Packers no match for 49ers, Rattay
Packers no match for 49ers, Rattay
By Skip Bayless, Mercury News
The first real test for Tim Rattay and the reborn 49ers won't come for another week. The Ravens have the NFL's hottest defense and the kind of punishing runner, 240-pound Jamal Lewis, who gives the undersized 49ers headaches. That game is in Baltimore.
This Sunday, the 49ers play the easiest of their four road games in five weeks. This is the one they should win. Say cheese.
"Say what?" you sputter. "This is Green Bay at Lambeau Field."
No, it's what you remember of the Packers at what used to be Lambeau. While remodeling the place, they inadvertently tore down the Lombardi Mystique. Last January the Packers lost their first playoff game ever at the House that Vince Built. This season they've lost three of five on their frozen tundra, which has been no more threatening than frozen yogurt.
Brett Favre's underpublicized fade has made him pro football's most overhyped player. He hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards in more than a year. He has been under 200 yards six times this season. Yet since Oct. 19, he has played with a cracked right thumb while throwing to three ordinary receivers who, combined, have only two more catches than St. Louis' Torry Holt.
Favre is no longer capable of being a one-man gang. That's partly because that Gang Green defense might as well have gangrene, falling to 25th overall and 27th against the pass. With Sunday's temperature predicted to fall no further than the mid-40s, Rattay should look more like the Great Brett Favre than Favre will.
The 49ers are clearly the better of these two 5-5 teams. I still say Jeff Garcia, when reasonably healthy, is clearly the better of the first two 49ers quarterbacks. But I fully acknowledge that this team has caught fire around Rattay.
From the moment Cedrick Wilson returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against the Rams, the 49ers have played as if good things will happen with lucky No. 13 at quarterback. They're again attacking with the radioactivity of a college team during rivalry week. So what I think is irrelevant. The team's most dangerous weapons, Terrell Owens and Kevan Barlow, are responding as if Rattay is a 26-year-old Joe Montana.
The Packers, meanwhile, have won two road games in the past three weeks that were as impressive as they were misleading. They caught Minnesota's defense just as it was beginning to melt like light snow and outscored the Vikings 30-27. They caught Tampa Bay just as it hit dissension-racked bottom and escaped 20-13 despite a career-low 92 passing yards from Favre.
He aggravated his thumb when he banged it on a helmet with 5:59 left in the game. The cracked bone is beneath the thumbnail, so he can no longer get a grip on the ball or the fourth quarter at Lambeau. He has lost velocity and accuracy on top of star receivers. As vulnerable as the 49ers' secondary can be, it shouldn't have much trouble matching up with Robert Ferguson, Donald Driver and Juvan Walker.
Favre also has lost his gunslinger's edge at home. Atlanta's Michael Vick outplayed him in last season's playoff loss and Minnesota's Daunte Culpepper outplayed him in this season's opener. The Packers let Kansas City and Philadelphia off the hook in ways previously unimaginable during the Favre Era in the House of Cheese.
The only reason the Packers haven't fallen from the playoff picture is the load being carried by the running game. They lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (166.5) and per carry (5.4). The new "Favre" is running back Ahman Green, who operates with slashing savvy behind one of the NFL's most skilled and sly lines.
But the Packers, whose line averages only 313 pounds, don't have the massive maulers who can overpower the 49ers. And the 49ers have the speed to contain Green, who at 217 pounds relies a little more on speed than power. Najeh Davenport, who goes 245, could cause problems rumbling behind triple-tight-end lines. But the 49ers should be able to control what Green Bay's offense does best and exploit what its defense does worst.
You get the feeling the 49ers smell NFC West blood. Seattle (7-3) has to play Sunday at Baltimore. St. Louis (7-3) has barely survived the past two weeks because opponents are exploiting a weakness the 49ers exposed. Quarterback Marc Bulger, who is taller and stronger-armed than Rattay, hasn't shown much courage under blitz fire. He won't sacrifice his body to get off a throw, the way Kurt Warner once did. Rough him up and he rattles.
Rattay's nerve and resilience haven't been tested and probably won't be until Baltimore. As long as the 49ers continue protecting him -- and he again protects the ball -- they should leave Lambeau with what General Manager Terry Donahue said will "definitely" be a quarterback controversy.
On his KNBR show Thursday, Donahue said Coach Dennis Erickson will have to "reassess" if Rattay wins a third consecutive start. Donahue said the call would be strictly Erickson's -- and Erickson has repeatedly said the job is Garcia's when his ankle heals. But here's betting Erickson is strongly influenced by Donahue to reassess.
I still say Garcia would give the 49ers a better chance in Baltimore. And in Cincinnati, where the Bengals' coming-of-age momentum and power running game could be too much. And in Philadelphia, where the find-a-way Eagles could be too physically and mentally tough.
But Rattay's 49ers shouldn't have much trouble in what used to be Lambeau.