Did you know?
Of Terrell Owens' "best ever" 16 touchdowns last season, 14 came against sub-.500 teams.
Reason #1 why Owens is overrated:
70% of Owens' receptions are caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage
Owens caught 93 passes, 65 of which were caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (70%). Think about that -- 7 out of every 10 balls he caught was within 10 yards downfield. Pathetic. J.J. Stokes was slightly better, catching "only" 67% within 10 yards downfield. Tai Streets, the Niners' supposed "deep threat", caught 79% under 10 yards downfield. Is there any wonder why we refer to the 49ers as being a cheesy 2-yard pass offense?
In relating this to the discussion of the level of Owens' talent, in case you don't get it, the shorter the pass, the less risk, and the easier it is to complete. So when you consider the talent of Owens as a wide receiver, you have to consider the length of his attempts because -- bottom line -- if he's catching a bunch of short passes, he's not really proving anything except that he's good at catching a lot of easy passes.
Owens, of course, is among the pack of receivers catching the most easy passes, so how do we differentiate between their talent level? Well, we found that according to Stats, Inc., the 49ers attempted 155 passes to Owens and completed 93 (60%). This is just about what you would expect from your typical NFL receiver who catches 70% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage -- his actual deviation from his expected success rate is 1.8%.
Reason #2: Owens drops more passes than almost every other receiver
Not only does Owens fail catch more passes than expected, but he also drops more balls than expected. 16.1% of Owens' incompletions were because he dropped the ball (again, drops according to Stats, Inc.). Of the 67 receivers we examined, only 12 had a worse drop rate. And he's supposed to be "elite"?
Reason #3 why Owens is overrated: 88% of his touchdowns were against teams with losing records
Of course, the Whiner fans and media are screaming by now that what makes Owens truly special is how dangerous and exciting he supposedly is with the ball. Well, given that all his "danger and excitement" didn't translate into leading the league in yards per catch, they then point to his NFL-leading 16 TD catches. While the 49er fans and media drool over Owens' gaudy TD total, again, the behind-the-scenes data clears the air on Owens' TDs:
TDs against teams under .500 (10 games): 14
TDs against teams .500 or better (6 games): 2
Can you guess how many TDs Owens had in their one playoff game? Zero, of course, because Green Bay was a good team, silly. Fact is, most of Owens' TDs were the result of broken down, bad coverage, or bad tackling -- all courtesy of the bad teams that always seem to populate the Niners' schedule.
Just in case this, on its own merits, doesn't convince the Whiner fans, let's compare Owens' TD breakdown to the second leading TD scorer, Marvin Harrison:
TDs against teams under .500 (4 games): 4
TDs against teams .500 or better (12 games): 11
And how do Rod Smith's 11 TDs break down?
TDs against teams under .500 (8 games): 5
TDs against teams .500 or better (8 games): 6
We could go on, but the point should be exceedingly clear. Not everyone pads their stats against crappy teams. Some receivers, notably the #2 and #3 ranked behind Owens on the TD list last year, performed just as well or even stepped it up against the better teams.
Being "dangerous with the ball" only against bad teams doesn't prove anything, and it certainly is no basis for arguing a receiver is the most talented or exciting in the league. A receiver who is being called "the best in the NFL" should perform consistently no matter what the competition. Owens does not. He virtually disappears against the better teams or even outright chokes (see: his costly drop against the Rams at home last year). Once again, another piece added to the conclusion that Owens is overrated.
Of Terrell Owens' "best ever" 16 touchdowns last season, 14 came against sub-.500 teams.
Reason #1 why Owens is overrated:
70% of Owens' receptions are caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage
Owens caught 93 passes, 65 of which were caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (70%). Think about that -- 7 out of every 10 balls he caught was within 10 yards downfield. Pathetic. J.J. Stokes was slightly better, catching "only" 67% within 10 yards downfield. Tai Streets, the Niners' supposed "deep threat", caught 79% under 10 yards downfield. Is there any wonder why we refer to the 49ers as being a cheesy 2-yard pass offense?
In relating this to the discussion of the level of Owens' talent, in case you don't get it, the shorter the pass, the less risk, and the easier it is to complete. So when you consider the talent of Owens as a wide receiver, you have to consider the length of his attempts because -- bottom line -- if he's catching a bunch of short passes, he's not really proving anything except that he's good at catching a lot of easy passes.
Owens, of course, is among the pack of receivers catching the most easy passes, so how do we differentiate between their talent level? Well, we found that according to Stats, Inc., the 49ers attempted 155 passes to Owens and completed 93 (60%). This is just about what you would expect from your typical NFL receiver who catches 70% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage -- his actual deviation from his expected success rate is 1.8%.
Reason #2: Owens drops more passes than almost every other receiver
Not only does Owens fail catch more passes than expected, but he also drops more balls than expected. 16.1% of Owens' incompletions were because he dropped the ball (again, drops according to Stats, Inc.). Of the 67 receivers we examined, only 12 had a worse drop rate. And he's supposed to be "elite"?
Reason #3 why Owens is overrated: 88% of his touchdowns were against teams with losing records
Of course, the Whiner fans and media are screaming by now that what makes Owens truly special is how dangerous and exciting he supposedly is with the ball. Well, given that all his "danger and excitement" didn't translate into leading the league in yards per catch, they then point to his NFL-leading 16 TD catches. While the 49er fans and media drool over Owens' gaudy TD total, again, the behind-the-scenes data clears the air on Owens' TDs:
TDs against teams under .500 (10 games): 14
TDs against teams .500 or better (6 games): 2
Can you guess how many TDs Owens had in their one playoff game? Zero, of course, because Green Bay was a good team, silly. Fact is, most of Owens' TDs were the result of broken down, bad coverage, or bad tackling -- all courtesy of the bad teams that always seem to populate the Niners' schedule.
Just in case this, on its own merits, doesn't convince the Whiner fans, let's compare Owens' TD breakdown to the second leading TD scorer, Marvin Harrison:
TDs against teams under .500 (4 games): 4
TDs against teams .500 or better (12 games): 11
And how do Rod Smith's 11 TDs break down?
TDs against teams under .500 (8 games): 5
TDs against teams .500 or better (8 games): 6
We could go on, but the point should be exceedingly clear. Not everyone pads their stats against crappy teams. Some receivers, notably the #2 and #3 ranked behind Owens on the TD list last year, performed just as well or even stepped it up against the better teams.
Being "dangerous with the ball" only against bad teams doesn't prove anything, and it certainly is no basis for arguing a receiver is the most talented or exciting in the league. A receiver who is being called "the best in the NFL" should perform consistently no matter what the competition. Owens does not. He virtually disappears against the better teams or even outright chokes (see: his costly drop against the Rams at home last year). Once again, another piece added to the conclusion that Owens is overrated.
