Energy Shortages Worldwide
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http://www.energybulletin.net/42030.html
The peak oil crisis: Load shedding
by Tom Whipple
Largely unnoticed in America are the increasingly frequent electricity shortages developing around the world.
Many of these are caused by shifting weather patterns that are leaving hydro-electric dams with insufficient water to produce at full capacity. While some aspects of global climate change are temporary, many, such as the melting of glaciers, seem destined to last for decades, or perhaps centuries, thereby depriving the world of some of the best sources of cheap, renewable electric energy.
Thermal power production across the globe is struggling to cope with high prices and shortages of coal, fuel oil and diesel. Several poorer countries have shut down the bulk of their generation capacity as they are no longer able to pay the fuel bills to keep going.
Then there is the inexorable growth of the world’s population –- 77 million more of us each year. While not all the new born get instant access to the wondrous benefits of electric power, enough do to keep demand rising and rising. Of yet more significance is the rapid economic growth of China, the subcontinent, oil exporting states and lots of other places. With new-found wealth comes the demand for more and more electricity for lights, appliances, heating, cooling and a myriad of power-consuming devices that we in America and the other OECD countries adopted decades ago. There simply is not enough investment in new plants and distribution networks to keep up with surging demand.
A few places in the world have active insurgencies. Iraq, Afghanistan and Nigeria immediately come to mind, for insurgents just love to blow up their local electric power infrastructure. There are very few things an insurgent can do that will get everybody mad at the government quicker than shutting off the power.
Energy shortages are now so frequent across the world there is a new web site, www.energyshortage.org, devoted to keeping track of them all. There are currently 96 different places in the world that have reported some form of energy shortages in recent months. These range from large areas of China, through the sub continent to small South Pacific islands such as Saipan and the Marianas that have not been heard from much since World War II.
Nearly every government in the world has announced plans for more electricity production. Most would like nuclear power plants that would, in theory, free them from the vagaries of hydro power and the steadily increasing prices of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, most of these plans have no foundation in reality, for unless the country is a wealthy one, the rapidly increasing prices of major projects such as oil refineries and power plants, particularly of the nuclear variety, are going to become prohibitively costly very soon. As for nuclear power stations, it is almost certain those few countries that have the capability to design and build them are going to be preoccupied for decades with building them for their domestic market or the ultra-rich oil exporters.
In addition to the many hardships that billions of people around the world are going to be facing in the next few years as load shedding (rolling blackouts) of lengthening duration become more common, are the numerous repercussions of this phenomenon in the developed counties where the lights are likely to stay on for a while longer.
Political instability is going to be at the head of the problem list. Despite the $5 billion the U.S. has spent to improve Iraq’s electric supply in recent years, a combination of increasing demand, insurgent attacks and regional hoarding has reduced the electric supply in Baghdad to a few hours a day. In Pakistan, where power shortages have already shut down 70 percent of the textile factories, recent reporting suggests the availability of electric power will continue to decline.
For many decades now, hundreds of millions of people have been moving from rural areas into megacities where tens of millions have collected in hopes of a better life. Keeping such massive collections of humanity functioning takes at last a modicum of electricity for the logistics of daily life. Megacities will soon be sorely tested.
A recent study points out that shortages of electricity are “dramatically” curbing world metal production. Aluminum, which requires massive amounts of electricity to produce, is at the top of the list with the likelihood that world production will be cut by 800,000 tons this year. South Africa, which produces much of the world’s precious metal supply, is facing many years of power shortages and has already lost considerable production. There is more than speculation behind the recent run-up in commodity prices.
Another phenomenon that should concern us here in the richer countries is the rush to backup power as more and more of the world’s power grids are subjected to “rolling blackouts.” Even the poorest countries now have “modern sectors” of varying sizes where administrative and financial work is carried out in office buildings with computers. For these organizations, reliable electricity is essential. Small, produce-it-yourself electricity generators are appearing around the world by the millions -- wherever they can be afforded.
