Beckett or Prior???
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WELL ANYWAY HERE IS WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/031017boyd.html
Beckett vs. Prior Redux
by Josh Boyd
October 17, 2003
Prior to the 2002 season a debate rattled through Baseball America's offices and permeated throughout the scouting community--who was the best prospect in baseball? (Those who don't believe in pitching prospects should turn away now.) Was it Mark Prior or Josh Beckett?
While we decided on Beckett, who looked dominant in four September starts in 2001, we went to some of the game's best and most experienced talent evaluators to confirm our beliefs. They agreed, though some only deferred to Beckett in a tight race because of his professional track record, while Prior had only his "best college pitcher ever" tag on his side.
Less than two years later, the two 23-year-old aces carried their teams into the National League Championship Series, and Beckett turned in a pair of outstanding peformances. Prior finished a remarkable season in which he ranked third in the NL with a 2.43 ERA, second with 245 strikeouts and tied for second with 18 wins. Beckett, who is four months older than Prior, missed several starts due to a blister for the second straight season, and though his record was just 9-8, 3.04, he made his mark with 152 strikeouts in 142 innings.
While fans around the country were caught up in Dontrelle-mania and fans in Miami turned out in droves to see him pitch, they might pay more attention to Beckett in 2004 after his masterful two-hit, 11-strikeouts shutout to stave off elimination in Game Five of the NLCS, an effort that will go down as one of the greatest performances in postseason history.
Was that enough for him to remain our choice?
"That's a tough question," one National League scouting director said. "It's like asking if I want Willie Mays or Hank Aaron."
Beckett and Prior--future Hall of Famers? Perhaps.
In March 2002, we graded each pitcher's stuff on the 20-80 scouting scale with the help of our scouting experts, and pointed out that our grades on Prior's secondary pitches might even look conservative in a couple years. That's a statement to how advanced he was coming out of college, though it doesn't hold completely true today because he doesn't need to use his solid-average (55) changeup very often.
Beckett, however, has developed a plus-plus changeup (and flashes a devastating 80 changeup) far exceeding the projections for that pitch. "There are times when it's his best pitch; he just doesn't throw it enough," an NL scout said.
He can touch 99-100 mph and pitches in the 93-98 neighborhood. His curveball is a true 12-to-6 power breaker with put-away capability. His present command and control are just average to a tick above, though.
"Beckett has always thrown strikes," the NL scout said. "He's pretty sound mechanically. He threw strikes in the minors and has in the majors. He'll have an occasional bout of wildness because of overthrowing, but that's just inexperience. He just needs to trust his fastball more. Sometimes he tries to throw instead of pitch."
Beckett's three-pitch arsenal might be the best pure stuff in baseball, but it's Prior's command, control and delivery that have given him a slight edge for some in this ongoing debate. "That's the difference," the NL scout said. "Prior has 80 pitchability, where Beckett is probably a 55."
And it's not like Prior's stuff is too shabby, either. He pumps 92-96 mph gas with precise location, up, down, in and out. His breaking pitch is a plus, hard biting curveball with three-quarter break in the strike zone. If his pitches are a hair below Beckett, Prior gets the edge in intangibles.
"Prior is bigger, stronger and more durable," an NL scouting director said. "He has a picture perfect delivery. Out of every player I've ever scouted, he has the best command of a 70 fastball I've ever seen. Usually when you see a 70 fastball, the command is around 50. And his makeup seems to be tremendous."
Though it would be nitpicking, if you had to find some negatives you could point to Prior's heavy workload in his early 20s. For Beckett, he's less polished and advanced than Prior--a factor that could actually work in his favor. "There is no projection to Prior, that's why he got so good, so quick. The key will be how long he can maintain it," the scouting director said. "Beckett is just growing into himself. You could look back in about 15 years and say Beckett was the guy, but if I had to choose today and I'm drafting first I'd take Prior."
Showdown verdict
After conferring with several scouts, who decided Prior would be their choice (though we had to twist their arm to pick one) I'm happy to pick second in that draft, and even if I held the first pick, I'm going against the consensus and sticking with Beckett. Hearing comments like the following make me question my selection, but I'm not wavering: "The pitcher he reminds me of most is (Greg) Maddux, because he can pitch with his fastball," the NL scout said. "He can beat you with just his fastball because of his command."
Prior is certainly the more polished pitcher right now, but I believe Beckett can be better with a few more years of experience. I'm taking a slight risk, betting on Beckett's projection. "For me, Prior is a command pitcher with power stuff, while Beckett is power first, command second and he has a chance to be more dominating," the NL scout said.
