#9
Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors
The deal: 6-year, $66 million. Were it not for the serious ankle injury and surgery of last week we may not have even brought up Monta Ellis or his contract. Now it's impossible not to. Nobody seems to know at the moment how he injured the ankle, and if he refuses to come clean, that leaves a huge trust and credibility issue hanging in the balance for a 22-year-old. This is the guy to whom coach Don Nelson promised to hand the ball in the wake of point guard Baron Davis' defection to the Clippers. Now they'll look to less experienced Marcus Williams, who is at least a natural point guard. Ellis has shown extraordinary ability but what we don't know now is whether or not he can handle the responsibility. We'll find out shortly if this is a minor blip or if he's a classic example of somebody out of high school getting too much too soon.
#8
Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls
The deal: 6 years, $71 million with incentives to $80 million. The $9 million worth of incentives aren't the problem (obviously we're of the mindset that contracts should have big signing bonuses and after the first season -- incentive-based salary). Deng was part of the reason why the Bulls fell apart last season, preoccupied with his contract and out for 19 games due to Achilles tendinitis. Consequently, it's no surprise that his numbers dropped. Despite the 23-year-old's generally sound team attitude and special talent, he is 6-9 and just 220, and must improve his floor game to be deserving of that money. Bulls general manager John Paxson held out trading Deng for Pau Gasol, and now this deal appears to preclude re-signing Ben Gordon. Sounds like too much love.
#7
Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
The deal: 5 years, $58 million. To be fair to the Hawks, they were forced into the deal by either matching the Memphis offer sheet or facing the loss of a 22-year-old stat machine. At 6-9, 235 and with hops out of the gym, he has a solid enough career .703 free throw shooting percentage. More impressive are the overall numbers: 17.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 steals and 3.4 assists. He was huge at times in taking the Celtics to seven games in the playoffs, but despite his protestations to the contrary, there are knucklehead tendencies. His erratic attitude toward coach Mike Woodson and inclination to attack teammates in times of duress make him a law of diminishing returns guy. Unless he grows up, that makes the contract iffy -- 58 million ifs.
#6
Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers
The deal: 6 years, $80 million. The Sixers didn't want to pay him that much, and it's doubtful anybody else would have, but they used the 21st century NBA mantra that 'tis better to overpay than to lose him. Based on his regular season of 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals for the 24-year-old swingman, maybe the Scottie Pippen comparisons were real. But he was a wreck in the playoffs, the second of his career. He averaged twice as many turnovers as steals, made just a third of his shots from the field and was 2-of-14 from 3-point range. Granted, adding Elton Brand will remove pressure from Iguodala, but with this kind of money, he should be the star out on the wing making plays so Brand's job is easier. The jury is still out on that.
#5
Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards
The deal: 4 years, $50 million. Let's start with some caveats before we get into why this was an extraordinary reach. Jamison is one of the best character guys in the league on and off the floor, and he's coming off a season when he averaged 21.4 points and 10.2 rebounds, the first 20/10 season of his career. The 6-9, 235-pound forward has missed just 29 games over the past eight seasons -- three in 2007-08 -- but for some reason, it remains painful to watch him play. He's had knee surgery on both knees, and it looks like it unless he has the ball in his hands or is jumping straight up and down. He really can't defend a lamp post now that he's turned 32, and it's hard to fathom what he'll be like by the time he's 35 or 36 as the wear and tear continues.
#4
Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors
The deal: 6 years, $54 million. First of all, let's start out by saying this guy does look like he'll be a double-double machine in the making: he's 6-11, 235, tough, and only 22. Considering the way the game is going with small, more athletic players dominating the floor, perhaps a guy Biedrins' size who is tough and can run has more value. But he's still kind of stiff and he may not improve much from where he is now (.524 career free throw percentage that did rise to .620 last season). For a quality big man, maybe any contract averaging less than eight figures a year is reasonable, but we're talking about someone who just averaged 10.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.