In China and other better-off countries, no self-respecting factory would be without the capability of generating its own electricity should there be blackouts on the national grids. In some parts of the world, the din of these machines has become part of the background of life.
Besides the increasing noise and air pollution, the downside is that many of these are diesel powered, and there is a developing global shortage of diesel fuel. Generation of electric power with small internal combustion engines is expensive and highly inefficient. Until the fuel becomes too expensive or is no longer available, small generators are going to become increasing prevalent and will add significant new pressures on the world’s supply of liquid fuels.
by Tom Whipple
Largely unnoticed in America are the increasingly frequent electricity shortages developing around the world.
Many of these are caused by shifting weather patterns that are leaving hydro-electric dams with insufficient water to produce at full capacity. While some aspects of global climate change are temporary, many, such as the melting of glaciers, seem destined to last for decades, or perhaps centuries, thereby depriving the world of some of the best sources of cheap, renewable electric energy.
Thermal power production across the globe is struggling to cope with high prices and shortages of coal, fuel oil and diesel. Several poorer countries have shut down the bulk of their generation capacity as they are no longer able to pay the fuel bills to keep going.
Then there is the inexorable growth of the world’s population –- 77 million more of us each year. While not all the new born get instant access to the wondrous benefits of electric power, enough do to keep demand rising and rising. Of yet more significance is the rapid economic growth of China, the subcontinent, oil exporting states and lots of other places. With new-found wealth comes the demand for more and more electricity for lights, appliances, heating, cooling and a myriad of power-consuming devices that we in America and the other OECD countries adopted decades ago. There simply is not enough investment in new plants and distribution networks to keep up with surging demand.
A few places in the world have active insurgencies. Iraq, Afghanistan and Nigeria immediately come to mind, for insurgents just love to blow up their local electric power infrastructure. There are very few things an insurgent can do that will get everybody mad at the government quicker than shutting off the power.
Energy shortages are now so frequent across the world there is a new web site, www.energyshortage.org, devoted to keeping track of them all. There are currently 96 different places in the world that have reported some form of energy shortages in recent months. These range from large areas of China, through the sub continent to small South Pacific islands such as Saipan and the Marianas that have not been heard from much since World War II.
Nearly every government in the world has announced plans for more electricity production. Most would like nuclear power plants that would, in theory, free them from the vagaries of hydro power and the steadily increasing prices of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, most of these plans have no foundation in reality, for unless the country is a wealthy one, the rapidly increasing prices of major projects such as oil refineries and power plants, particularly of the nuclear variety, are going to become prohibitively costly very soon. As for nuclear power stations, it is almost certain those few countries that have the capability to design and build them are going to be preoccupied for decades with building them for their domestic market or the ultra-rich oil exporters.
In addition to the many hardships that billions of people around the world are going to be facing in the next few years as load shedding (rolling blackouts) of lengthening duration become more common, are the numerous repercussions of this phenomenon in the developed counties where the lights are likely to stay on for a while longer.
Political instability is going to be at the head of the problem list. Despite the $5 billion the U.S. has spent to improve Iraq’s electric supply in recent years, a combination of increasing demand, insurgent attacks and regional hoarding has reduced the electric supply in Baghdad to a few hours a day. In Pakistan, where power shortages have already shut down 70 percent of the textile factories, recent reporting suggests the availability of electric power will continue to decline.
For many decades now, hundreds of millions of people have been moving from rural areas into megacities where tens of millions have collected in hopes of a better life. Keeping such massive collections of humanity functioning takes at last a modicum of electricity for the logistics of daily life. Megacities will soon be sorely tested.
A recent study points out that shortages of electricity are “dramatically” curbing world metal production. Aluminum, which requires massive amounts of electricity to produce, is at the top of the list with the likelihood that world production will be cut by 800,000 tons this year. South Africa, which produces much of the world’s precious metal supply, is facing many years of power shortages and has already lost considerable production. There is more than speculation behind the recent run-up in commodity prices.
