Six NFL playoff teams that might not make it back
By Mike Florio - SportingNews 9 hours, 41 minutes ago
When picking the teams that will make the playoffs in a given year, the so-called experts (as opposed to the so-called idiots, of which I proudly am one) typically play it safe.
They look at the dozen franchises that made it a year ago, and they replace maybe the bottom team in each conference's playoff field with a team that was close to qualifying.
But the reality is that, typically, half of the teams that played in the postseason last year won't be back the next time around.
In 2008, more than half of the 2007 playoff teams didn't return for an encore.
Seven of the 12 franchises didn't qualify again. In the AFC, only two of the six from the year before were bounced; in the NFC, the turnover rate was 83.3 percent as five of the six teams that qualified in 2007 were left holding a big bag of nothing in '08.
ADVERTISEMENT
For present purposes, we'll assume that six of the teams will make it back and six won't.
Today's challenge? Identifying the six teams that will play only 16 games that count this season.
1. Miami Dolphins
No one saw the Dolphins coming in 2008. This year, everyone does.
Their reward for winning the AFC East last year includes a first-place schedule, which features games against the Steelers and the Chargers, and games against every team in the AFC South and NFC South.
Oh, and two against the Patriots.
Last year, New England racked up 48 points against the Fins in Miami. With Matt Cassel(notes) at quarterback. With Tom Brady(notes) back, the Pats could score 70.
The '08 Dolphins also benefited from the absence of injuries. This season, chances are the Dolphins will be dealing with many more major and minor sprains and strains and snaps and cracks. And a harder schedule. And an improved Patriots team. And a bigger target on their backs.
So, yeah, it might be too much to expect the Dolphins to match last year's unlikely feat.
2. Tennessee Titans
Last year, the Titans' season started with a thud. Sure, they beat the Jaguars. But quarterback Vince Young(notes) suffered a sprained knee and a fractured ego.
Enter Kerry Collins(notes), who did just enough to complement a great defense and a strong running game to propel the Titans to the best regular-season record in the league.
This year, however, the guy who made that defense go—defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth(notes)—is long gone.
And Kerry Collins is still the starter.
And the receivers really aren't all that much better.
And defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is coaching the Lions.
And the up-and-down Jaguars are due to be up again.
And the Texans seem poised to finally make the playoffs.
Odd men out? Yep, the Titans.
3. San Diego Chargers
Last year, the San Diego Chargers needed a miracle to capture the watered-down AFC West and make it to the playoffs.
This year, lightning might not strike again.
On paper, the Chargers have the talent. But questions persist regarding whether Norv Turner is the right man for this or any NFL head-coaching job.
So even with Philip Rivers(notes), LaDainian Tomlinson(notes), Darren Sproles(notes) and a healthy Shawne Merriman(notes) and a healthy Jyles Tucker(notes) and a rookie first-rounder who does the same thing that both of them do, it might not be enough to make it four straight division titles in a wide-open AFC West featuring teams in Kansas City and Oakland that might be more dangerous than expected. (We can forget about the Broncos.)
4. New York Giants
I know, I know. I said last year that the Giants wouldn't follow their Super Bowl title with another playoff appearance.
So maybe, if I say it again, the odds will be in my favor.
This time around, my confidence is bolstered by the fact that the Giants can't consistently move the ball without a high-end wideout like Plaxico Burress(notes). Apart from what he does when he catches the ball, his mere presence opens up the rest of the offense by requiring teams to devote two defenders to him at all times.
So, once he was gone for the year due to an unfortunate incident involving a gun, a bullet and his leg, the Giants weren't the same.
He's now gone for good, and even though rookies Hakeem Nicks(notes) and Ramses Barden(notes) might replace his production, they won't command the same respect that essentially reduces the field to 10-on-9.
5. Minnesota Vikings
Once every few years, the Vikings are the trendy pick to get back to the Super Bowl.
Thirty-three years and counting, they've yet to deliver on the expectations.
This year, many will dub the Vikings as a potential Super Bowl team.
And for good reason. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the game. The defense remains solid, especially against the run. Defensive end Jared Allen(notes) punctuates a great pass rush.
The biggest question mark—the passing game—could become an exclamation point if Brett Favre(notes) ends up becoming the quarterback.
With or without Favre, there's something about this team that just doesn't click. Plenty of their fans sense it, even if they won't admit it to themselves during the high-hopes phase of the calendar, when everyone is 0-0.
Frankly, it's the coach. And if the Vikings don't make it back to the playoffs in 2009, there will be a new one in Minnesota next year at this time.
6. Arizona Cardinals
I've said it before, I'll say it again—the fact that the Cardinals have finally made it to a Super Bowl doesn't mean they finally know how to run a successful football operation.
Yes, they've re-signed quarterback Kurt Warner(notes) after basically inviting him to find another job. And they've addressed one of the primary weaknesses on the roster by taking running back Chris "Beanie" Wells at the bottom of round one.
But this team has issues. Multiple assistant coaches are gone, including the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator.
Receiver Anquan Boldin(notes) still wants out, and the team has engaged in a half-hearted effort to create the impression that meaningful trade talks occurred.
They didn't. The Cardinals dragged their feet and didn't give Boldin's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, permission to work out a contract with a new team. So, now, the Cardinals likely are shrugging their shoulders (do birds have shoulders?) and taking the position that, well, they tried.
Meanwhile, they likely don't want to give Boldin the kind of raise he wants.
He behaved in 2008; he might try a different approach in 2009. And the Cardinals might regret not dealing with the situation differently.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the hunted, for the first time in a very long time. And so every week they'll see the best that the opponents have to offer, and when the dust settles they'll likely be back in a more familiar position—out of the running for the silver trophy they almost won in February.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
