Scouts Inc Analysis of this weeks big games

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May 15, 2002
5,879
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Going to this game this saturday - go bears, bowling for roses

California at USC Matchups

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach Overall


Cal Offense vs. USC Defense
Cal head coach Jeff Tedford's spread passing attack is predicated on timing and rhythm, so it needs a quarterback who can make quick decisions and deliver the ball accurately. QB Nate Longshore has played well for most of the season, but Arizona did an excellent job of keeping him off balance last week and he struggled mightily. USC will look to do the same with pressure and different looks. The Trojans will blitz from different areas of the field and will drop seven into coverage at other times, forcing Longshore to adjust on the fly. In addition, the noise level at the Coliseum will make it difficult for Longshore to adjust the protection, audible and use hard counts to keep the Trojans' front seven honest. The good news for Bears' fans is Longshore should be able to find receivers DeSean Jackson, Robert Jordan and Lavelle Hawkins when he gets time. Though DC Terrell Thomas can run with all three receivers, the Trojans don't have elite depth at corner and Cal's multiple-receiver sets should create some favorable single-coverage matchups consequently. However, it's critical the Bears don't allow USC to get to Longshore early. If they are forced to run more max-protections schemes out of their two tight-end and/or two-back sets it will make it easier for the Trojans to adjust the coverage to take away the big play.

No. 17 California at No. 4 USC
vs.

When: Nov. 18, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Where: Los Angeles
Preview: Pac-10 title on line when USC hosts California
Though Cal frequently spreads the field, it's a balanced offense and offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar should get RB Marshawn Lynch more involved in the game plan this week. Lynch, who carried the ball 16 times last week, possesses a rare blend of power and explosiveness, so he rarely goes down with the first hit. Getting him more carries will help take some pressure off Longshore, set up the play action package and put the Bears in better position to sustain long drives that keep their defense well rested. However, that doesn't mean Lynch is going to have a big game. As long as the Trojans stay disciplined and tackle well, they are capable of limiting Lynch's production and putting Longshore in situations with pass-heavy tendencies. There is adequate size at defensive tackle and their defensive ends are disruptive. With the front four holding its own, the tenacious linebackers shouldn't have to fight trough a lot of traffic. Secondly, the Trojans have outstanding size in the secondary and Nickel back Mozique McCurtis weighs 225 pounds. As a result, spreading them out and forcing them to go to their Nickel package doesn't weaken the run defense as much as it would with other teams.
USC Offense vs. Cal Defense
The Trojans backfield is banged up. RB Chauncey Washington is dealing with a knee injury, backup Emmanuel Moody could miss this game with an ankle injury and reserve C.J. Gable has been hindered by a groin injury. The situation has gotten so bad that Stafon Johnson, who has carried the ball three times this year, has gotten some work with the first team. Washington and Gable are expected to play, but they will be playing hurt, so it's important the offensive line creates quality seams for them -- and that could prove difficult when they run inside. The strength of the Cal run defense is in the middle, where there is excellent size at defensive tackle and MLB Desmond Bishop plays with a mean streak. While OC Ryan Kalil is one of the best in the nation, he lacks elite size and power so USC should have some problems getting push up the middle. The Trojans backs should have more success getting outside, especially when they run left. LOT Sam Baker is quick enough to regularly seal the edge and athletic enough to sustain his blocks. ROT Kyle Williams isn't as explosive or agile as Baker. However, he's big enough to engulf defensive ends Abu Ma'afala and Nu'u Tafisi.
USC should attack DC Syd'Quan Thompson early and often when QB John David Booty drops back to pass. First off, no player in Division I-A football has more interceptions than Daymeion Hughes, who starts opposite Thompson. No statistic is as important as turnovers, and Booty needs to take care of the football, so he should look to throw away from Hughes as much as possible. Secondly, Thompson will have a hard time matching up with wide receivers Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith. Jarrett's combination of size and speed will give Thompson problems and he isn't explosive enough to mirror Smith. However, it won't matter how open the receivers are if Booty doesn't get enough time to find them or enough space to step into his throws, so sound pass protection is critical. The biggest priority should be keeping DT Brandon Mebane out of the backfield. Mebane is an explosive pass rusher who is relentless in pursuit and Booty, like most quarterbacks, isn't as accurate throwing on the run as he is when his feet are set. Pressure up the middle forces Booty to move around and get rid of the ball quickly, greatly increasing the chances of him making a mistake. Look for the Trojans to frequently double team Mebane.