Another phenomenon that should concern us here in the richer countries is the rush to backup power as more and more of the world’s power grids are subjected to “rolling blackouts.” Even the poorest countries now have “modern sectors” of varying sizes where administrative and financial work is carried out in office buildings with computers. For these organizations, reliable electricity is essential. Small, produce-it-yourself electricity generators are appearing around the world by the millions -- wherever they can be afforded.
In China and other better-off countries, no self-respecting factory would be without the capability of generating its own electricity should there be blackouts on the national grids. In some parts of the world, the din of these machines has become part of the background of life.
Besides the increasing noise and air pollution, the downside is that many of these are diesel powered, and there is a developing global shortage of diesel fuel. Generation of electric power with small internal combustion engines is expensive and highly inefficient. Until the fuel becomes too expensive or is no longer available, small generators are going to become increasing prevalent and will add significant new pressures on the world’s supply of liquid fuels.
China diesel rationed, despite government pledges
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSPEK34710120080325
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSPEK34710120080325
By Rujun Shen and Jim Bai
SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Gas stations on China's booming east coast were rationing diesel, pump attendants said on Tuesday, despite Beijing's insistence that its refiners will ensure supplies at unprofitable state-set prices.
"The line outside our station is at least one kilometer long," said one station manager in coastal Fujian province, who declined to be named because fuel supplies are a sensitive issue.
Other stations said they had sold out of the day's supply by noon and did not know if a delivery would arrive on Wednesday.
Down the coast in Guangzhou province, China's manufacturing hub, diesel was rationed to 300 yuan ($42.56) for cash sales -- enough to fill up a family car but just a small portion of a truck tank -- and there were queues of up to 20 minutes.
The government said late on Monday that fuel supplies were adequate and that reports of rationing reflected only sporadic problems caused by demand from farmers planting their spring crops and the lingering impact of unusually severe winter weather.
"Supply tightness, even queues and rationing, in southern China was partly due to rising needs in the spring season as well as more demand after the harsh winter weather," the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement.
Hoarding in expectation of price rises may have exacerbated shortages, but overall supplies were good as domestic oil product stocks had risen 28 percent from the start of the year, and the country's oil majors would ensure supplies, the commission added.
But as rationing and queues spread inland and to the country's financial centre, Shanghai, there were echoes of last October's supply crisis, China's worst in four years.
Last year, in the face of large refining losses, majors PetroChina (PTR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sinopec (SNP.N: Quote, Profile, Research)(0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) curbed runs and cut supplies to the market, creating shortages across the nation that forced the government to increase state-set fuel prices.
With international crude prices climbing briefly above $110 a barrel this month, refiners were again selling at tens of dollars below the level that would allow them to break even on processing.
But Beijing is reluctant to raise fuel prices because inflation is at its highest in more than a decade, and earlier this month promised there would be no increases in the short-term.
SHANGHAI SHORTAGES
In Shanghai more than half of 15 PetroChina or Sinopec branded stations contacted by Reuters, in both the city centre and suburbs, said they were rationing sales or had run out of diesel entirely and were not expecting new deliveries.
"Diesel shipments are spotty. Now we are out and don't know when the next one will arrive," said one downtown attendant.
Some retailers from inland Anhui province said they hadn't recovered from the supply crisis in 2007, while others were once again rationing or sold out of diesel.
"We haven't sold diesel since last year's shortage," said a staffer at an independent station in the provincial capital Hefei.
Even in the capital, which the oil majors usually try to shield from shortages because it is the seat of government power, pumps of at least two PetroChina stations had run dry by mid-afternoon.
"Our diesel stocks ran out in the afternoon after some 20 large trucks rushed in for it," an attendant said at one. "We only have some reserved for prepaid customers."
In neighboring Hebei province there were shortages too.
