BYE BYE REEF
Reef 'facing extinction'
Liz Minchin
January 30, 2007
Page 1 of 2 | Single page
SPECIAL REPORT
The Great Barrier Reef will become "functionally extinct" within decades at the current rate of global warming, while wilder weather is set to affect property values and drive up insurance bills in many Australian coastal communities.
A confidential draft of a major international report, obtained by The Age, shows that without massive greenhouse gas emission cuts to slow global warming, damage to coastal areas, key ecosystems and the farming sector is likely to cost Australia's economy billions of dollars.
On Saturday, The Age reported that the world's authoritative body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was preparing to strengthen its findings in a scientific assessment being released in Paris this week.
In coming months, the panel will also release two more reports, summarising key research on global climate impacts and solutions to climate change.
The Age has obtained a draft of the climate impacts report ahead of its release later this year. It includes a chapter on Australia, which warns that coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef is likely to become an annual occurrence by as early as 2030 due to warmer, more acidic seas.
It takes at least a decade for coral to start recovering from severe bleaching. But that may not happen, with average temperatures now expected to increase by about 3 degrees this century, raising the risk that areas of coral will die outright.
Tourism accounts for 4.2 per cent of Australia's economy, with the Barrier Reef alone worth about $5.8 billion a year in associated tourist dollars and sustaining the equivalent of 63,000 full-time jobs.
The reef is one of several iconic areas of Australia identified in the report as "key hot spots' for climate vulnerability. Others include Kakadu National Park's wetlands, the Murray-Darling Basin and alpine zones in southern Australia.
Based on present trends, climate models indicate that the flow of water along streams in the Murray-Darling Basin - home to more than two-thirds of the country's irrigated crops and pastures - will fall by between 10 and 25 per cent by 2050.
Combined with a greater chance of salinity problems, the draft IPCC report estimates the cost to agriculture in the region at $780 million to $1.17 billion.
Climate change will also affect more suburban beaches. Even a moderate sea-level rise is expected to mean that topping up Adelaide's beaches with sand will cost an extra $1.2 million.
Continue to Page 2
Reef 'facing extinction'
Liz Minchin
January 30, 2007
Page 2 of 2
SPECIAL REPORT
The Great Barrier Reef will become "functionally extinct" within decades at the current rate of global warming, while wilder weather is set to affect property values and drive up insurance bills in many Australian coastal communities.
A confidential draft of a major international report, obtained by The Age, shows that without massive greenhouse gas emission cuts to slow global warming, damage to coastal areas, key ecosystems and the farming sector is likely to cost Australia's economy billions of dollars.
On Saturday, The Age reported that the world's authoritative body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was preparing to strengthen its findings in a scientific assessment being released in Paris this week.
In coming months, the panel will also release two more reports, summarising key research on global climate impacts and solutions to climate change.
The Age has obtained a draft of the climate impacts report ahead of its release later this year. It includes a chapter on Australia, which warns that coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef is likely to become an annual occurrence by as early as 2030 due to warmer, more acidic seas.
It takes at least a decade for coral to start recovering from severe bleaching. But that may not happen, with average temperatures now expected to increase by about 3 degrees this century, raising the risk that areas of coral will die outright.
Tourism accounts for 4.2 per cent of Australia's economy, with the Barrier Reef alone worth about $5.8 billion a year in associated tourist dollars and sustaining the equivalent of 63,000 full-time jobs.
The reef is one of several iconic areas of Australia identified in the report as "key hot spots' for climate vulnerability. Others include Kakadu National Park's wetlands, the Murray-Darling Basin and alpine zones in southern Australia.
Based on present trends, climate models indicate that the flow of water along streams in the Murray-Darling Basin - home to more than two-thirds of the country's irrigated crops and pastures - will fall by between 10 and 25 per cent by 2050.
Combined with a greater chance of salinity problems, the draft IPCC report estimates the cost to agriculture in the region at $780 million to $1.17 billion.
Climate change will also affect more suburban beaches. Even a moderate sea-level rise is expected to mean that topping up Adelaide's beaches with sand will cost an extra $1.2 million each year over the next 20 years.
As more Australians move closer to the coast, the number of people living in areas exposed to "climate hazards" such as storms and flooding is expected to double over the next 50 years.
"Climate change is very likely to affect property values and investment through disclosure of increased hazards, as well as affecting the price and availability of insurance," the draft panel report states.
The average damage bill from weather-related disasters in Australia already tops $931 million a year, not including droughts. Such disasters are predicted to become more common and severe due to climate change.
