feet once the fight hits the ground.
MMA can be unpredictable at times, and Herring is certainly crazy enough to try something really unorthodox here. But I won’t be surprised at all if this is one of the worst fights in recent UFC history, especially so given that Kongo’s last three fights all are likewise candidates for that dubious honor. Herring has the modicum of wrestling ability that’s apparently necessary to put Kongo on his back and keep him there, and assuming he doesn’t get blasted on the way in or decide to mix it up early, I think we get Herring laying-and-praying his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision amidst a chorus of boos from the crowd.
Sadly, if Kongo wins, he’s in position for a title shot or at least a No. 1 contenders’ match.
Chris Leben (-165) vs. Alessio Sakara (+135)
Alessio Sakara is 12-6 in MMA and 3-3 in the UFC with one no-contest. Sakara fights out of American Top Team. This is his first fight down at 185, after formerly competing at light heavyweight. Chris Leben holds a 17-4 MMA record and is 9-3 in the UFC. Leben had dropped two straight, against Jason MacDonald and Kalib Starnes, before rebounding with a KO of Terry Martin in September.
Sakara hasn’t shown much promise to me in his UFC career, and I don’t expect he’ll find significant success at 185. Leben’s ability to absorb punishment and respond with looping bombs is likely to prove to be bad news for Sakara, who has shown a surprising willingness to quit in his past fights, not to mention his suspect conditioning.
That said, it’s always possible that 185 is where Sakara should have been fighting all along, and the strength and size he should possess at the lower weight class may allow him to impose his will on Leben. I expect an exciting first half of the first round, followed by a descent into sloppiness for both fighters, culminating in Sakara staring up at the lights. Leben by KO in the second.
Yushin Okami (-220) vs. Evan Tanner (+120)
Yushin Okami holds a 20-4 MMA record and only one loss in his past eight fights, a close but unanimous decision loss to Rich Franklin at UFC 72. Okami is ridiculously large and strong for a middleweight, and has won most of his fights by either ground-and-pound or by using his size and wresting skills to grind out a decision.
Former middleweight champion Evan Tanner holds a 32-6 MMA record and is coming back to the UFC after an almost two-year hiatus. Tanner is 37 years old.
This line opened with Okami as a much smaller favorite, and I piled on heavy early. The line has continued to climb, and I expect it will do so until right before fight time when some sharps buy back their position.
Okami presents a tough matchup to just about anyone. I’m afraid a 37-year-old Tanner returning after two years away will be really surprised to see how much the fight game has evolved in his absence. Okami is just a monster of size and strength, and he will be, by far, the biggest and strongest middleweight that Tanner has ever faced.
Tanner’s a great name in MMA and has accomplished a lot in his 10-year career; however, I’ll be extremely surprised if he can throw anything at Okami. I expect this fight to go exactly like the rest of Okami’s fights in the UFC: a bit of a slow start for the Japanese fighter, but Okami using his overwhelming strength to secure either a decision victory or a late third-round TKO. Here, I think Okami will have enough to stop Tanner in the latter part of the fight. Expect to see Okami fighting Anderson Silva next, assuming he makes it past Tanner here.
Even at the elevated line, I still feel that Okami is the best bet on the card. Okami by TKO in the third round.
(In the unlikely event that Tanner pulls the upset, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him granted an immediate title shot due to the lack of depth at 185.)
Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Chris Wilson (+350)
Former IFL fighter Chris Wilson trains with Team Quest alongside Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland and Sokoudjou. Wilson holds a 13-3 professional MMA record and is making his UFC debut.
Jon Fitch holds a 15-2 MMA record and is undefeated in his past 14 fights; he hasn’t lost since 2002. Fitch is a former collegiate wrestler, in fact co-captain of the Purdue wrestling team his senior year (2002). Fitch trains at American Kickboxing Academy — AKA — under Dave Camarillo. He holds a brown belt in BJJ earned under Camarillo.
Fitch is a massive favorite here for a reason. While Wilson has shown a lot of success on the smaller stages, Fitch outmatches him in almost every way. Fitch’s wrestling skills will prove way too much for Wilson here. I expect Fitch to put on a wrestling clinic, and eventually secure a TKO in the third round after putting Wilson on his back consistently for the first two rounds.
Andrei Arlovski (-350) vs. Jake O’Brien (+250)
Unfortunately with Andrei Arlovski’s contract situation, the only way we’re getting to see this fight as part of the broadcast is if Arlovski gets beaten. Former heavyweight champion Arlovski holds a 10-5 MMA record and has won his past two fights after dropping the two prior to Tim Sylvia. “The Pitbull” has been on the bench since April of last year reportedly due to contract issues, and will likely have some ring rust.
Jake O’Brien holds a perfect 10-0 MMA record and is 3-0 in the UFC. O’Brien should have even more ring rust than Arlovski, having not fought professionally since January 2007 when he defeated Heath Herring by unanimous decision.
I really don’t like betting on fighters who have been on long layoffs, and here we’re dealing with two fighters who will likely be trying to shed a good deal of rust. Arlovski is dangerous with speed and power, but O’Brien has shown solid wresting skills and certainly may be able to take this fight to the ground and grind out a decision. Due to the unpredictability, I’d recommend staying away.
