As the United Nations nuclear watchdog estimated North Korea may have up to six nuclear bombs, key questions being asked here are whether the North plans an imminent test and will it be exploded underground or launched atop a missile.
Analysts say that since Pyongyang announced Feb. 10 it has nuclear weapons, the presumption is that its next step will be to conduct a test, sooner or later.
But analysts are divided whether the reclusive state will carry out a test, aware of risks this will entail - for example, referral to the U.N. Security Council for sanctions or even a pre-emptive U.S. strike on the North`s nuclear facilities.
International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei said Sunday North Korea has close to six nuclear weapons.
Asked by CNN if it was the IAEA`s assessment the North Koreans already have as many as six nuclear bombs, he said, "I think that would be close to our estimation. We knew they had the plutonium that could be converted into five or six North Korean weapons.
"I`m not sure they will gain anything by testing, other than provoking every member of the international community. A North Korean test would cause a lot of insecurity fallout. The impact on the whole East Asia and Japan, South Korea is tremendous."
Speculation about a test deepened when South Korea`s Defense Ministry reported last week Korean and U.S. intelligence have been tracking North Korean construction of underground tunnels in a northeastern region of Gilju County, though the ministry could not verify the purpose of the tunnels.
The New York Times reported U.S. satellites detected construction of some platforms and tunnels, signs North Korea might be getting ready to conduct its first nuclear test nearby.
Some experts say the communist state will not conduct a test since a threat to stage one is a key bargaining chip to raise its stakes in stalled six-nation talks aimed at ending the North`s nuclear ambitions.
But other analysts say the North will be tempted to push ahead as a test is one element of the North`s ultimate goal to arm itself with nuclear weapons to deter any hostile enemy action.
Professor Ryoo Kihl-jae, of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies at Kyungnam University, said North Korea will not conduct a test soon as it does not want to lose its best bargaining chip.
"If I have to bet, I would bet the North not doing the test. At present, it can raise its stakes with sporadic gestures, such as digging tunnels, or laying down railroad. Then why would it lose the key card now?" Ryoo said in a telephone interview.
Pyongyang will conduct a nuclear test since it wishes to be a nuclear state, but it will do so when it has no options, he added.
Baek Seung-joo, a North Korean expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said the North can raise its international status as a nuclear state if it carries out a test, but he felt it will not risk losing its major ally China and further isolating itself.
The government in Seoul, which has been trying to persuade the North not to worsen the situation, has apparently decided on a prudent stance.
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young told reporters yesterday it is necessary to search for facts in the various reports of an imminent test.
A Defense Ministry official said on condition of anonymity that it is too early to say based on the movement of trucks and tunnel construction that the North is ready to conduct a test.
But Kim Tae-woo, a senior researcher at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said North Korea has enough reason to conduct a test.
From the moment it declared it has nuclear weapons, it was warning the outside world not to touch the communist state, he added.
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By Joo Sang-min and news reports
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2005/05/10/200505100026.asp