Yet there are a few notes of optimism buried in the report's 20 chapters. Referring to dozens of initiatives that have sprung up in cities across the world, the draft report says that government strategies to cut greenhouse gas emissions with better building standards and energy-saving programs can have added benefits of improving people's quality of life.
And global warming may boost a few countries and industries in the short term, with parts of northern and central Europe potentially able to grow more crops in warmer weather.
But on every continent, climate change is expected generally to make life tougher - and not just for people.
Since the previous IPCC assessment report in 2001, the outlook for many ecosystems has worsened, with growing evidence that about a quarter of all species could face extinction by the end of the century.
The draft report includes projections for how warmer temperatures will affect animals and plants around the world.
Average global temperatures have already risen about 0.7 to 0.8 degrees since 1900. The report says this has contributed to increased bleaching in coral reefs in the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean. It may also have affected Antarctic ecosystems, including reductions in penguin populations.
At 1.8 degrees above 1900 levels, there is expected to be extensive loss of wetland habitat in Kakadu due to rising sea levels. At 2 to 3 degrees higher, it predicts the "complete loss" of Australia's alpine zones and the possible collapse of the Amazon forest system, causing a "huge loss of biodiversity".
While wealthy countries such as Australia will be able to cope much better with problems such as drought and coastal damage, some people will be more at risk than others, including farmers and some indigenous Australians. The report suggests that some Torres Strait Islanders may eventually have to relocate to mainland Australia if severe coastal flooding continues.
In the United States, efforts to rebuild New Orleans after hurricane Katrina could be badly undermined by climate change and subsidence.
Elsewhere, the human and economic costs of climate change are likely to be highest in poor countries, which have typically contributed least to climate change because of their much lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Water shortages will further cripple many African nations, while coastal flooding is already affecting low-lying countries such as Bangladesh and many Pacific islands.
The draft report estimates that by 2080, between 1.1 billion and 3.2 billion people will be suffering from water scarcity problems, between 200 million and 600 million more will be going hungry, and up to 7 million more homes will be at risk from coastal flooding.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I bet Al Gores jumping in his shoes. He sort of reminds me of Bush, in that whenever he gets a sentence full of facts out, he feels as if he was fulfilled his purpose.
FRANK CALIENDO'S IMPRESSION OF BUSH!!!(Watch the 1:10 mark)
Reef 'facing extinction'
Liz Minchin
January 30, 2007
Page 1 of 2 | Single page
SPECIAL REPORT
The Great Barrier Reef will become "functionally extinct" within decades at the current rate of global warming, while wilder weather is set to affect property values and drive up insurance bills in many Australian coastal communities.
A confidential draft of a major international report, obtained by The Age, shows that without massive greenhouse gas emission cuts to slow global warming, damage to coastal areas, key ecosystems and the farming sector is likely to cost Australia's economy billions of dollars.
On Saturday, The Age reported that the world's authoritative body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was preparing to strengthen its findings in a scientific assessment being released in Paris this week.
In coming months, the panel will also release two more reports, summarising key research on global climate impacts and solutions to climate change.
The Age has obtained a draft of the climate impacts report ahead of its release later this year. It includes a chapter on Australia, which warns that coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef is likely to become an annual occurrence by as early as 2030 due to warmer, more acidic seas.
It takes at least a decade for coral to start recovering from severe bleaching. But that may not happen, with average temperatures now expected to increase by about 3 degrees this century, raising the risk that areas of coral will die outright.
Tourism accounts for 4.2 per cent of Australia's economy, with the Barrier Reef alone worth about $5.8 billion a year in associated tourist dollars and sustaining the equivalent of 63,000 full-time jobs.
The reef is one of several iconic areas of Australia identified in the report as "key hot spots' for climate vulnerability. Others include Kakadu National Park's wetlands, the Murray-Darling Basin and alpine zones in southern Australia.
Based on present trends, climate models indicate that the flow of water along streams in the Murray-Darling Basin - home to more than two-thirds of the country's irrigated crops and pastures - will fall by between 10 and 25 per cent by 2050.
Combined with a greater chance of salinity problems, the draft IPCC report estimates the cost to agriculture in the region at $780 million to $1.17 billion.
Climate change will also affect more suburban beaches. Even a moderate sea-level rise is expected to mean that topping up Adelaide's beaches with sand will cost an extra $1.2 million.
Continue to Page 2
Reef 'facing extinction'
Liz Minchin
January 30, 2007
Page 2 of 2
SPECIAL REPORT
The Great Barrier Reef will become "functionally extinct" within decades at the current rate of global warming, while wilder weather is set to affect property values and drive up insurance bills in many Australian coastal communities.