What the scouts said in March, 2002:
• "It's not just Beckett's fastball. It's his command and his curveball and his offspeed stuff. It might be the best curveball in the game right now. It's like Bert Blyleven's, and it just comes natural for him. He's really learned how to pitch at a young age. He pounds you inside. He can pitch hard and he can pitch soft. He has an amazing feel for the mound. God, he's unlimited. He's got the mental toughness, too."
• "You might say Beckett only because he's done it at the major league level. But the other guy is the best pitcher I've ever scouted in my life. They're both No. 1 starters. They're both durable as hell. They're both 250-inning guys. They're both going to win 20 games. As far as command of more pitches, it's Prior. Pure stuff, I'd probably give the edge to Prior. Beckett's curveball is a snapdragon, but he doesn't command it as well as Prior. Both have 80 fastballs on our scale, and Prior has better command. His curveball is a strikeout pitch and his changeup is an out pitch. He has three out pitches. Prior probably does it a little easier, but Beckett has done it in the league on TV."
• "If Beckett has command of his changeup, I'd give him the odds. I've always seen Prior fight his changeup a bit against college hitters. His fastball, deception, curveball and command were so good, he didn't need to throw it. But you don't come to the big leagues and perform without a changeup. I've seen him fight it in the bullpen and during games. That's the only negative I could give you on him. Beckett just has outstanding stuff. He throws hard, he locates, he's got a hammer and he has a feel for three pitches."
• "I'd have to take Prior. I never thought I'd have to take Beckett second in anything. I think Prior still has to work the changeup into his mix. There are some things we don't know about him yet, while Beckett has answered about everything. He got himself healthy. But Prior is just so dominant. He's about as dominant as I've ever seen a guy in college. There will be a bump or two along the way, but he has outstanding makeup. He knows what he wants and how to go get it. Beckett has the third pitch right now, but Prior's two pitches might be a tick better. There's no reason to believe he won't throw a good changeup someday. His command is a little bit better, but Josh's has come on too."
• "Prior's stuff is very good but Beckett can be dominant. He's just got better pure stuff. It's one thing to do it against UCLA, but the other guy has shown it in the big leagues."
• "I almost always go to the guy who's done it on the professional level until I've seen the other guy in a professional atmosphere pitching against wood bats. Stuff-wise, they're really close. If you didn't worry about who they've done it against, that would be a fun argument. Just going on pure ceiling, Prior might be ahead a little bit. He might be an instant success."
• "I'd probably take Beckett. You're talking about the two best pitchers in the last six or seven years."
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/031017boyd.html
Beckett vs. Prior Redux
by Josh Boyd
October 17, 2003
Prior to the 2002 season a debate rattled through Baseball America's offices and permeated throughout the scouting community--who was the best prospect in baseball? (Those who don't believe in pitching prospects should turn away now.) Was it Mark Prior or Josh Beckett?
While we decided on Beckett, who looked dominant in four September starts in 2001, we went to some of the game's best and most experienced talent evaluators to confirm our beliefs. They agreed, though some only deferred to Beckett in a tight race because of his professional track record, while Prior had only his "best college pitcher ever" tag on his side.
Less than two years later, the two 23-year-old aces carried their teams into the National League Championship Series, and Beckett turned in a pair of outstanding peformances. Prior finished a remarkable season in which he ranked third in the NL with a 2.43 ERA, second with 245 strikeouts and tied for second with 18 wins. Beckett, who is four months older than Prior, missed several starts due to a blister for the second straight season, and though his record was just 9-8, 3.04, he made his mark with 152 strikeouts in 142 innings.
While fans around the country were caught up in Dontrelle-mania and fans in Miami turned out in droves to see him pitch, they might pay more attention to Beckett in 2004 after his masterful two-hit, 11-strikeouts shutout to stave off elimination in Game Five of the NLCS, an effort that will go down as one of the greatest performances in postseason history.
Was that enough for him to remain our choice?
"That's a tough question," one National League scouting director said. "It's like asking if I want Willie Mays or Hank Aaron."
Beckett and Prior--future Hall of Famers? Perhaps.
In March 2002, we graded each pitcher's stuff on the 20-80 scouting scale with the help of our scouting experts, and pointed out that our grades on Prior's secondary pitches might even look conservative in a couple years. That's a statement to how advanced he was coming out of college, though it doesn't hold completely true today because he doesn't need to use his solid-average (55) changeup very often.
Beckett, however, has developed a plus-plus changeup (and flashes a devastating 80 changeup) far exceeding the projections for that pitch. "There are times when it's his best pitch; he just doesn't throw it enough," an NL scout said.
He can touch 99-100 mph and pitches in the 93-98 neighborhood. His curveball is a true 12-to-6 power breaker with put-away capability. His present command and control are just average to a tick above, though.
