FOX SPORTS NFL POWER RANKINGS...
http://msn.foxsports.com/name/public/NFL/PowerRankings
(easier to read by clicking link)
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS POWER RANKINGS: Preseason
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
1. Seahawks 13.6 1 1 2 18 29
What curse? The Seahawks are a balanced team with an easy schedule. Any decline on offense will likely be offset by improvement on defense, thanks to a deep and talented front seven. But will their mediocre secondary betray them in the playoffs? NEXT: at DET
2. Colts 12.0 3 2 19 30 21
Will the Colts miss Edgerrin James? Sure. But since 1978, seven teams have lost a running back who gained over 1,000 yards with an average over four yards per carry. These seven teams improved by an average of 1.4 wins. Only the 1990 Rams (who lost Greg Bell) had a losing record. NEXT: at NYG
3. STEELERS 9.6 2 8 16 12 5
Ben Roethlisberger's appendix is really making me question my plan to pick a Steelers repeat. He's probably out two games against two good defenses: against Miami and at Jacksonville. If he misses a third game, that's against division rival Cincinnati. The Steelers project to have the hardest schedule in the league over the first eight games, but their schedule ranks 24th over the last eight. NEXT: vs. MIA (Thu.)
4. BRONCOS 9.7 4 4 17 24 1
Remember when we were skeptical about the idea of Ron Dayne as Denver's featured running back? Even if Denver's system can turn anybody into a 1,000-yard running back, Mike Shanahan would prefer that "anybody" refer to "anybody better than Ron Dayne." NEXT: at STL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
5. CHARGERS 10.4 8 5 8 17 10
Who is Shaun Phillips? He is the linebacker who will start on the outside this year due to Steve Foley's gunshot injuries, and he actually finished second on the Chargers in sacks last year, behind Shawne Merriman. NEXT: at OAK (Mon.)
6. BENGALS 9.8 7 3 24 16 2
For fantasy football players, it's hard to think of a running back who represents less risk than Rudi Johnson. In 2004, he gained 1,454 yards with 12 touchdowns. In 2005, he gained 1,458 yards with 12 touchdowns. He's 27, so he has two more seasons before we begin to expect age-related decline, and he's never been heavily overworked. NEXT: at KC
7. CHIEFS 10.0 10 6 4 22 3
Yes, that's not a misprint; the projection system likes Kansas City's defense more than its Roaf-less offense. Reasons: 1) Kansas City's defense got better late in the 2005 season. 2) Ty Law replacing Eric Warfield. 3) Strong red zone defense in 2005, a good future indicator. 4) Lots of front seven talent added in recent drafts. NEXT: vs. CIN
8. PANTHERS 9.9 6 9 12 20 24
Prediction: If the Carolina Panthers are representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLI, the starting running back will be DeAngelo Williams, not DeShaun Foster. NEXT: vs. ATL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
9. EAGLES 9.9 9 10 9 4 22
The Eagles project to have the easiest schedule in the league over the first half of the year, and one of the five most difficult schedules in the second half. NEXT: at HOU
10. PATRIOTS 9.6 5 7 27 25 28
The projection system includes a variable that drops when a team loses a top wide receiver. These projections are based on Deion Branch holding out all year or forcing a trade; put him back on the Patriots, and they end up with a mean projection of 10.3 wins instead. NEXT: vs. BUF
11. BEARS 10.6 11 17 1 14 32
The Bears aren't just the best defense in the NFL; they're also one of the youngest. The 11 projected starters average just 26 years of age, and only Houston has a projected lineup with a younger average. NEXT: at GB
12. REDSKINS 9.2 12 15 7 5 20
It's hard to tell how much weight we should give Washington's abominable preseason performance. Over the past decade, five teams have gone winless in the preseason after a winning record the year before. For the 2005 Colts, the preseason losses turned out to mean nothing. The other four teams, however, all had losing records: the 2003 Falcons, 2002 Rams, 2000 Chiefs, and 1997 Panthers. If you want to go further back, the 1982 Redskins had a winless preseason, and they won the Super Bowl. NEXT: vs. MIN (Mon.)