A confidential draft of a major international report, obtained by The Age, shows that without massive greenhouse gas emission cuts to slow global warming, damage to coastal areas, key ecosystems and the farming sector is likely to cost Australia's economy billions of dollars.
On Saturday, The Age reported that the world's authoritative body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was preparing to strengthen its findings in a scientific assessment being released in Paris this week.
In coming months, the panel will also release two more reports, summarising key research on global climate impacts and solutions to climate change.
The Age has obtained a draft of the climate impacts report ahead of its release later this year. It includes a chapter on Australia, which warns that coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef is likely to become an annual occurrence by as early as 2030 due to warmer, more acidic seas.
It takes at least a decade for coral to start recovering from severe bleaching. But that may not happen, with average temperatures now expected to increase by about 3 degrees this century, raising the risk that areas of coral will die outright.
Tourism accounts for 4.2 per cent of Australia's economy, with the Barrier Reef alone worth about $5.8 billion a year in associated tourist dollars and sustaining the equivalent of 63,000 full-time jobs.
The reef is one of several iconic areas of Australia identified in the report as "key hot spots' for climate vulnerability. Others include Kakadu National Park's wetlands, the Murray-Darling Basin and alpine zones in southern Australia.
Based on present trends, climate models indicate that the flow of water along streams in the Murray-Darling Basin - home to more than two-thirds of the country's irrigated crops and pastures - will fall by between 10 and 25 per cent by 2050.
Combined with a greater chance of salinity problems, the draft IPCC report estimates the cost to agriculture in the region at $780 million to $1.17 billion.
Climate change will also affect more suburban beaches. Even a moderate sea-level rise is expected to mean that topping up Adelaide's beaches with sand will cost an extra $1.2 million each year over the next 20 years.
As more Australians move closer to the coast, the number of people living in areas exposed to "climate hazards" such as storms and flooding is expected to double over the next 50 years.
"Climate change is very likely to affect property values and investment through disclosure of increased hazards, as well as affecting the price and availability of insurance," the draft panel report states.
The average damage bill from weather-related disasters in Australia already tops $931 million a year, not including droughts. Such disasters are predicted to become more common and severe due to climate change.
Yet there are a few notes of optimism buried in the report's 20 chapters. Referring to dozens of initiatives that have sprung up in cities across the world, the draft report says that government strategies to cut greenhouse gas emissions with better building standards and energy-saving programs can have added benefits of improving people's quality of life.
And global warming may boost a few countries and industries in the short term, with parts of northern and central Europe potentially able to grow more crops in warmer weather.
But on every continent, climate change is expected generally to make life tougher - and not just for people.
Since the previous IPCC assessment report in 2001, the outlook for many ecosystems has worsened, with growing evidence that about a quarter of all species could face extinction by the end of the century.
The draft report includes projections for how warmer temperatures will affect animals and plants around the world.
Average global temperatures have already risen about 0.7 to 0.8 degrees since 1900. The report says this has contributed to increased bleaching in coral reefs in the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean. It may also have affected Antarctic ecosystems, including reductions in penguin populations.
At 1.8 degrees above 1900 levels, there is expected to be extensive loss of wetland habitat in Kakadu due to rising sea levels. At 2 to 3 degrees higher, it predicts the "complete loss" of Australia's alpine zones and the possible collapse of the Amazon forest system, causing a "huge loss of biodiversity".
While wealthy countries such as Australia will be able to cope much better with problems such as drought and coastal damage, some people will be more at risk than others, including farmers and some indigenous Australians. The report suggests that some Torres Strait Islanders may eventually have to relocate to mainland Australia if severe coastal flooding continues.
In the United States, efforts to rebuild New Orleans after hurricane Katrina could be badly undermined by climate change and subsidence.
Elsewhere, the human and economic costs of climate change are likely to be highest in poor countries, which have typically contributed least to climate change because of their much lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Water shortages will further cripple many African nations, while coastal flooding is already affecting low-lying countries such as Bangladesh and many Pacific islands.
The draft report estimates that by 2080, between 1.1 billion and 3.2 billion people will be suffering from water scarcity problems, between 200 million and 600 million more will be going hungry, and up to 7 million more homes will be at risk from coastal flooding.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I bet Al Gores jumping in his shoes. He sort of reminds me of Bush, in that whenever he gets a sentence full of facts out, he feels as if he was fulfilled his purpose.
FRANK CALIENDO'S IMPRESSION OF BUSH!!!(Watch the 1:10 mark)