Special Teams
Cal PK Tom Schneider has been reliable, as he has connected on 10 of his 12 field goal attempts and both misses came from beyond 50 yards. He also has the power to connect on the occasional long-range field goal attempt. P Andrew Larson handles the kickoff duties, and he generally gets excellent distance. As a punter, Larson shows good range and he has placed 13 of his 39 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. The kickoff return unit has been inconsistent but KORs Justin Forsett and Marcus O'Keith have excellent top-end speed and they are capable of breaking some long returns. DeSean Jackson is one, if not the most, dangerous punt return men in the nation. He has returned four punts for touchdowns, including one he took 95 yards last week. As a result, a USC punt cover unit that surrendered a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown against Oregon State three weeks ago must have a strong game.
Trojans PK Mario Danelo has connected on 10 of his 11 field goal attempts and the lone miss came on the road, but it's worth noting that he has attempted just one field goal during USC's last four games. Backup Troy Van Blarcom handles the kickoff duties and he has the range to regularly kick the ball into the end zone. P Greg Woidneck gets adequate distance on his kicks and he is capable of pinning the Bears inside their own 20-yard line. KOR C.J. Gable reaches his top speed quickly and can go the distance if his blockers open up a seam for him. Though he hasn't been as productive as hoped, PR Desmond Reed is a shifty runner who explodes upfield and can make defenders miss.

Matchups
• USC WR Steve Smith vs. Cal DC Syd'Quan Thompson
• Cal RB Marshawn Lynch vs. USC MLB Rey Maualuga
• USC RB Chauncey Washington vs. Cal MLB Desmond Bishop


Scouts' Edge
Pac-10 fans have been waiting for this matchup all year, but don't expect the score to be as close as some might think or hope. Although both teams are 6-1 in the conference, the Trojans seem to be playing their best football of the season and the Bears lost to a mediocre Arizona team last week. In addition, this game is at the Coliseum and USC is back in the national championship race, so the environment will be hostile. Lynch will break some electrifying runs, but the Trojans' talented front seven will prevent him from controlling the tempo of the game and it will force Longshore to make plays. USC will confuse Longshore with a number of different looks and pressure him into making some poor decisions and/or errant throws. Offensively, the Trojans place a high premium on balance. They will run the ball despite the many injuries in the backfield and their backs will be productive enough to keep the Bears honest. In addition, Booty will find his receivers downfield for some big plays and force Cal to back their safeties up, effectively opening up the run.

Prediction: Trojans 35, Golden Bears 21
 
May 15, 2002
5,879
8
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49
#2
Michigan at Ohio State Matchups

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach Overall


Michigan Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Ohio State's defense is a classic bend-but-don't-break unit that is tied for fifth in the nation in takeaways (with 27). The Buckeyes create their own opportunities by applying lots of pressure and flying around the field with great intensity -- nobody more so than MLB James Laurinaitis. On the flip side, the weakness of this unit is that it will occasionally give up too many yards on the ground. With that in mind, Michigan matches up well on offense because it runs the ball more effectively than any of Ohio State's prior opponents, while averaging less than one giveaway per game. So, per usual, RB Mike Hart will be Michigan's most valuable asset Saturday.
No. 2 Michigan at No. 1 Ohio State
vs.

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Columbus, Ohio
Preview: BCS title-game berth on line as Ohio State hosts Michigan

The Wolverines are 17-1 when Hart hits the 100-yard mark as a runner, so don't expect offensive coordinator Mike DeBord to deviate from the team's typical run-first philosophy. Ohio State has obviously studied the film in preparation for defending Michigan's new zone-blocking ground attack, but it still might be surprised by the improved quickness of the Wolverines' offensive line. Michigan's O-line has trimmed down from a year ago and is much more athletic, while the "zone-run" has proven to be a great fit for Hart, who possesses outstanding patience, vision and initial burst as a runner. Despite his diminutive 5-foot-9 frame, Hart is carrying a heavy load (25.3 carries per game this season). He is a decisive, quick and powerful runner who can wear the Buckeyes down if fed enough touches Saturday. Furthermore, Hart has done an exceptional job with ball security, which should prove to be a huge asset against an opportunistic Buckeyes defense. Hart has lost just one fumble in his three-year collegiate career, and it happened in September 2004 (Iowa).

The Wolverines, who have surrendered just 19 sacks in 11 games this season, should do a good job of protecting QB Chad Henne. For starters, the Buckeyes' top pass-rusher, DT Quinn Pitcock (eight sacks), resides on the interior of the defensive line. While Pitcock is certainly a difference-maker, the Wolverines should be able to keep him in check by consistently double-teaming him with ROG Alex Mitchell and OC Mark Bihl. LOG Adam Kraus is quick enough to keep RDT David Patterson in check one-on-one, and DEs Jay Richardson and Vernon Gholston do not pose much of an athletic threat as perimeter pass-rushers versus Michigan's outstanding offensive tackle duo of Jake Long (LOT) and Rueben Riley (ROT). So if Ohio State wants to pressure Henne with any sort of regularity, defensive coordinator Jim Heacock will need to take chances with the blitz. Then it's up to Henne and his receivers to communicate in order to exploit some man-to-man coverage.