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
13. GIANTS 7.8 13 14 13 15 4
I don't know if you've been watching any commercials during the NFL preseason, but apparently Peyton Manning and Eli Manning are actually brothers. NEXT: vs. IND
14. FALCONS 9.0 18 12 5 8 19
The Falcons made a number of good defensive additions, but they desperately needed someone who could clog the middle and stop the run. Hello, Grady Jackson. If he's grown too immobile to have much impact on the pass, no problem — that's what the rest of the Atlanta defensive line is for. Now Falcons fans have to hope Ed Hartwell can get healthy, because they're switching Keith Brooking back to middle linebacker again, and his Pro Bowl selection at that position last year was a joke. He's much better on the outside. NEXT: at CAR
15. JAGUARS 8.5 17 11 15 13 16
The projection system likes the offense slightly more than the defense, but I have a feeling it will be the other way around. Fred Taylor is too worn down to be a feature back at this point, and nobody seems to be stepping up to claim the Jimmy Smith mantle. The Jags went 3-1 in the preseason, but did not score a single point in the first quarter. That's when the starters play, isn't it? NEXT: vs. DAL
16. BUCCANEERS 7.5 16 16 11 27 9
The alternative to Chicago: a strong defense, but not a young one. The Bucs' projected 11 starters average 29.8 years of age, tied with Miami for the oldest defensive lineup in the league. NEXT: vs. BAL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
17. DOLPHINS 8.4 15 22 10 1 27
I should add that I don't think the projection system is fully accounting for the upgrade at quarterback here, and the Dolphins are better than this. Two important issues that people rarely mention when discussing Miami as a playoff contender: excellent special teams (especially the coverage units) and a very easy schedule. NEXT: at PIT (Thu.)
18. COWBOYS 7.5 14 18 18 10 17
The Cowboys were near the top of the league in several preseason passing categories. Dallas was the only team with over 300 yards per game, second in passing attempts, second in completions, first in completion percentage and yards. Amazingly, the ‘Boys also tied with the Saints for fewest sacks allowed, with three. Were the Cowboys facing vanilla, non-blitzing defenses — or have the offensive lines in Dallas and New Orleans really improved that much? I'm thinking the former. NEXT: at JAC
19. RAVENS 7.4 19 20 6 21 7
Repeat after me: Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. NEXT: at TB
20. RAIDERS 7.9 23 21 3 7 6
Surprise! Our statistical projection system says that Oakland is the young defense most likely to take a big jump forward in 2006. In the cutthroat AFC West, this will be good enough for fourth place. NEXT: vs. SD (Mon.)
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
21. BROWNS 5.9 20 28 21 23 26
Things fall apart, the centers cannot hold. Mere anarchy is loosed upon the Cleveland offensive line. NEXT: vs. NO
22. VIKINGS 5.9 20 28 21 23 26
Our projections really don't like the Vikings in 2006, but don't be shocked if they enjoy a second-half surge to match last year's. Minnesota has the easiest projected second half schedule in the league. From Week 9 on, the Vikings play only one team projected to have a winning record (Miami, Week 11). NEXT: at WAS (Mon.)