#3
James Posey, New Orleans Hornets
The deal: 4 years, $24 million. On the surface, it may not seem like much of a reach considering Posey has been a key figure off the bench for two of the past three NBA champs. But he'll be 36 the final year of his deal, and his numbers have been dropping. He averaged just 7.4 points. 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals coming off the bench for the Celtics. Perhaps more telling is they didn't want to commit to him for the fourth year, although the size of the annual payout wasn't a problem. The Celtics and Heat let him go after winning a title, so that speaks volumes. He will give the Hornets better perimeter defense, and that's big. But are four years of a deal worth two of value for a role player? Only if the Hornets win a title in the process.
#2
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats
The deal: 6 years, $72 million. If you look on the surface of Okafor's 4-year career, you see a 6-10, 255-pound power player averaging 14.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game and the deal is close to reasonable. But look deeper and you'll see he missed an average of 27 games his first three season before playing all 82 in 2007-08. You'll see he still hasn't expanded his game much, but would still rather not play center. We loved this guy coming out of UConn and its championship season, for his game and class. We even ripped Orlando for taking Dwight Howard instead, and we see how that worked out. So as he approaches his 26th birthday, he has the look of a guy stuck on a plateau for good. That's not a bad thing, he's just overvalued.
#1
Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards
The deal: 6 years, $111 million. The word is the Wizards actually offered him $127 million but he offered to give back the $16 million to save cap room. First of all, we love Gil. He's an incredible streak shooter, one of the most quotable and affable characters in sports today. Having said that, are they frigging crazy? The guy played in 13 games last season, had surgery on his left knee twice during a six-month span, and even though he's just 26, that's just a ludicrous amount of money to guarantee somebody coming off double surgery. He showed nothing in the playoffs, starting the first two games, playing just 94 minutes in four of them and sitting out the last two. Sure, if they didn't sign Gil, the Clippers would have, but then it would have been their folly.
Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors
The deal: 6-year, $66 million. Were it not for the serious ankle injury and surgery of last week we may not have even brought up Monta Ellis or his contract. Now it's impossible not to. Nobody seems to know at the moment how he injured the ankle, and if he refuses to come clean, that leaves a huge trust and credibility issue hanging in the balance for a 22-year-old. This is the guy to whom coach Don Nelson promised to hand the ball in the wake of point guard Baron Davis' defection to the Clippers. Now they'll look to less experienced Marcus Williams, who is at least a natural point guard. Ellis has shown extraordinary ability but what we don't know now is whether or not he can handle the responsibility. We'll find out shortly if this is a minor blip or if he's a classic example of somebody out of high school getting too much too soon.
#8
Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls
The deal: 6 years, $71 million with incentives to $80 million. The $9 million worth of incentives aren't the problem (obviously we're of the mindset that contracts should have big signing bonuses and after the first season -- incentive-based salary). Deng was part of the reason why the Bulls fell apart last season, preoccupied with his contract and out for 19 games due to Achilles tendinitis. Consequently, it's no surprise that his numbers dropped. Despite the 23-year-old's generally sound team attitude and special talent, he is 6-9 and just 220, and must improve his floor game to be deserving of that money. Bulls general manager John Paxson held out trading Deng for Pau Gasol, and now this deal appears to preclude re-signing Ben Gordon. Sounds like too much love.
#7
Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
The deal: 5 years, $58 million. To be fair to the Hawks, they were forced into the deal by either matching the Memphis offer sheet or facing the loss of a 22-year-old stat machine. At 6-9, 235 and with hops out of the gym, he has a solid enough career .703 free throw shooting percentage. More impressive are the overall numbers: 17.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 steals and 3.4 assists. He was huge at times in taking the Celtics to seven games in the playoffs, but despite his protestations to the contrary, there are knucklehead tendencies. His erratic attitude toward coach Mike Woodson and inclination to attack teammates in times of duress make him a law of diminishing returns guy. Unless he grows up, that makes the contract iffy -- 58 million ifs.
