A major earthquake in California is a matter of when, not if. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 62 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years. Extend that forecast to the entire state, and a big one is a near certainty.
When asked where the next big Bay Area quake is likely to be, most geologists will bet on the Hayward Fault, which runs along the eastern side of the bay through a densely populated area that includes Oakland, Berkeley and Hayward. The last major quake on that fault struck 140 years ago in 1868, and the average time between big ones is 140 years.
"The next large earthquake could occur at any time," said geologist Brad Aagard of the USGS at a press conference today. "We expect it to be between a magnitude 6.8 and 7.2."
Aagard created several video simulations of Bay Area earthquakes, including the one directly above of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault. The ground motion is exaggerated by 1,000 to help with the visualization. The red color indicates very violent shaking that can cause significant damage.
Seismologist Mary Lou Zoback of Risk Management Solutions in Hayward estimates a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on Hayward fault quake could result in $200 billion in damage from shaking, thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
Zoback likens the quake aftermath to that of Hurricane Katrina, which caused a similar amount of damage. The difference is that only 7 or 8 percent of the Bay Area's losses will be covered, far less than the $56 billion that flowed into Louisiana from insurance companies after Katrina.
"We'll have a comparable size loss and only about $8 billion in insurance payments."
When asked where the next big Bay Area quake is likely to be, most geologists will bet on the Hayward Fault, which runs along the eastern side of the bay through a densely populated area that includes Oakland, Berkeley and Hayward. The last major quake on that fault struck 140 years ago in 1868, and the average time between big ones is 140 years.
"The next large earthquake could occur at any time," said geologist Brad Aagard of the USGS at a press conference today. "We expect it to be between a magnitude 6.8 and 7.2."
Aagard created several video simulations of Bay Area earthquakes, including the one directly above of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault. The ground motion is exaggerated by 1,000 to help with the visualization. The red color indicates very violent shaking that can cause significant damage.
Seismologist Mary Lou Zoback of Risk Management Solutions in Hayward estimates a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on Hayward fault quake could result in $200 billion in damage from shaking, thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
Zoback likens the quake aftermath to that of Hurricane Katrina, which caused a similar amount of damage. The difference is that only 7 or 8 percent of the Bay Area's losses will be covered, far less than the $56 billion that flowed into Louisiana from insurance companies after Katrina.
"We'll have a comparable size loss and only about $8 billion in insurance payments."