23. CARDINALS 5.6 21 24 20 32 15
In the preseason, the top three Arizona running backs — Edgerrin James, J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp — had 154 rushing yards on 61 carries, for 2.5 yards per carry and no touchdowns. Those who do not learn from the history of the Houston Texans are doomed to repeat it. NEXT: vs. SF
24. LIONS 7.7 25 19 25 19 30
Mike Furrey started his professional career with the Las Vegas Outlaws of the XFL. He played two seasons in the Arena league with the New York Dragons before he hooked on with the Rams. Furrey was stuck on the end of the St. Louis bench, so last year they tried switching him to safety, and by the middle of the year he was starting. This year, he's back on offense, he's in Detroit, and he beat out two recent top 10 draft picks for the slot receiver job. What a strange career. NEXT: vs. SEA
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
25. TITANS 7.1 27 13 29 6 13
Why on earth are the Titans going with Bobby Wade as their third receiver? According to our numbers, Wade has been the least valuable receiver in football for two straight seasons, and last year the Bears waived him because he couldn't hold on to the ball during punt returns. NEXT: vs. NYJ
26. PACKERS 7.2 26 23 22 26 31
Remember when Najeh Davenport was going to be the hot second-string running back on the free agent market, ready to sign with another team and finally get his turn in the spotlight? Ah, nostalgia. NEXT: vs. CHI
27. RAMS 4.6 24 25 31 28 12
Steven Jackson has the most commonly misspelled name in the NFL, so he can't be happy about Stephen Davis coming aboard to confuse things even further. NEXT: vs. DEN
28. TEXANS 5.4 29 27 28 11 14
Mario Williams comes in to strengthen a unit that was already one of Houston's few strengths. The Texans had a league-average 37 sacks in 2005, but they finished seventh in our Adjusted Sack Rate metric, which measures sacks per pass play adjusted for situation and opponent. They had fewer sacks because losing teams face fewer passes, and Houston's AFC South rivals all featured above-average pass blocking. NEXT: vs. PHI
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
29. BILLS 5.4 31 32 26 2 23
I want Buffalo fans to understand this now, before it becomes an issue next season: crowd signs about Brady Quinn's sister are really tired. NEXT: at NE
30. JETS 5.2 28 31 30 3 25
Special teams are the hardest of the three units to project, but the more consistent components of special teams are punting and kick returns. What were the two places where last year's Jets were actually above average? Punting and kick returns. NEXT: at TEN
31. SAINTS 3.6 30 29 32 29 11
Reggie Bush can make a lot of magic happen, but he cannot play linebacker. NEXT: at CLE
32. 49ERS 4.8 32 30 23 31 18
Gibran Hamdan, the NFL Europe Player of the Year, was cut this week by two teams (Seattle and San Francisco) and hooked up on the 49ers practice squad. Does anyone remember the last player to star in NFL Europe and use that as a springboard to play an important role on an NFL team? Shouldn't we stop pretending that NFL Europe is actually serving a developmental purpose for young ballplayers? NEXT: at ARI
http://msn.foxsports.com/name/public/NFL/PowerRankings
(easier to read by clicking link)
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS POWER RANKINGS: Preseason
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
1. Seahawks 13.6 1 1 2 18 29
What curse? The Seahawks are a balanced team with an easy schedule. Any decline on offense will likely be offset by improvement on defense, thanks to a deep and talented front seven. But will their mediocre secondary betray them in the playoffs? NEXT: at DET
2. Colts 12.0 3 2 19 30 21
Will the Colts miss Edgerrin James? Sure. But since 1978, seven teams have lost a running back who gained over 1,000 yards with an average over four yards per carry. These seven teams improved by an average of 1.4 wins. Only the 1990 Rams (who lost Greg Bell) had a losing record. NEXT: at NYG
3. STEELERS 9.6 2 8 16 12 5
Ben Roethlisberger's appendix is really making me question my plan to pick a Steelers repeat. He's probably out two games against two good defenses: against Miami and at Jacksonville. If he misses a third game, that's against division rival Cincinnati. The Steelers project to have the hardest schedule in the league over the first eight games, but their schedule ranks 24th over the last eight. NEXT: vs. MIA (Thu.)
4. BRONCOS 9.7 4 4 17 24 1
Remember when we were skeptical about the idea of Ron Dayne as Denver's featured running back? Even if Denver's system can turn anybody into a 1,000-yard running back, Mike Shanahan would prefer that "anybody" refer to "anybody better than Ron Dayne." NEXT: at STL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
5. CHARGERS 10.4 8 5 8 17 10
Who is Shaun Phillips? He is the linebacker who will start on the outside this year due to Steve Foley's gunshot injuries, and he actually finished second on the Chargers in sacks last year, behind Shawne Merriman. NEXT: at OAK (Mon.)
