http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffshifts092309&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
The Jets have seen their playoff chances sky-rocket from a preseason 11 percent to more than 60 percent because they have won two games in which they were the underdogs. Meanwhile the Patriots have suffered a gigantic drop to 57 percent for two reasons. First, they lost to a division rival (the Jets) and second, their poor play to start the season and injuries on defense have hurt their winning percentage in future games. Their playoff percentage will increase substantially over the coming weeks if they can prove that they can perform close to 2007 levels. The Bills increased their playoff probability to 25 percent despite being just 1-1 because their quality of play has been high.
The Bengals were the second biggest underdog in Week 2 and by beating Green Bay they significantly improved their playoff chances. The Steelers saw the biggest drop off in the AFC North not only because they lost a game they were favored to win, but because their primary rival, Baltimore, won a game they were expected to lose.
The Colts are 2-0 but their playoff percentage increased significantly because their primary preseason competition in the AFC South, Tennessee, is a surprising 0-2. Tennessee dropped more than 13 percentage points to the primary benefit of the Colts and Texans. The Texans’ chances improved nearly 8 percentage points, but this was less than you might expect given the magnitude of their upset victory of the Titans. The good start from the Colts and additional wild-card competition from the Jets, Patriots, and Bills somewhat limited the Texans’ improvement.
The Chargers are just 1-1 and their playoff chances did drop nearly 13 percentage points, but they are still a 77 percent favorite to win the AFC West. The Broncos are a surprising 2-0 and now have a somewhat shocking 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. The winner of the Broncos and Raiders game in Week 3 is the team most likely to make a surprising run at San Diego.
NFC
The Bears were helped by a pair of missed Steelers field goals, but their big upset victory combined with a very surprising loss by Green Bay did wonders for their playoff chances. The Bears jumped more than 22 percentage points thanks to this combination of factors. It also helped that primary wild-card competitors, the Cowboys and Eagles, both lost home games Sunday. The Packers’ miserable pass protection not only cost them a game they were “supposed” to win in Week 2, it created a negative statistical impact in future games. In other words, until Green Bay proves it can protect Aaron Rodgers(notes), the high sack rate will cost the Packers simulation wins in future games.
The 49ers are 2-0 in the AFC West(lol wtf) and have seen their preseason chances of making the playoffs increase from 28 to 57 percent. The Cardinals actually saw a bigger jump this past week because Arizona picked up a road win in conditions they rarely succeed in (early East Coast game) and the 49ers won a game in which they were favored. The Seahawks are the big losers of the week not only because they lost a game, but because they may have lost Matt Hasselbeck(notes) for at least one week.
The Saints and Falcons both saw their playoff chances increase after going 2-0 and seeing another NFC South competitor, Carolina, drop to 0-2. The Saints improved more than the Falcons because they scored a win over another playoff contender, Philadelphia. The Falcons did pick up a big division victory and have a strong 60 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is fourth best in the NFC.
The Cowboys and Eagles both suffered costly home losses. Home losses are always costly, but the Eagles loss was especially costly because it was to New Orleans, a team they might have to compete with for a wild card. The Cowboys loss was also doubly damaging because it was to division rival New York. The Giants now have a strong 52 percent chance of winning the NFC East after going 2-0 and potentially discovering a replacement for Plaxico Burress(notes) in Mario Manningham(notes).
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
The Jets have seen their playoff chances sky-rocket from a preseason 11 percent to more than 60 percent because they have won two games in which they were the underdogs. Meanwhile the Patriots have suffered a gigantic drop to 57 percent for two reasons. First, they lost to a division rival (the Jets) and second, their poor play to start the season and injuries on defense have hurt their winning percentage in future games. Their playoff percentage will increase substantially over the coming weeks if they can prove that they can perform close to 2007 levels. The Bills increased their playoff probability to 25 percent despite being just 1-1 because their quality of play has been high.
The Bengals were the second biggest underdog in Week 2 and by beating Green Bay they significantly improved their playoff chances. The Steelers saw the biggest drop off in the AFC North not only because they lost a game they were favored to win, but because their primary rival, Baltimore, won a game they were expected to lose.
The Colts are 2-0 but their playoff percentage increased significantly because their primary preseason competition in the AFC South, Tennessee, is a surprising 0-2. Tennessee dropped more than 13 percentage points to the primary benefit of the Colts and Texans. The Texans’ chances improved nearly 8 percentage points, but this was less than you might expect given the magnitude of their upset victory of the Titans. The good start from the Colts and additional wild-card competition from the Jets, Patriots, and Bills somewhat limited the Texans’ improvement.
The Chargers are just 1-1 and their playoff chances did drop nearly 13 percentage points, but they are still a 77 percent favorite to win the AFC West. The Broncos are a surprising 2-0 and now have a somewhat shocking 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. The winner of the Broncos and Raiders game in Week 3 is the team most likely to make a surprising run at San Diego.
NFC
The Bears were helped by a pair of missed Steelers field goals, but their big upset victory combined with a very surprising loss by Green Bay did wonders for their playoff chances. The Bears jumped more than 22 percentage points thanks to this combination of factors. It also helped that primary wild-card competitors, the Cowboys and Eagles, both lost home games Sunday. The Packers’ miserable pass protection not only cost them a game they were “supposed” to win in Week 2, it created a negative statistical impact in future games. In other words, until Green Bay proves it can protect Aaron Rodgers(notes), the high sack rate will cost the Packers simulation wins in future games.
The 49ers are 2-0 in the AFC West(lol wtf) and have seen their preseason chances of making the playoffs increase from 28 to 57 percent. The Cardinals actually saw a bigger jump this past week because Arizona picked up a road win in conditions they rarely succeed in (early East Coast game) and the 49ers won a game in which they were favored. The Seahawks are the big losers of the week not only because they lost a game, but because they may have lost Matt Hasselbeck(notes) for at least one week.
The Saints and Falcons both saw their playoff chances increase after going 2-0 and seeing another NFC South competitor, Carolina, drop to 0-2. The Saints improved more than the Falcons because they scored a win over another playoff contender, Philadelphia. The Falcons did pick up a big division victory and have a strong 60 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is fourth best in the NFC.
The Cowboys and Eagles both suffered costly home losses. Home losses are always costly, but the Eagles loss was especially costly because it was to New Orleans, a team they might have to compete with for a wild card. The Cowboys loss was also doubly damaging because it was to division rival New York. The Giants now have a strong 52 percent chance of winning the NFC East after going 2-0 and potentially discovering a replacement for Plaxico Burress(notes) in Mario Manningham(notes).
