Twitter IPO / Who Buyin?

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May 7, 2013
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> Bought 1000 shares of WLL at 10.60 this morning.
> Arabs agree to cut oil supply.
> Sold 1000 shares of WLL at 11.60 30 minutes later.
> Pocket a quick grand.
> Carry on with my day like nothing happend.
> Sup...Fogell.

hell ya i c u feelin like Mac Dre (no malki)

"......ridin sidin whippin dippin........."

 
May 7, 2013
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Guide to analyst recommendations

The following is a guide to the stock-research ratings systems used by the brokerage firms covered by MarketWatch.

Because ratings terms vary from firm to firm, the guide is designed to help investors understand the meaning behind each rating (where available) and to allow them to make comparisons between each firm's recommendation. Some brokerages turned down MarketWatch's requests for their rating descriptions.

A.G. Edwards

Buy
A total return is anticipated in excess of the market's long-term historic annual rate (approximately 10%). Total return expectations should be higher for stocks that possess greater risk.
Hold
Hold the shares with neither a materially positive total return nor a materially negative total return anticipated.
Sell
Stock should be sold as materially negative total return is anticipated.

BB&T Capital Markets

Strong Buy
Estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 25 percent.
Long-Term Buy
Estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 10 percent and less than 25 percent.
Hold
Estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 0 percent and less than 10 percent.
Underweight
Estimated total return potential less than 0 percent.

Bear Stearns

Outperform
Stock is projected to outperform the analyst's coverage universe over next 12 months.
Peer Perform
Stock is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry coverage universe over next 12 months.
Underperform
Stock is projected to underperform the analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12-months.

Sectors are also rated either Market Overweight, Market Weight and Market Underweight.

Credit Suisse First Boston

Outperform
Stock's total return is expected to exceed the industry average by at least 10-15 percent (or more depending on perceived risk) over next 12 months.
Neutral
Stock's toatal return is expected to be in line with the industry average (range of +/-10%) over next 12 months.
Underperform
Stock's total return is expected to underperform the industry average by 10-15 percent or more over next 12 months.

Industries are rated either overweight: Expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months; market weight: Expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months; or underweight: Expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.

Deutsche Bank Securities

Strong Buy
Firm's best picks, backed with high degree of confidence. Expects significant outperformance against the market and the time to act to buy the stock is now.
Buy
Stocks expected to outperform against the market by 10% or more over next 12 months.
Market Perform
Relates to local index and indicates expectation stock will broadly perform in line with market over a 12-month period and that share price is likely to trade within a range of +/-10%.
Underperform
Expects underperformance against the local market by 10% or more over next 12 months.


see rest of list here
 
May 7, 2013
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Hedge Funds
Billionaire Rosenstein Ditches Expedia (EXPE) for Rival Priceline (PCLN), Adds Twitter (TWTR), Unloads Microsoft (MSFT)


Activist investor Barry Rosenstein’s Jana Partners is a hedge fund with long and short exposure to the equity markets. The investment firm follows event-driven investment strategy. It was formed in 2001 and uses fundamental analysis for picking undervalued stocks. In a few cases, the firm has taken activist stance as well. Rosenstein sold 20% of the fund to Neuberger Berman in 2015, valuing the fund at $2 billion. Jana Partners’ performance after the sale isn’t very encouraging. The fund lost 5.4% in 2015 and was down 4.1% during the first 7 months of this year. Fortunately, the fund managed to claw back from this hole and went into black in November as it returned 2.2% on the heels of Trump’s election victory. Jana Partners is up 1.4% for the year.

Consumer Staples stocks form the biggest chunk of its holdings. Information Technology stocks also account for nearly one-fifth of its portfolio. During the September quarter, the fund initiated positions in Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:pCLN) and Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) while liquidating its positions in Expedia Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA).