6. BENGALS 9.8 7 3 24 16 2
For fantasy football players, it's hard to think of a running back who represents less risk than Rudi Johnson. In 2004, he gained 1,454 yards with 12 touchdowns. In 2005, he gained 1,458 yards with 12 touchdowns. He's 27, so he has two more seasons before we begin to expect age-related decline, and he's never been heavily overworked. NEXT: at KC
7. CHIEFS 10.0 10 6 4 22 3
Yes, that's not a misprint; the projection system likes Kansas City's defense more than its Roaf-less offense. Reasons: 1) Kansas City's defense got better late in the 2005 season. 2) Ty Law replacing Eric Warfield. 3) Strong red zone defense in 2005, a good future indicator. 4) Lots of front seven talent added in recent drafts. NEXT: vs. CIN
8. PANTHERS 9.9 6 9 12 20 24
Prediction: If the Carolina Panthers are representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLI, the starting running back will be DeAngelo Williams, not DeShaun Foster. NEXT: vs. ATL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
9. EAGLES 9.9 9 10 9 4 22
The Eagles project to have the easiest schedule in the league over the first half of the year, and one of the five most difficult schedules in the second half. NEXT: at HOU
10. PATRIOTS 9.6 5 7 27 25 28
The projection system includes a variable that drops when a team loses a top wide receiver. These projections are based on Deion Branch holding out all year or forcing a trade; put him back on the Patriots, and they end up with a mean projection of 10.3 wins instead. NEXT: vs. BUF
11. BEARS 10.6 11 17 1 14 32
The Bears aren't just the best defense in the NFL; they're also one of the youngest. The 11 projected starters average just 26 years of age, and only Houston has a projected lineup with a younger average. NEXT: at GB
12. REDSKINS 9.2 12 15 7 5 20
It's hard to tell how much weight we should give Washington's abominable preseason performance. Over the past decade, five teams have gone winless in the preseason after a winning record the year before. For the 2005 Colts, the preseason losses turned out to mean nothing. The other four teams, however, all had losing records: the 2003 Falcons, 2002 Rams, 2000 Chiefs, and 1997 Panthers. If you want to go further back, the 1982 Redskins had a winless preseason, and they won the Super Bowl. NEXT: vs. MIN (Mon.)
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
13. GIANTS 7.8 13 14 13 15 4
I don't know if you've been watching any commercials during the NFL preseason, but apparently Peyton Manning and Eli Manning are actually brothers. NEXT: vs. IND
14. FALCONS 9.0 18 12 5 8 19
The Falcons made a number of good defensive additions, but they desperately needed someone who could clog the middle and stop the run. Hello, Grady Jackson. If he's grown too immobile to have much impact on the pass, no problem — that's what the rest of the Atlanta defensive line is for. Now Falcons fans have to hope Ed Hartwell can get healthy, because they're switching Keith Brooking back to middle linebacker again, and his Pro Bowl selection at that position last year was a joke. He's much better on the outside. NEXT: at CAR
15. JAGUARS 8.5 17 11 15 13 16
The projection system likes the offense slightly more than the defense, but I have a feeling it will be the other way around. Fred Taylor is too worn down to be a feature back at this point, and nobody seems to be stepping up to claim the Jimmy Smith mantle. The Jags went 3-1 in the preseason, but did not score a single point in the first quarter. That's when the starters play, isn't it? NEXT: vs. DAL
16. BUCCANEERS 7.5 16 16 11 27 9
The alternative to Chicago: a strong defense, but not a young one. The Bucs' projected 11 starters average 29.8 years of age, tied with Miami for the oldest defensive lineup in the league. NEXT: vs. BAL
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
17. DOLPHINS 8.4 15 22 10 1 27
I should add that I don't think the projection system is fully accounting for the upgrade at quarterback here, and the Dolphins are better than this. Two important issues that people rarely mention when discussing Miami as a playoff contender: excellent special teams (especially the coverage units) and a very easy schedule. NEXT: at PIT (Thu.)
