Lesnar answers questions, raises more
By Dave Meltzer, Yahoo! Sports
A week ago, Brock Lesnar had his back against the wall.
In his third pro mixed martial arts fight, and his first to pass the 90-second mark, Lesnar shut down 11-year pro Heath Herring at Saturday’s UFC 87 in Minneapolis.
The former NCAA wrestling champion dominated Herring in such a fashion that public opinion shifted from thinking he was a novelty act to wondering who can handle someone with his size, power and overall athleticism.
Lesnar sent Herring head-over-heels with a right hand in the opening seconds but mainly fought a conservative fight in winning a one-sided decision. In doing so, he answered some of the many questions about him as an MMA fighter.
Guys of Lesnar’s size and physique are usually stereotyped as lacking the stamina to hang at the championship level. Lesnar was known for his conditioning as a wrestler at the University of Minnesota, but that was eight years ago. Saturday, he proved he could go the distance and also showed major strategic improvements over his first fight, as he kept himself under control and made no major mistakes over three rounds.
He may not have the best punching technique, but he has freakish power in his punches. He can use his wrestling skill to control an experienced fighter; physically, he is able to manhandle anyone but a top-level wrestler.
The big question, whether he can take a punch, remains unanswered. But if he can take people down at will, it may be some time before he has to answer it. It’s to his benefit to keep that question from being asked for as long as possible.
As impressive as Lesnar looked athletically, MMA is a game of styles. He may be the best wrestler in the division, but that’s not a lock.
Cain Velasquez is six years younger, and while never an NCAA champion, he took Lesnar’s training partner, 2006 NCAA champ Cole Konrad, to the limit, losing a criteria decision, in that year’s tournament.
On paper, a good kickboxer who can avoid Lesnar’s takedowns would give him trouble, but there’s nobody on the UFC roster that readily fits that description.
The top tier of UFC heavyweights, champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and the next three contenders, Frank Mir, Fabricio Werdum (who will get a shot at the Nogueira-Mir winner likely in early 2009) and former top contender Gabriel Gonzaga would relish the opportunity to be taken down by Lesnar and try to counter his power with their jiu-jitsu skills.
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If Lesnar learns submission avoidance well enough to stymie their offense and has confidence in that ability, none of the current top four would have a chance to beat him. But all would be dangerous opponents. One would think Lesnar wouldn’t be put in with any of them for the next several months. Gonzaga is a bad match to book from a risk-reward basis because he has little upside after losses to Randy Couture and Werdum and could knock Lesnar down a peg when he’s being built.
There may be people who can stop Lesnar’s takedowns in the UFC, but those four aren’t it.
Emphasis on 265
With his performance, Lesnar has suddenly put more focus on the UFC’s heavyweight division since Randy Couture left the company last year.
For much of the company’s recent history, the division has been second-rate. In the early part of the decade, most of the top heavyweight talent was in Japan’s PRIDE group. Things appeared to change last year. UFC was rolling in money from the windfall of some huge pay-per-view shows in 2006. PRIDE was in the process of going down for the count after losing its television exposure in Japan.
UFC signed Nogueira and Mirko Cro Cop, generally considered the second and third best heavyweights in the world at the time. Then, the division got a boost when Couture, one of the company’s most popular fighters at the time, beat Tim Sylvia for the championship.
But with Cro Cop, Couture, Sylvia and former champ Andrei Arlovski leaving, the heavyweight division quickly became UFC’s weakest class, and gave rival Affliction the opening to have the best heavyweight lineup.
Lesnar (2-1) is one of three former college wrestling standouts being primed as the division’s future, along with Velasquez (3-0) and Shane Carwin (9-0). It will likely be a year before any of them is put in title contention, and MMA is unpredictable enough that it’s possible none will pan out, although the law of averages is in favor of at least one of the three becoming a major star.
Since Velasquez handily dispatched Jake O’Brien on July 19, UFC is having problems finding suitable opponents. He has no match scheduled at the present time. The problem is that he still doesn’t have a recognizable name, so for a well-known opponent, there’s no upside to winning.
While insiders are already talking about a potential Velasquez-Lesnar match, it’s doubtful it would be made any time soon because it makes little sense until Velasquez gets more of a name.
If both continue to win, the fight could determine who is the future of the division. Lesnar, a 280-pounder who cuts to 265, would go in with 40-45 pounds on Velasquez, who weighed 235 without having to cut in his last outing. Still, Velasquez routinely dispatched bigger men in the sport of wrestling, which is where Lesnar’s strengths lie. Velasquez appears to have adapted more quickly than Lesnar to the stand-up game and jiu-jitsu, and his stamina in the gym is legendary, even though he’s never had to show it in competition.
Carwin has the most fights, but is actually the one with the most question marks. Coming off a 44-second knockout win over Christian Wellisch in his UFC debut May 24, he has bulldozed through every opponent. Before fighting Wellisch, Carwin’s game plan was simple.
The 1999 Division II heavyweight champion at Western State College in Colorado would explode at the bell, take his opponent down and destroy him with some of the fiercest ground and pound in the division. The longest match of his career lasted 2:11.
It’s an impressive resume, and of the three, Carwin is the most shark-like when he smells blood. But he faces the same questions that faced Lesnar a week ago. How is his stamina? And can he take a punch? Like Lesnar, he’s got natural power in his punches, as the Wellisch knockout showed, and which is evident in his ground and pound. But he has yet to face the level of opponent that would allow you to fully judge his UFC potential. His toughest opponent so far was 310-pound former Arena Football League lineman Rex Richards, who got the same treatment as everyone who has crossed Carwin’s path.
Carwin is the only one of the three who has a future match lined up. He’ll face Neil Wain, a British heavyweight with a similar record. Wain is 4-0, all four fights ending via first-round knockout or TKO, on the Oct. 18 show in Birmingham, England.
Where Lesnar goes next will likely be determined over the next few weeks.
Mark Coleman, Lesnar’s original opponent for Saturday night’s match until he suffered a torn MCL in training in late May, is healthy, but apparently not pushing hard for the fight.
Cheick Kongo, who knocked out Dan Evensen on Saturday, is Lesnar’s most likely next opponent, although no negotiations have started.
If it happens, Kongo (22-5-1) can win if he stays on his feet. But Kongo was out-wrestled by a smaller Carmello Marrero two years ago, and the Kongo of that day would have no chance against Lesnar unless Lesnar beats himself. Kongo has shown better wrestling since that time, but whether it’s enough to stay upright against Lesnar is a different story.