"Beckett has always thrown strikes," the NL scout said. "He's pretty sound mechanically. He threw strikes in the minors and has in the majors. He'll have an occasional bout of wildness because of overthrowing, but that's just inexperience. He just needs to trust his fastball more. Sometimes he tries to throw instead of pitch."
Beckett's three-pitch arsenal might be the best pure stuff in baseball, but it's Prior's command, control and delivery that have given him a slight edge for some in this ongoing debate. "That's the difference," the NL scout said. "Prior has 80 pitchability, where Beckett is probably a 55."
And it's not like Prior's stuff is too shabby, either. He pumps 92-96 mph gas with precise location, up, down, in and out. His breaking pitch is a plus, hard biting curveball with three-quarter break in the strike zone. If his pitches are a hair below Beckett, Prior gets the edge in intangibles.
"Prior is bigger, stronger and more durable," an NL scouting director said. "He has a picture perfect delivery. Out of every player I've ever scouted, he has the best command of a 70 fastball I've ever seen. Usually when you see a 70 fastball, the command is around 50. And his makeup seems to be tremendous."
Though it would be nitpicking, if you had to find some negatives you could point to Prior's heavy workload in his early 20s. For Beckett, he's less polished and advanced than Prior--a factor that could actually work in his favor. "There is no projection to Prior, that's why he got so good, so quick. The key will be how long he can maintain it," the scouting director said. "Beckett is just growing into himself. You could look back in about 15 years and say Beckett was the guy, but if I had to choose today and I'm drafting first I'd take Prior."
Showdown verdict
After conferring with several scouts, who decided Prior would be their choice (though we had to twist their arm to pick one) I'm happy to pick second in that draft, and even if I held the first pick, I'm going against the consensus and sticking with Beckett. Hearing comments like the following make me question my selection, but I'm not wavering: "The pitcher he reminds me of most is (Greg) Maddux, because he can pitch with his fastball," the NL scout said. "He can beat you with just his fastball because of his command."
Prior is certainly the more polished pitcher right now, but I believe Beckett can be better with a few more years of experience. I'm taking a slight risk, betting on Beckett's projection. "For me, Prior is a command pitcher with power stuff, while Beckett is power first, command second and he has a chance to be more dominating," the NL scout said.
What the scouts said in March, 2002:
• "It's not just Beckett's fastball. It's his command and his curveball and his offspeed stuff. It might be the best curveball in the game right now. It's like Bert Blyleven's, and it just comes natural for him. He's really learned how to pitch at a young age. He pounds you inside. He can pitch hard and he can pitch soft. He has an amazing feel for the mound. God, he's unlimited. He's got the mental toughness, too."
• "You might say Beckett only because he's done it at the major league level. But the other guy is the best pitcher I've ever scouted in my life. They're both No. 1 starters. They're both durable as hell. They're both 250-inning guys. They're both going to win 20 games. As far as command of more pitches, it's Prior. Pure stuff, I'd probably give the edge to Prior. Beckett's curveball is a snapdragon, but he doesn't command it as well as Prior. Both have 80 fastballs on our scale, and Prior has better command. His curveball is a strikeout pitch and his changeup is an out pitch. He has three out pitches. Prior probably does it a little easier, but Beckett has done it in the league on TV."
• "If Beckett has command of his changeup, I'd give him the odds. I've always seen Prior fight his changeup a bit against college hitters. His fastball, deception, curveball and command were so good, he didn't need to throw it. But you don't come to the big leagues and perform without a changeup. I've seen him fight it in the bullpen and during games. That's the only negative I could give you on him. Beckett just has outstanding stuff. He throws hard, he locates, he's got a hammer and he has a feel for three pitches."
• "I'd have to take Prior. I never thought I'd have to take Beckett second in anything. I think Prior still has to work the changeup into his mix. There are some things we don't know about him yet, while Beckett has answered about everything. He got himself healthy. But Prior is just so dominant. He's about as dominant as I've ever seen a guy in college. There will be a bump or two along the way, but he has outstanding makeup. He knows what he wants and how to go get it. Beckett has the third pitch right now, but Prior's two pitches might be a tick better. There's no reason to believe he won't throw a good changeup someday. His command is a little bit better, but Josh's has come on too."
• "Prior's stuff is very good but Beckett can be dominant. He's just got better pure stuff. It's one thing to do it against UCLA, but the other guy has shown it in the big leagues."
• "I almost always go to the guy who's done it on the professional level until I've seen the other guy in a professional atmosphere pitching against wood bats. Stuff-wise, they're really close. If you didn't worry about who they've done it against, that would be a fun argument. Just going on pure ceiling, Prior might be ahead a little bit. He might be an instant success."
• "I'd probably take Beckett. You're talking about the two best pitchers in the last six or seven years."