The Buckeyes mix in a lot of different coverage looks during a game. Usually they employ some form of man-to-man or three-deep coverage, but they also will sprinkle in some Cover 2 zone when facing three-receiver sets. Preventing WR Mario Manningham from striking quickly on the deep ball is a high priority, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Buckeyes take a more conservative approach than usual in their defensive secondary. Since missing three games with a knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery, Manningham took just eight snaps against Ball State before catching two passes at Indiana on Saturday. While there could be some timing issues between Henne and his premier vertical weapon, it did not appear versus Indiana that Manningham has any lingering physical affects from the injury. He has a knack for coming up with big plays in key situations, as witnessed by his combined 250 receiving yards and five touchdowns in key wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin this season. With that in mind, expect Henne to dial up Manningham's number off the play-action on several occasions -- most of which will inevitably be go routes, deep posts and post corners. CB Malcolm Jenkins has emerged this season as one of the best pure cover corners in the nation (as a sophomore). He displays an impressive combination of athleticism and ball skills for his size. Regardless, Heacock knows he can only gamble so much with Jenkins on an island versus Manningham before he pays the price, which is why FS Jamario O'Neal will spend much of the afternoon cheating over the top of Manningham in bracket-type coverage.

With so much attention being given to Hart on the ground and Manningham via the air, Michigan WRs Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington should have the room they need to operate and could emerge as surprise heroes in this game. Breaston is coming off one of his best career performances against Indiana, and he's capable of beating No. 2 cornerback Antonio Smith one-on-one after the catch for a big gain or two. Also, while Arrington remains a bit inconsistent, he has the size and big-play flair to exploit a mismatch if left alone versus Ohio State nickel cornerback Donald Washington.

Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Ohio State's biggest advantage over Michigan from a personnel perspective is at the quarterback position. Henne can be an effective distributor in the passing game, but Troy Smith is a proven playmaker and big-game performer. Smith has rushed for only 221 net yards this season, but he's athletic enough to buy second chances as a passer. He's also elusive and fast enough to exploit Michigan's defense if it fails to keep gap discipline up front or if its linebackers and defensive backs get caught with their backs turned in man-to-man coverage.

While Smith is running more of late, he still is a patient pocket passer with the arm strength and accuracy to exploit Michigan's secondary through the air, if given time. Smith is completing 66.4 percent of his passes this season with a remarkable touchdown-to-interception ratio of 26-to-4. He makes sound decisions, sees the entire field and rarely will get caught locking on to his primary target.

Michigan LCB Leon Hall is one of the nation's premier cover corners. He lacks elite speed but makes up for it with outstanding instincts, athleticism and toughness. The Wolverines take advantage of Hall's cover skills by frequently leaving him alone on an island, which affords defensive coordinator Ron English the luxury of being more creative and aggressive with his safeties, Jamar Adams (SS) and Brandent Englemon (FS). English can't leave Hall in man-to-man coverage all afternoon, but don't be surprised if the senior cornerback is locked in one-on-one versus WRs Ted Ginn Jr. or Anthony Gonzalez more than half the time. Unfortunately for English, Hall can cover only one receiver at a time, because there's a significant drop-off in talent after Hall. That does not bode well against the trio of Ginn, Gonzalez and Brian Robiskie, which has combined for 1,644 yards and 19 touchdowns on 118 receptions in 11 games this season. The Buckeyes do a good job of moving Ginn around to generate speed mismatches versus slower cornerbacks, so don't be surprised to see Ginn working more frequently on the left side versus RCB Morgan Trent. Ginn is at his best on vertical routes that give him time to get over the top of defenders in coverage. The Buckeyes also attempt to maximize his speed by getting him the ball on quick-hitting throws and reverses.
The only way the Wolverines can avoid a breakdown in their defensive secondary in this game is to get a consistent and disciplined pass-rush on Smith. Generating pressure has not been a problem for Michigan this season, as its defense ranks second nationally in sacks (with 36). DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley is the team's top pass-rusher with 11 sacks, and he will be working against ROT Kirk Barton most of the game. Barton has great size and good experience, but he will struggle in pass protection versus Woodley's quick first step and athletic double move. The other matchup to watch is on the opposite side, where senior RDE Rondell Biggs will do battle against talented but hobbled LOT Alex Boone, who has missed back-to-back games due to a knee injury. If Boone can't hold up physically, it will force the Buckeyes to call upon Tim Schafer, a fifth-year senior who was benched after starting the first three games of this season at left guard.