"Due to tight resources, we allow only 200 yuan each fill for nearly two weeks," said an attendant at a Sinopec station near the provincial capital Shijiazhuang.
In central Henan province, drivers faced even lower quotas, with some Sinopec stations in the capital Zhengzhou allowing only 100 yuan for each fill paid in cash.
(Writing by Emma Graham-Harrison; Editing by Ken Wills)
($1=7.048 Yuan)
SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Gas stations on China's booming east coast were rationing diesel, pump attendants said on Tuesday, despite Beijing's insistence that its refiners will ensure supplies at unprofitable state-set prices.
"The line outside our station is at least one kilometer long," said one station manager in coastal Fujian province, who declined to be named because fuel supplies are a sensitive issue.
Other stations said they had sold out of the day's supply by noon and did not know if a delivery would arrive on Wednesday.
Down the coast in Guangzhou province, China's manufacturing hub, diesel was rationed to 300 yuan ($42.56) for cash sales -- enough to fill up a family car but just a small portion of a truck tank -- and there were queues of up to 20 minutes.
The government said late on Monday that fuel supplies were adequate and that reports of rationing reflected only sporadic problems caused by demand from farmers planting their spring crops and the lingering impact of unusually severe winter weather.
"Supply tightness, even queues and rationing, in southern China was partly due to rising needs in the spring season as well as more demand after the harsh winter weather," the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement.
Hoarding in expectation of price rises may have exacerbated shortages, but overall supplies were good as domestic oil product stocks had risen 28 percent from the start of the year, and the country's oil majors would ensure supplies, the commission added.
But as rationing and queues spread inland and to the country's financial centre, Shanghai, there were echoes of last October's supply crisis, China's worst in four years.
Last year, in the face of large refining losses, majors PetroChina (PTR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sinopec (SNP.N: Quote, Profile, Research)(0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) curbed runs and cut supplies to the market, creating shortages across the nation that forced the government to increase state-set fuel prices.
With international crude prices climbing briefly above $110 a barrel this month, refiners were again selling at tens of dollars below the level that would allow them to break even on processing.
But Beijing is reluctant to raise fuel prices because inflation is at its highest in more than a decade, and earlier this month promised there would be no increases in the short-term.
SHANGHAI SHORTAGES
In Shanghai more than half of 15 PetroChina or Sinopec branded stations contacted by Reuters, in both the city centre and suburbs, said they were rationing sales or had run out of diesel entirely and were not expecting new deliveries.
"Diesel shipments are spotty. Now we are out and don't know when the next one will arrive," said one downtown attendant.
Some retailers from inland Anhui province said they hadn't recovered from the supply crisis in 2007, while others were once again rationing or sold out of diesel.
"We haven't sold diesel since last year's shortage," said a staffer at an independent station in the provincial capital Hefei.
Even in the capital, which the oil majors usually try to shield from shortages because it is the seat of government power, pumps of at least two PetroChina stations had run dry by mid-afternoon.
"Our diesel stocks ran out in the afternoon after some 20 large trucks rushed in for it," an attendant said at one. "We only have some reserved for prepaid customers."
In neighboring Hebei province there were shortages too.
"Due to tight resources, we allow only 200 yuan each fill for nearly two weeks," said an attendant at a Sinopec station near the provincial capital Shijiazhuang.
In central Henan province, drivers faced even lower quotas, with some Sinopec stations in the capital Zhengzhou allowing only 100 yuan for each fill paid in cash.
(Writing by Emma Graham-Harrison; Editing by Ken Wills)
($1=7.048 Yuan)
Dubai power shortage continues to deepen, say reports
http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=18920&t=1&c=33&cg=4
http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=18920&t=1&c=33&cg=4
UAE. Dubai's decision to open its power industry to foreign investors, ending a 50-year monopoly, is a sign of the Emirate's growing panic that the US$300 billion construction boom is outpacing supplies of water and electricity.