#6
Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers
The deal: 6 years, $80 million. The Sixers didn't want to pay him that much, and it's doubtful anybody else would have, but they used the 21st century NBA mantra that 'tis better to overpay than to lose him. Based on his regular season of 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals for the 24-year-old swingman, maybe the Scottie Pippen comparisons were real. But he was a wreck in the playoffs, the second of his career. He averaged twice as many turnovers as steals, made just a third of his shots from the field and was 2-of-14 from 3-point range. Granted, adding Elton Brand will remove pressure from Iguodala, but with this kind of money, he should be the star out on the wing making plays so Brand's job is easier. The jury is still out on that.
#5
Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards
The deal: 4 years, $50 million. Let's start with some caveats before we get into why this was an extraordinary reach. Jamison is one of the best character guys in the league on and off the floor, and he's coming off a season when he averaged 21.4 points and 10.2 rebounds, the first 20/10 season of his career. The 6-9, 235-pound forward has missed just 29 games over the past eight seasons -- three in 2007-08 -- but for some reason, it remains painful to watch him play. He's had knee surgery on both knees, and it looks like it unless he has the ball in his hands or is jumping straight up and down. He really can't defend a lamp post now that he's turned 32, and it's hard to fathom what he'll be like by the time he's 35 or 36 as the wear and tear continues.
#4
Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors
The deal: 6 years, $54 million. First of all, let's start out by saying this guy does look like he'll be a double-double machine in the making: he's 6-11, 235, tough, and only 22. Considering the way the game is going with small, more athletic players dominating the floor, perhaps a guy Biedrins' size who is tough and can run has more value. But he's still kind of stiff and he may not improve much from where he is now (.524 career free throw percentage that did rise to .620 last season). For a quality big man, maybe any contract averaging less than eight figures a year is reasonable, but we're talking about someone who just averaged 10.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.
#3
James Posey, New Orleans Hornets
The deal: 4 years, $24 million. On the surface, it may not seem like much of a reach considering Posey has been a key figure off the bench for two of the past three NBA champs. But he'll be 36 the final year of his deal, and his numbers have been dropping. He averaged just 7.4 points. 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals coming off the bench for the Celtics. Perhaps more telling is they didn't want to commit to him for the fourth year, although the size of the annual payout wasn't a problem. The Celtics and Heat let him go after winning a title, so that speaks volumes. He will give the Hornets better perimeter defense, and that's big. But are four years of a deal worth two of value for a role player? Only if the Hornets win a title in the process.
#2
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats
The deal: 6 years, $72 million. If you look on the surface of Okafor's 4-year career, you see a 6-10, 255-pound power player averaging 14.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game and the deal is close to reasonable. But look deeper and you'll see he missed an average of 27 games his first three season before playing all 82 in 2007-08. You'll see he still hasn't expanded his game much, but would still rather not play center. We loved this guy coming out of UConn and its championship season, for his game and class. We even ripped Orlando for taking Dwight Howard instead, and we see how that worked out. So as he approaches his 26th birthday, he has the look of a guy stuck on a plateau for good. That's not a bad thing, he's just overvalued.
#1
Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards
The deal: 6 years, $111 million. The word is the Wizards actually offered him $127 million but he offered to give back the $16 million to save cap room. First of all, we love Gil. He's an incredible streak shooter, one of the most quotable and affable characters in sports today. Having said that, are they frigging crazy? The guy played in 13 games last season, had surgery on his left knee twice during a six-month span, and even though he's just 26, that's just a ludicrous amount of money to guarantee somebody coming off double surgery. He showed nothing in the playoffs, starting the first two games, playing just 94 minutes in four of them and sitting out the last two. Sure, if they didn't sign Gil, the Clippers would have, but then it would have been their folly.