18. COWBOYS 7.5 14 18 18 10 17
The Cowboys were near the top of the league in several preseason passing categories. Dallas was the only team with over 300 yards per game, second in passing attempts, second in completions, first in completion percentage and yards. Amazingly, the ‘Boys also tied with the Saints for fewest sacks allowed, with three. Were the Cowboys facing vanilla, non-blitzing defenses — or have the offensive lines in Dallas and New Orleans really improved that much? I'm thinking the former. NEXT: at JAC
19. RAVENS 7.4 19 20 6 21 7
Repeat after me: Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. Steve McNair is not going to be healthy for 16 games. NEXT: at TB
20. RAIDERS 7.9 23 21 3 7 6
Surprise! Our statistical projection system says that Oakland is the young defense most likely to take a big jump forward in 2006. In the cutthroat AFC West, this will be good enough for fourth place. NEXT: vs. SD (Mon.)
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
21. BROWNS 5.9 20 28 21 23 26
Things fall apart, the centers cannot hold. Mere anarchy is loosed upon the Cleveland offensive line. NEXT: vs. NO
22. VIKINGS 5.9 20 28 21 23 26
Our projections really don't like the Vikings in 2006, but don't be shocked if they enjoy a second-half surge to match last year's. Minnesota has the easiest projected second half schedule in the league. From Week 9 on, the Vikings play only one team projected to have a winning record (Miami, Week 11). NEXT: at WAS (Mon.)
23. CARDINALS 5.6 21 24 20 32 15
In the preseason, the top three Arizona running backs — Edgerrin James, J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp — had 154 rushing yards on 61 carries, for 2.5 yards per carry and no touchdowns. Those who do not learn from the history of the Houston Texans are doomed to repeat it. NEXT: vs. SF
24. LIONS 7.7 25 19 25 19 30
Mike Furrey started his professional career with the Las Vegas Outlaws of the XFL. He played two seasons in the Arena league with the New York Dragons before he hooked on with the Rams. Furrey was stuck on the end of the St. Louis bench, so last year they tried switching him to safety, and by the middle of the year he was starting. This year, he's back on offense, he's in Detroit, and he beat out two recent top 10 draft picks for the slot receiver job. What a strange career. NEXT: vs. SEA
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
25. TITANS 7.1 27 13 29 6 13
Why on earth are the Titans going with Bobby Wade as their third receiver? According to our numbers, Wade has been the least valuable receiver in football for two straight seasons, and last year the Bears waived him because he couldn't hold on to the ball during punt returns. NEXT: vs. NYJ
26. PACKERS 7.2 26 23 22 26 31
Remember when Najeh Davenport was going to be the hot second-string running back on the free agent market, ready to sign with another team and finally get his turn in the spotlight? Ah, nostalgia. NEXT: vs. CHI
27. RAMS 4.6 24 25 31 28 12
Steven Jackson has the most commonly misspelled name in the NFL, so he can't be happy about Stephen Davis coming aboard to confuse things even further. NEXT: vs. DEN
28. TEXANS 5.4 29 27 28 11 14
Mario Williams comes in to strengthen a unit that was already one of Houston's few strengths. The Texans had a league-average 37 sacks in 2005, but they finished seventh in our Adjusted Sack Rate metric, which measures sacks per pass play adjusted for situation and opponent. They had fewer sacks because losing teams face fewer passes, and Houston's AFC South rivals all featured above-average pass blocking. NEXT: vs. PHI
Rk Team Proj. wins Summer Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk Sked. Rk
29. BILLS 5.4 31 32 26 2 23
I want Buffalo fans to understand this now, before it becomes an issue next season: crowd signs about Brady Quinn's sister are really tired. NEXT: at NE
30. JETS 5.2 28 31 30 3 25
Special teams are the hardest of the three units to project, but the more consistent components of special teams are punting and kick returns. What were the two places where last year's Jets were actually above average? Punting and kick returns. NEXT: at TEN
31. SAINTS 3.6 30 29 32 29 11
Reggie Bush can make a lot of magic happen, but he cannot play linebacker. NEXT: at CLE
32. 49ERS 4.8 32 30 23 31 18
Gibran Hamdan, the NFL Europe Player of the Year, was cut this week by two teams (Seattle and San Francisco) and hooked up on the 49ers practice squad. Does anyone remember the last player to star in NFL Europe and use that as a springboard to play an important role on an NFL team? Shouldn't we stop pretending that NFL Europe is actually serving a developmental purpose for young ballplayers? NEXT: at ARI
