How, when will ax fall on Nolan?
By Cam Inman
Staff columnist
Article Launched: 10/13/2008 07:05:07 PM PDT
http://www.contracostatimes.com/49ers/ci_10713019?nclick_check=1
EXPLAINING WHY THE 49ers should fire coach Mike Nolan takes longer than one column. We've learned this because that column was written last season.
Thus, we look further down the who-what-where-when-how-and-why spectrum. The most intriguing question is "How?" After the show Al Davis put on exactly two weeks ago at Raiders HQ, coaching changes could be more entertaining than the games by our local juggernauts.
Nolan's fate seems sealed. The 49ers are 2-4 after three straight losses. The defeats get more demoralizing each week. His defense is dead weight, the quarterback play is inferior, and Nolan's game decisions incite verbal riots on sports-talk radio.
The 49ers are headed for more disarray Sunday against the host New York Giants. After a visit from the Seattle Seahawks (and 2009 49ers coaching candidate Mike Holmgren), the 49ers enter their bye week. The Raiders and St. Louis Rams dumped coaches during their bye weeks. The 49ers should, too, unless they win twice and become the 4-4 49ers.
OK, so what will be the exit strategy from the Nolan era?
It's already begun. Think back to January's awkward news conference in which owner John York stripped Nolan of personnel control (aka "The Trigger") and promoted Scot McCloughan to general manager.
Thus, McCloughan, not York, will be the face of the franchise when it's time to drop the guillotine. And so we wonder ...
# Will there be an overhead projector involved? Nobody can top Davis' page-by-page shredding of Lane Kiffin. But don't rule out the 49ers' use of visual aids (see: 2006 unveiling of stadium plans in both San Francisco and Santa Clara).
# Will Nolan vanish in a black van? This harkens back to Steve Mariucci's unjust firing after the 2002 season, when he and his wife left the 49ers facility in a van driven by a team maintenance man. Nolan won't hide. He hasn't so far, and look how bad things have gone.
# Will Nolan escape from New York? Yes, the 49ers will bring him back on their charter jet, just as they did Dennis Erickson after his final game as coach, a 21-7 loss at New England that capped the 2004 season.
# Will the Yorks fire Nolan "for cause," as Davis dismissed Kiffin? There's been no insubordination here. Nolan has been a company man, primarily because he had the run of the company his first three years. Sure, he's had scapegoats (defensive coordinator Billy Davis, offensive coordinator Jim Hostler and, of course, quarterback Alex Smith). But he's never blamed the Yorks, who've given him too many blank checks.
# Will Mike Martz, Mike Singletary or Greg Manusky inform us of Nolan's termination and their subsequent appointment as interim coach? The only way this happens is if McCloughan also gets dismissed (that should not happen), and if the Yorks are busy finalizing those stadium plans (oh yeah, that'll happen).
# Will Martz secretly sell himself to the Yorks as their interim man? Nah, that's too unprofessional. But an eight-game slate would be a worthy tryout for the former St. Louis Rams head coach. Singletary isn't qualified enough as a coach, and Manusky's defense is too soft.
# Will the Yorks dismiss Nolan and launch another prolonged coaching search, at least one that lasts through the bye week? Doubtful. They'd likely promote from within the payroll. Then again, Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, Jim Fassel and Dennis Green are on the lam. Otherwise, the 49ers must wait until season's end to vie for assistants such as Tennessee's Jim Schwartz (runner-up to Nolan in 2005), the Raiders' Greg Knapp (former 49ers coordinator) and the Eagles' Marty Mornhinweg (ex-Lions coach, ex-49ers coordinator). They'd be wise to stay away from college coaches (see: Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and USC's Pete Carroll).
# Will Nolan be devastated? He'll be disappointed, not devastated. This isn't life or death, and this is a man who's attended about as many funerals as 49ers victory celebrations in his tenure here (including the deaths of offensive lineman Thomas Herrion, 49ers icon Bill Walsh and Nolan's father, Dick).
# Will Nolan pave his own exit, aside from the win-loss mark? No. His sleeves were rolled up at Monday's news conference, his steel-eyed determination hasn't wavered and his optimism abounds, even if it's part artificial. He supports Manusky's calls, says Martz has "very good" balance between the run and pass, and the replay-challenge system is also very good "without question."
# Will Nolan actually survive into January before a move is made? This remote possibility hinges on the Yorks' trigger finger, and whether it has a pulse on their disgruntled fan base (and spiraling record).