Luke Cummo (-160) vs. Luigi Fioravanti (+130)
Former “The Ultimate Fighter” contestant Luke Cummo is 6-4 in MMA, 3-2 in the UFC. He trains under Matt Serra. American Top Team’s Fioravanti (pronounced “Fee-Or-Vahn-Teh”) is 11-3 in MMA but 2-3 in the UFC. Fioravanti dropped his past two fights in the UFC, to Jon Fitch and Forrest Petz before stepping outside the organization in mid-2007 to get back on the winning track. Cummo has won his past two, over Josh Haynes and Edilberto de Oliveira.
Both of these guys are most comfortable striking, so we could see some fireworks out of this fight. Cummo has the edge in accuracy, Fioravanti in power. Cummo will look to continue his winning ways, while Fioravanti is in a must-win situation if he wants to stay with the UFC. I think this fight is too close to call at these odds; Cummo could take this to a decision with technical striking, or Fioravanti could end the fight with a TKO.
Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Dustin Hazelett (+300)
Josh Koscheck holds a 9-2 MMA record and is 7-2 in the UFC. Koscheck is one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers active in MMA today, as a former four-time All-American and former NCAA division-I champion. He’s coming off a one-sided unanimous decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 74.
For an excellent look at Hazelett from a true insiders perspective, be sure to check out MMAjunkie.com columnist Sean Salmon’s Get to Know ‘Em: Dustin Hazelett feature. Hazelett is 22 years old and holds a brown belt in BJJ under Jorge Gurgel. Hazelett is 3-1 in the UFC and 10-3 in professional MMA.
I actually like Hazelett here as a 3-to-1 underdog, and not just because of the relationship the site has to Gurgel’s gym. Koscheck has been submitted before, and he hasn’t finished any of his recent fights. Strong wrestlers have certainly proven they’re able to neutralize a lot of BJJ skill recently; however, I think Koscheck will be in danger for a lot of this fight from Hazelett’s dangerous guard. I don’t expect Hazelett wins this fight a significant percentage of the time, but certainly enough to make him a decent bet as such a substantial underdog.
Diego Sanchez (-450) vs. David Bielkheden (+300)
David Bielkheden is a Swedish fighter with a 12-5 MMA record and a BJJ black belt from Brazilian Top Team. Bielkheden has fought in Shooto and once in PRIDE (at Bushido 13 in November 2006). There, he lost a unanimous decision to Mitsuhiro Ishida.
Diego Sanchez is 17-2 in professional MMA (and 6-2 in the UFC) after dropping his last two fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch at UFC 69 and 76 respectively. Sanchez formerly trained under Greg Jackson, but he left the camp in August 2007 and now trains out of California with the North County Fight Club (NCFC) alongside Brandon Vera and Roger Huerta.
Sanchez’s split decision loss to Fitch had to be a tough loss, emotionally, especially so after being so used to winning. This should be a decent test of Sanchez’s testicular fortitude; can he regain his winning ways by handling a dangerous competitor, or will the pressure of avoiding his third consecutive loss prove too much for the winner of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter” series?
At these odds, I don’t think it’s worth betting on Sanchez. One might consider a small flier on Bielkheden’s BJJ skills as a 3-to-1 underdog, but I don’t think it’s a worthwhile bet. Sanchez should be able to take this fight pretty easily, despite Bielkheden’s background with BTT.
Sanchez by TKO in the second round.
Jorge Gurgel (-200) vs. John Halverson (+160)
John Halverson holds a 16-5 MMA record. He suffered disappointment in his UFC debut, getting stopped early by Roger Huerta at UFC 67 in a fight that wasn’t without controversy; it appeared to many that Huerta hit Halverson with an illegal knee while he was the ground. Halverson stepped away from the UFC after losing to Huerta, where has won his past three fights all by way of submission. Halverson is a former Gold Gloves boxing competitor and jetski tricks competitor. Halverson is 35 years old and has been competing in professional MMA since the latter part of 2002.
Jorge Gurgel is 31 and owns a 13-2 MMA record. He was a contestant on “The Ultimate Fighter 2” and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under PRIDE veteran and grappling legend Marcus Aurelio. He fights out of Cincinnati, Ohio, but was born in Fortaleza, Brazil. (There are also several other notable MMA fighters who hail from the town, including Gurgel’s mentor Marcus Aurelio, Thiago Alves, Wilson Gouveia and Hermes Franca.)
Gurgel is generally considered one of MMA’s best instructors. His 13,000-square-foot facility in Cincinnati has been lauded by the local and national media as one of the best training centers anywhere in the world. Gurgel’s student Dustin Hazelett is also competing on this card, and Gurgel and Hazelett have been training together.
Gurgel has had trouble in the past with getting smacked in the face, and Halverson has decently-well rounded skills and should have superior striking in this match-up with his Golden Gloves background. Gurgel certainly has the edge on the ground, despite Halverson’s recent string of submission victories.
All of Gurgel’s fights in the UFC have gone the distance. Halverson certainly has a chance to stop Gurgel with strikes if he can keep the fight standing, but I expect more than not that we’ll see Gurgel get the fight to the ground and will grind out a decision win. Gurgel certainly has the BJJ pedigree to submit Halverson, but I think Halverson’s athleticism and continued development will prove sufficient to avoid getting choked out. Gurgel by unanimous decision.
My recommended plays:
Anderson Silva (-145) : 1.45u to win 1u
Yushin Okami (-220) : 3.3u to win 1.5u
Jon Fitch (-550) : 5.5u to win 1u
Dustin Hazelett (+300) : .33u to win 1u
