HERESY said:
I don't believe the incidents are isolated to the extent you are trying to make the readers believe.
Homicides in US schools
source: Source: National School Safety Center report
Causes of Death in Young People (1999)
The risk of death by school homicide is miniscule in comparison to other causes. In fact, based on 93 incidents that occurred in the nation's 119,000 schools over a ten-year period, the annual probability of a school experiencing a student-perpetrated homicide is about 1 in 11,520.
The odds of a
school experiencing a student-perpetrated homicide from 1992 to 2002 were 1 in 11,520. Federal Statistics put the number of children in school around 140 million.
Thus, the odds of your child dying in a school shooting during a more active period of time than recently (as far as school shootings go) are around 1 in a million.
from Now, where is your evidence to support your claim that these are "fairly isolated events" and have been decreasing nine years straight? A decrease by how many? Is your claim supported by the Safe School Initiative and their findings?
The Safe School Initiative is mainly about the idea of "threat assessment" as a viable way to combat school shootings, and says that this may stop some school shootings. As far as their statistical findings, I really doubt they vary much from the graph I just posted.
Its from a PDF but page 6 states "the odds a child would die by homicide or suicide are no greater than 1 in one million." This includes suicide at school, which does happen. I'm sure if suicide was ruled out the chance will probably be slimmer.
You watch Fox News everyday, and if you didn't you wouldn't even know there was some type of "hysteria".
This is completely incorrect, but it isn't hard to listen to the topics frequently discussed on TV, the radio, at work, etc.
When people say "our children aren't safe in schools" when there is a 1 in a million chance that your child will die at school...thats hysteria.
The problems with most of these children are problems that were never really addressed at home. There is nothing wrong with being hopeful or making attempts to curb problems. Also, you have to consider the fact that while it may not be a school shooting today, it could be some other type of homicide or assualt tommorow (the number of violent crimes commited by youths has increased.)
I have no problem with the first half of this paragraph. As to the idea that an increase in youth violent crime, whether petty, fatal, or somewhere inbetween, I would ask; is the increase statistically relevant? In addition, how much of it is cultural in terms of mass media exposure to violence, and how much will actually lead to more homicide in schools? I guess that relates back to how pronounced the recent increase is.
the truth is you have people on this site who have yet to have kids, and you have people here who will probably have kids within the next five to ten years. However, you do not know what the social climate will be like in this time, nor do you know what the economic future will hold for these people. You can start having three school shootings a week, and if so would the chances of someone here having a kid involved in one go up on the scale?
First, I am among those people, and I would prefer to worry about something more likely to be a real issue to my child. Even if the prevalence of school shootings doubled, and the chance was one in 500,000, I could still have a host of issues more likely to affect my child to worry about.
And yes to the last question, but would it even still be relevant then? 3 a week would be 156 a year, which would be around 3 times our most violent recent year. Even then, it still would likely not affect my child.
How many church shootings have you had within the past nine years? How many rapes at churches have you had within the past nine years? How about assualts? How about any type 1 crime imaginiable?
I made that statement based on an interview with someone who was a sociologist and statistician working on school and other types of violence. I don't remember the name of the guy or w/e. But with 1 in 10,000 schools experiencing shootings, I would not doubt at all that more shootings occur at the places listed above. It's all about what gets media attention.