The smart money sentiment is an important metric that can be used to assess the long-term profitability of a stock. While there are thousands of stocks trading daily on the market, taking a look at what hedge funds think about certain companies can narrow down the search significantly. At Insider Monkey, we track more than 700 hedge funds, whose 13F filings we analyze as part of our small-cap strategy. Our research has shown that imitating a portfolio that includes the 15 most popular small-cap stocks among hedge funds can outperform the market by as much as 95 basis points per month on average (see more details here).

Priceline Group Inc (NASDAQ:pCLN) stock gained 17% this year so far. The stock accounted for 2.72% of Jana’s portfolio. For the quarter ended on 30th September, 2016, the investment fund initiated its position in the stock by buying 105,409 shares. The fund’s holding amounted to $155 million. Of the hedge funds in our database, 98 funds currently hold $8.2 billion worth of Priceline Group shares in their portfolio at the end of the September quarter, which equals to 11.30% of the outstanding shares. Priceline reported strong results for its third quarter. The company’s earnings for the quarter stood at $30.94 per share, surpassing consensus estimate of $28.40 per share. Its revenue was reported at $3.6 billion, matching forecast of $3.617 billion.

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) stock declined 21% in this year so far. However, Jana Partners initiated its holding of the stock during the quarter ended on 30th September, 2016. The fund held $67 million worth of Twitter stock at the end of the quarter, forming 1.19% of its portfolio. Jana Partners had 2.94 million shares of the company in its portfolio at the end of the period. Among the funds we track, 47 funds held $1 billion worth of Twitter’s stock in aggregate at the end of September, having amassed 6.6% of its outstanding stock betting on the possibility that the tech company will be sold at a premium. The beleaguered company recently announced the closure of its popular video app Vine. The company is reportedly looking to sell the app. It is likely that the Twitter may receive less than what it paid for Vine nearly four years back. India is included in the top 10 biggest markets for Twitter.
 
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bought AUY after gap up this a.m. at 3.16 was looking for a ceiling of 3.50 over the next few days (never reached), just got stopped out at 3.10 = (

this one is on a downtrend pattern but still shows an upside to $3.50

been targeting HRL Fri, Mon, Tue, never reached my delta target buy prices, now on the up; may buy at market tomorrow open- still believe it can reach $38

no moves for me right now, playing very conservative, missing out on quite a few watches...
 
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Average Credit Card Debt in America: 2016 Facts & Figures

Our researchers found the median debt per American household to be $2,300, while the average debt stands at $5,700. Combined data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve allowed us to dive deeper into credit card debt in the United States, and look beyond the face value of those two figures. Below you'll find some of the most prominent trends that emerged from the available data.

American Credit Card Debt Statistics & Key Findings - Updated May 2016
Average American Household Debt: $5,700. Average for balance-carrying households: $16,048
Total Outstanding U.S. Consumer Debt: $3.4 trillion. Total revolving debt: $929 billion
38.1% of all households carry some sort of credit card debt.
Households with the lowest net worth (zero or negative) hold an average of $10,308 in credit card debt.
The Northeast and West Coast hold the highest average credit card debt – both averaging over $8,000.



Average Credit Card Debt in America
The mean credit card debt of U.S. households is approximately $5,700, according to most recent data from the Survey of Consumer Finances by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This information comes from data collected up through to the year 2013, and represents the most reliable measure of credit card indebtedness in the United States. The "mean amount of credit card debt" considers balances that Americans above the age of 18 have on average, throughout the year.

Another method for estimating average credit card debt is to look only at indebted households - excluding who pay their balances in full on a monthly basis. To obtain this figure, we looked at data reported by the Federal Reserve for Outstanding Revolving Debt - we then divided that number by the number of card-carrying households each year. As of March 2016, the average credit card debt for these households is $16,048.

During the course of our study on average credit card debt, we observed some significant differences among different demographics and regions. The most prominent differences exist among peoples of different race, age, gender, and state of residence. In the following sections we explore these differences to see how average credit card debt varies among the population.

Average Credit Card Debt by Region

Average credit card debt varied widely by state or region. According to data from the credit reporting agency TransUnion, the typical Alaska residents carried the most credit card debt – an average of $6,910 – this is 23% more than Colorado, which is the next state carrying the highest average credit card debt.