Dubai's power consumption will quadruple to 21,000 megawatts, equivalent to half of Florida's, over the next 12 years if growth doesn't slow sharply.
Burj Dubai, the world's tallest skyscraper, being built off Dubai's main Sheikh Zayed highway, will gobble up 150 megawatts of power, equivalent to about 10% of the power produced by a new-generation nuclear reactor.
A report by Zawya Dow Jones points out that poor energy planning means that in a region that controls 60% of the world's oil and 40% of known natural gas stocks Dubai finds itself begging its neighbours for energy.
Dubai has known for many years that its finite oil and gas resources weren't sufficient to meet the surge in demand for electricity but has done little to address the issue. Now, in the absence of an expected Iranian gas pipeline and other issues, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority is running out of cheap gas to fire its gigantic power and sea-water desalination plants.
Other Gulf producers have largely allocated reserves for their own consumption or other customers. Dubai depends on supplies of more expensive and dirtier diesel oil from neighbouring Abu Dhabi to keep the lights turned on.
Such is the desperation of planners that the construction of costly nuclear power plants is now high up the agenda of possible solutions to Dubai's electricity woes. But they wouldn't come into service for at least a decade.
Given the dependence of the US on Middle East oil and gas to fuel its economy, it's ironic that another one of Dubai's projects envisages private developers importing hydrogen produced from coal in the US to fire a new power and water plant, slated to start operations in 2011.
Property developers now worry that multi-billion-dollar real estate projects won't be allocated power and water by DEWA and are looking at alternative suppliers. DEWA denies there will be a shortfall but doubts remain.
Inviting private investors to help build and run new plants is at least a step in the right direction. Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman are reaping the benefits of private power and water projects. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and most regulated, is going down the same route.
Even so, it may well be that it's not political tensions in the Gulf, the threat of terrorism or a real-estate crash that threaten Dubai's economic ambitions, but rather the simple failure to provide enough affordable power and water.
Dubai's power consumption will quadruple to 21,000 megawatts, equivalent to half of Florida's, over the next 12 years if growth doesn't slow sharply.
Burj Dubai, the world's tallest skyscraper, being built off Dubai's main Sheikh Zayed highway, will gobble up 150 megawatts of power, equivalent to about 10% of the power produced by a new-generation nuclear reactor.
A report by Zawya Dow Jones points out that poor energy planning means that in a region that controls 60% of the world's oil and 40% of known natural gas stocks Dubai finds itself begging its neighbours for energy.
Dubai has known for many years that its finite oil and gas resources weren't sufficient to meet the surge in demand for electricity but has done little to address the issue. Now, in the absence of an expected Iranian gas pipeline and other issues, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority is running out of cheap gas to fire its gigantic power and sea-water desalination plants.
Other Gulf producers have largely allocated reserves for their own consumption or other customers. Dubai depends on supplies of more expensive and dirtier diesel oil from neighbouring Abu Dhabi to keep the lights turned on.
Such is the desperation of planners that the construction of costly nuclear power plants is now high up the agenda of possible solutions to Dubai's electricity woes. But they wouldn't come into service for at least a decade.
Given the dependence of the US on Middle East oil and gas to fuel its economy, it's ironic that another one of Dubai's projects envisages private developers importing hydrogen produced from coal in the US to fire a new power and water plant, slated to start operations in 2011.
Property developers now worry that multi-billion-dollar real estate projects won't be allocated power and water by DEWA and are looking at alternative suppliers. DEWA denies there will be a shortfall but doubts remain.
Inviting private investors to help build and run new plants is at least a step in the right direction. Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman are reaping the benefits of private power and water projects. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and most regulated, is going down the same route.
Even so, it may well be that it's not political tensions in the Gulf, the threat of terrorism or a real-estate crash that threaten Dubai's economic ambitions, but rather the simple failure to provide enough affordable power and water.