While Ohio State owns a distinctive edge in the passing game, establishing a ground attack will be far more challenging versus Michigan's vaunted run defense. RB Antonio Pittman is a bit undersized at 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, but he runs much harder than his "measurables" would indicate. The Buckeyes' junior load-carrier is decisive and tough; he would rather run over defenders than attempt to run around them on the second level. Pittman rarely gets caught dancing in the backfield and he's at his best when he hits the hole hard as a north-south runner. He does not, however, possess the speed or elusiveness to generate yards on his own, which could prove to be a problem versus a Michigan defense that leads the nation (allowing just 29.9 rushing yards per contest).

The Wolverines are unlikely to get much help via their safeties cheating up versus the run, but their front seven is more than capable of shutting Pittman down on its own. NT Terrance Taylor has emerged as an unsung difference-maker in the middle, as he uses good initial quickness and power to tie up opposing centers. As a result, it really puts pressure on the right side of an offensive line to handle Woodley and DT Alan Branch one-on-one. Woodley is extremely active off the edge and will do a good job of protecting his body versus Barton. The even bigger concern for Ohio State has to be ROG T.J. Downing holding up versus the 330-pound Branch. Downing is a technically sound veteran but gives up 25 pounds in this matchup. If the Buckeyes are forced to give Downing help and use LOG Steve Rehring on down blocks versus Taylor, it will really limit what they can do from a play-calling standpoint in the running game. Regardless, the attention that Woodley, Branch, Taylor and Biggs will require up front will give ILB Dave Harris and WLB Prescott Burgess the room they need to pursue Pittman from sideline-to-sideline.

Special Teams
With high-profile return specialists such as Ginn and Breaston, it's surprising that Ohio State and Michigan do not rank among the nation's elite in the return game. In fact, Ohio State ranks 34th nationally in punt-return average and 84th nationally on kickoffs, while Michigan ranks 35th and 47th, respectively.

With that said, Ginn and Breaston are still extremely dangerous weapons that need to be handled with care. Ginn is averaging 12.1 yards per punt return, including a 60-yard touchdown scamper versus Michigan State. However, he has been far less effective handling kickoffs, as Ginn is averaging 20.2 yards on 12 attempts with a long of just 37 yards this season. Breaston handles the vast majority of returns for the Wolverines, and he is averaging 11.4 yards per punt and 25.1 yards per kickoff, including an 83-yard punt return for a TD versus Indiana this past week.
Ohio State is slightly more consistent in the punting game thanks to A.J. Trapasso, who is averaging 41.2 yards per attempt. Trapasso does a fine job of kicking within his coverage, which is a big reason the Buckeyes rank 24th nationally in net punting. Zoltan Mesko has been solid since taking over the reigns as the Wolverines' full-time punter this season. Mesko is averaging an identical 41.2 yards per punt and has shown very good directional skills by landing 14 of his 39 attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

If this game comes down to a field goal, the Wolverines have a decided advantage thanks to battle-tested senior Garrett Rivas, who has connected on 15 of 18 field-goal attempts this season. Ohio State redshirt freshman Aaron Pettrey has been better than advertised (8-of-11), but his inexperience has to be a major concern heading into Saturday's showdown.

Matchups
• Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Michigan CB Leon Hall
• Michigan RB Mike Hart vs. Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis
• Michigan ROG Alex Mitchell vs. Ohio State LDT Quinn Pitcock

Scouts' Edge
There is very little that separates Ohio State and Michigan on paper -- hence the No. 1 and No. 2 rankings in every major poll. So why did the Buckeyes open as the favorite by nearly a touchdown? Here are three good reasons: (1) The game is being played in Columbus; (2) Ohio State has been the higher ranked team since the preseason; (3) coach Jim Tressel has a psychological edge over Lloyd Carr thanks to his 4-1 record versus the Wolverines. However, if the history of this rivalry has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected.

The Buckeyes have exploited slower, less aggressive and unimaginative Michigan teams in past meetings. However, this year's version of the Maize and Blue has undergone a face-lift and will catch the Buckeyes by surprise. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which this game is not decided late in the fourth quarter. This time around, the Wolverines will prove to be in better condition for such a heavyweight fight. Their advantage in the kicking game (Rivas vs. Pettrey) could also prove to be essential. Carr is due to get the upper hand on Tressel. He made some tough offseason coaching changes and has had the Wolverines on a mission since conditioning began last winter. All the sacrifice will finally pay dividends with an upset of Ohio State in The Horseshoe this Saturday, earning Michigan a trip to Glendale, Ariz., to play in the BCS Championship Game.

Prediction: Wolverines 27, Buckeyes 24