The average householder in Iowa holds just $3,885 in credit card debt, which is almost half as much as the rest of the nation. North and South Dakota, and Nebraska were among other states which came in with low average credit card debt per household – the three held an average of $4,182.

To see the average credit card debt throughout the nation, use the interactive map. Hover over a state in order to display its average. Light blue states have lower debt, while dark blue states have higher levels of credit card debt.

Average Credit Card Debt by Age

Credit card debt appears to peak for individuals who are between 45 and 54 years old - $9,096. Some of our surveys have shown that this group tends to be among the largest credit card spenders – likely due to the budgets they are operating with. Recent studies have shown this age cohort (commonly referred to as “Baby Boomers”) controls the largest portion of America’s disposable income.

Millennials and individuals over 74 years old held the least credit card debt. These two groups are also among the least likely to have a credit card, which can serve as a potential explanation behind the trend we are seeing here.

Average Credit Card Debt by Income

The greater the household income the higher the credit card debt. Individuals in the highest annual income percentile, 90th to 100th, had an average of $11,200 in credit card debt -- nearly four times as much as households making the least. However, as a percentage of income, those on the lower end of the specturm carry more debt.

Average Credit Card Debt by Gender

Male householders carried significantly more credit card debt then their female counterparts. The mean credit card debt held by men is $7,407, whereas women tend to hold 22% less – with an average of $5,245.



Various reports seem to indicate that women prefer the use of debit cards to credit cards. In our recent Survey of Credit Card Consumer Habits, we found that women were more likely to fall into the smaller spending categories, whereas more men tended to be big credit card spenders – 19% of men the men surveyed would spend $2,000+ per month, compared to just 8% of women.

Average Credit Card Debt by Race

Individuals who identified as white (with no Hispanic origin) carried an average of $7,942 in debt – the highest amount of any racial group. They were followed by Asians, with an average credit card debt of $7,660. Black householders carried the least debt, with an average of $6,172, which is 20% lower than the nationwide mean.



Total Credit Card Debt in the United States
Debt arising from credit card use represents less than half of the total average unsecured debt held by Americans. In 2011, the average total unsecured debt was $21,281, and credit cards accounted for just 36% of that figure. For a clearer picture of America's indebtedness, it is critical to look at total outstanding debts - arising from both credit cards and other sources.

Every month, the Federal Reserve releases statistics regarding total outstanding debts in America – these are referred as “revolving” and “non-revolving” credit. Non-revolving credit refers to loans individuals are paying off over time, while revolving credit refers to an ongoing line of credit extended to a consumer, which they pay off and continually receive. For example, a mortgage is an example of non-revolving credit, since an individual with one will be slowly paying down the debt. Revolving credit is predominantly comprised of credit cards, which users pay down each month, and are immediately given a new line of credit upon payment.

The most recent data indicates that, as of March 2016, the current outstanding revolving debt in the United States is $952 billion. The majority of these debts originate from depository institutions (e.g. banks) - $754.4 billion is owed due to credit extended by these companies. The remainder of the credit debt owed to finance companies and credit unions - $53.5 billion and $48.3 billion respectively.

Average credit card debt is closely tied to the total outstanding revolving debt. Over the years, the two have risen together, exhibiting strong correlation (0.6). Over the last decade, average credit card debt has grown at a faster pace – raising by 52% since the year 2000. In that time, outstanding revolving credit has grown with exactly half that rate – increasing 26%.



The above graph presents a single anomaly which occurred in 2005. During that time there was a severe drop in average credit card debt, despite total outstanding revolving debt continuing to rise. This outlier was likely due to the spike in bankruptcy filings in the United States around that time. A law went into effect at the end of 2005 which made it more difficult for individuals to declare bankruptcy. This resulted in a rush of filings before the law's deadline - over 2 million Americans had their debts forgiven that year due to these filings.

