http://slashdot.org/article.pl?no_d2=1&sid=07/11/20/0024248
"Consumer and corporate use of the Internet could overload the current capacity and lead to brown-outs in two years unless backbone providers invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure, according to a new study. A flood of new video and other Web content could overwhelm the Net by 2010 unless backbone providers invest up to US $137 billion in new capacity, more than double what service providers plan to invest, according to the study by Nemertes Research Group. In North America alone, backbone investments of $42 billion to $55 billion will be needed in the next three to five years to keep up with demand, Nemertes said. Quoting from the study: 'Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.' Internet users will create 161 exabytes of new data this year."
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By Marie Boran
Thursday May 22 2008
Chief technology officer for Nortel EMEA, Dave Quane (pictured), talks about the increase in high-definition video on the web and whether this demand will kill the network.
You have talked about ‘internet brownouts’ as a result of massive amounts of video on the net – will this increase in the future?
Carriers are currently presented with a challenge due to the growth of social media sites. Then add to this, in the near future, real-time telepresence, high-definition video and unified communications.
This whole combination is what Nortel calls hyper-connectivity and these two forces coming together are creating huge challenges for carriers as we go forward.
The numbers tell the story: recent research from Bernstein showed that downloading half an hour of TV on the web consumes more bandwidth than 200 emails a day for an entire year.
The amount of traffic last year on YouTube alone was greater than all of the internet traffic seven or eight years ago: that’s a staggering amount of growth. One thing I think we’re all in agreement on is that it will only grow and grow from here.
If networks need to be upgraded to take all this video, who should foot the bill for the upgrades: the network providers or the content producers?
There are some interesting commercial conversations playing out at the moment over this very issue: who should pay for this, the carrier or the content owner.
Whatever the solution is, it must be solved and it will be solved. They will get their heads together because there is money for both players here and the key thing is the demand is real and driven by consumers and businesses.
When do you see the beginning of internet brownouts due to bandwidth strain?
I’m not sure we will see an absolute grinding to a halt but certainly we will see
significant speed and performance issues.
A study from an independent analyst firm suggested that the amount of investment required to build new capacity was something in the region of $137bn and I’m not talking for the next 20 or 30 years. This is to cope with video by 2010.
Service providers will not be able to cope unless we see greater investment – or more innovative ways of using that investment – and that is where Nortel thinks it will play a significant role.
Instead of pumping more and more money into extra bandwidth, a carrier needs to ask how it can invest in the network. Nortel looks at taking a provider’s existing network investment and putting more traffic and bandwidth through that with some of its technologies such as PBT (provider backbone transfer).
http://www.independent.ie/business/technology/turn-on-tune-in-brownout-1382862.html