**Official 2008 Electoral College Results Prediction Thread **

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Apr 25, 2002
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#1
**Official Siccness 2008 Electoral College Results Prediction Thread **

Here is my prediction as of Sep 5th (I may revise it as it gets closer) for the presidential election this year. As you can see McCain wins.


McCain = 283

Montana – 3
Idaho – 4
Nevada – 5
Arizona – 10
Utah – 5
Wyoming – 3
Colorado – 9
New Mexico – 5
Alaska – 3
Texas – 34
Oklahoma – 7
Kansas – 6
Nebraska – 5
South Dakota – 3
North Dakota – 3
Missouri – 11
Arkansas – 6
Louisiana – 9
Mississippi – 6
Tennessee – 11
Kentucky – 8
Indiana – 11
Ohio – 20
West Virginia – 5
Virginia – 13
North Carolina – 15
South Carolina – 8
Georgia – 15
Alabama – 9
Florida – 27
New Hampshire – 4



Obama = 255

Washington – 11
Oregon – 7
California – 55
Minnesota – 10
Iowa – 7
Illinois – 21
Wisconsin – 10
Michigan – 17
Pennsylvania – 21
New York – 31
Vermont – 3
Main – 4
Massachusetts – 12
Rhode Island – 4
Connecticut – 7
New Jersey – 15
Delaware – 3
Maryland – 10
Washington DC – 3
Hawaii - 4


Swing states for candidates (odds are better that states will swing McCain than Obama)
Could swing to McCain - WI, MN, IO, MI, PEN - I am currently leaning toward both WI and MI going to McCain
Could swing to Obama - NM, NV, CO, FL, VA, OH - I am currently leaning toward NM, CO, and NV going to Obama (FL, VA, OH are long shots at best)
 
Jul 10, 2002
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#6
Colorado I think has a good shot at going Obama.

Ohio is the most important IMO. Theoretically, Obama should take Ohio (Cleveland, Cinci, Columbus) as most electorates with high urban density tend to go 'BLUE'. However, Ohio is one of the states that uses electronic Machines. I believe the Bush train will weigh it's evil forces that stole Ohio in '04 to work the same tricks this year.

Realistically, FL should go Obama, but they'll throw out a lotta votes.

LA would be blue, except Katrina changed that.

NC has a decent shot as well.
 
Nov 24, 2003
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#9
You are kidding right? In the last 11 elections Republicans have won that state, the last Democratic to win in Ohio was Lyndon Johnson and that was in 1964!! You might as well just hand over Texas and Ohio to McCain off top cause they're highly Republican states.

What are you talking about?

Bush BARELY won Ohio in 2004, and a lot of people out there would argue that he didn't actually win it.

That hardly seems like a sure thing for the republicans to me...
 
Mar 4, 2007
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#14
i think michigan might just get the obama vote, people are fucking fed up.
have you EVER BEEN TO DETROIT, shit EVEN the suburbs, people are fucking fed up.
the tax money isn't gettin spent right, kwame is fucking shit up more n more, only got less than a year in jail for 12 felonies...

there are plenty of black, arab, and white people wanting change, and obama is promising that.
the roads don't even have seperation ticks, and they are so tore up that you ruin your tires just driving the speed limit.
THATS ALL problems, DESPITE the drugs and violence issues(mostly detroit shit, violence wise tho)
 
Dec 18, 2002
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#15
McCain = 264

Montana – 3
Idaho – 4
Nevada – 5
Arizona – 10
Utah – 5
Wyoming – 3
Colorado – 9
Alaska – 3
Texas – 34
Oklahoma – 7
Kansas – 6
Nebraska – 5
South Dakota – 3
North Dakota – 3
Arkansas – 6
Louisiana – 9
Mississippi – 6
Tennessee – 11
Kentucky – 8
Indiana – 11
Ohio – 20
West Virginia – 5
Virginia – 13
North Carolina – 15
South Carolina – 8
Georgia – 15
Alabama – 9
Florida – 27




Obama = 275

Washington – 11
Oregon – 7
California – 55
Minnesota – 10
Iowa – 7
Illinois – 21
Wisconsin – 10
Michigan – 17
Pennsylvania – 21
New York – 31
Vermont – 3
Main – 4
Massachusetts – 12
Rhode Island – 4
Connecticut – 7
New Jersey – 15
Delaware – 3
Maryland – 10
Washington DC – 3
Hawaii - 4
New Hampshire – 4
New Mexico – 5
Missouri – 11
 
Dec 2, 2004
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#16
You serious?

In Obama's worst case scenario (assuming he loses his lean states to McCain) Obama still wins with 274.

Predictions of different polling sites:
* FiveThirtyEight.com :Obama 340, McCain 198
* Electoral-Vote.com : Obama 329, McCain 194, Tossup 15
* Princeton Election Consortium : Obama 353, McCain 185
* Real Clear Politics : Obama 264, McCain 163, Toss Ups 111
* Pollster.com : Obama 296, McCain 163, Toss Ups 79
* Karl Rove : Obama 273, McCain 163, Toss Ups 102
* CNN : Obama 250, McCain 189, Toss Ups 99
* Marc Ambinder :Obama 239, McCain 184, Toss Ups 135



My Predictions:
[size=+1]Obama = 353[/size]

Obama Secured States
California (55)
New York (31)
Illinois (21)
Pennsylvania (21)
Michigan (17)
Massachusetts (12)
Maryland (10)
Connecticut (7)
Iowa (7)
Oregon (7)
Hawaii (4)
New Hampshire (4)
Rhode Island (4)
Delaware (3)
DC (3)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)

Obama's Less-Secured States
New Jersey (15)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
New Mexico (5)
Maine (4)

Obama's Lean States
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
North Carolina (15)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)


[size=+1]McCain = 185[/size]

McCain's Secured States
Texas (34)
Tennessee (11)
Arizona (10)
Alabama (9)
Louisiana (9)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (8)
Oklahoma (7)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5)
Utah (5)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

McCain's Less-Secured States
Georgia (15)
Arkansas (6)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)

McCain's Lean states
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
West Virginia (5)
 
Apr 25, 2002
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#17
It is beyond obsurd to rank Virginia that strong for Obama. It is still Red.
No.

Obama will win NJ and Maine, but will have to fight to keep Minn, WI, and NM blue. They are officially up for grabs.
He will win all 3 pretty easy.

Even more obsurd than Virginia is to have NC for Obama. Colorado and Nevada are legit swing states, but they are red. Just like NM, WI & Minn are still Blue, yet up for grabs. Ohio and Florida are still Red.

CO and NV are blue. NM, WI, & MN are not really up for grabs. Ohio and FL are leaning pretty far blue.
 
Dec 18, 2002
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#19
Rictus has a point about Virginia being extremely red--I think if Obama won there it would be the first Democratic win in 40 years...

The polls show these huge leanings for Obama but I think when it comes to election day those numbers will be much closer than the polls predicted.