How Has Average Credit Card Debt In America Changed over The Years?
As discussed above, average credit card debt in America has been rising over the last decade. However, despite this, the average percentage of people holding credit card debt has been gradually decreasing. This tells us that the while average credit card debt is increasing, it’s not due to a greater number of individuals spending. Instead, in recent years, more people have been more heavily indebted.

In the year 2000, over half of the households in America had credit card debt. By contrast, in 2001, that figure fell to 38% - over 12 percentage points lower. Over this time, average credit card debt rose from $5,048 to $7,697. This means the average American today holds 52% more debt today than they did a decade ago.

Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Federal Reserve
2013 Survey of Consumer Finances

==============================

*NOTE:
Total Outstanding U.S. Consumer Debt: $3.4 trillion
Today’s Federal Debt is $19.9 trillion
Federal Debt per person is about $60,943
(The Federal Debt doesn’t include state and local debt, so-called “agency debt,” and it doesn’t include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare)

Last time I calculated total cumulative 50-state debt, it was $30+ trillion.

Anyone have a calculator? :dead:
 
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May 6, 2002
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moved from the bond market
That's what I read at first, but these are usually safe haven players. Now all of a suddent they are risk on?

Then I saw an article about average individuals holding a collective of hundreds of billions ready to pour it in. I find this a little hard to believe that people are sitting on cash like this.

Not really sure what to believe I guess.
If earnings spike across the board then there is no stopping this rally.
I hope earnings tank so everyone will realize they have been lied to.
Average Joe to get burned again.

Then I'm in. In the meantime I have to keep making these little pitter patter plays until new data comes out. This market just looks like blind faith to me.
 
May 7, 2013
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That's what I read at first, but these are usually safe haven players. Now all of a suddent they are risk on?

Then I saw an article about average individuals holding a collective of hundreds of billions ready to pour it in. I find this a little hard to believe that people are sitting on cash like this.

Not really sure what to believe I guess.
If earnings spike across the board then there is no stopping this rally.
I hope earnings tank so everyone will realize they have been lied to.
Average Joe to get burned again.

Then I'm in. In the meantime I have to keep making these little pitter patter plays until new data comes out. This market just looks like blind faith to me.
I understand what you're saying, but we can only go off either a) what THEY tell us or b) the data that someone compiles through their research. And since this occurred relatively recent, I don't think anyone has compiled the factual data that tells us where it is stemming from.

I wouldn't be super surprised if certain institutions or governments created more digital 1's and 0's out of thin air, all I know is it wasn't me...

Small plays add up though, nothing wrong with that.
 
Apr 11, 2003
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Guide to analyst recommendations

Bear Stearns

Outperform
Stock is projected to outperform the analyst's coverage universe over next 12 months.
Peer Perform
Stock is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry coverage universe over next 12 months.
Underperform
Stock is projected to underperform the analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12-months.

Sectors are also rated either Market Overweight, Market Weight and Market Underweight.

Credit Suisse First Boston
here
Say whaaaaat??
 
May 6, 2002
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Small plays add up though, nothing wrong with that.
Ya, I just don't like doing it with my IRA.
I had a brokerage account to go in and out of things, but completely liquidated that back in November for real estate.

So I have to play around with retirement money. Not wise, but just keeping it under control.
 
May 7, 2013
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Its not about the names of the financial companies, like the defunct Bear Stearns, its about the terminologies for performances and guidance, and how they differ from institution to institution. This is important to know because each entity may say the same terms but they may not weight all of the terms the same (gotta love engrish)
 
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What is a 'Margin'
Margin is the difference between a product or service's selling price and its cost of production or to the ratio between a company's revenues and expenses. It also refers to the amount of equity contributed by an investor as a percentage of the current market value of securities held in a margin account. Margin is the portion of the interest rate on an adjustable-rate mortgage added to the adjustment-index rate.

BREAKING DOWN 'Margin'
In a general context, margin refers to the edge or border of something or the amount by which an item falls short or surpasses another item. Both of these definitions underscore the word's usage in numerous financial contexts including investing, accounting and lending. "To margin" means to use borrowed money to purchase securities.

What Does Margin Mean in Investing?
To margin, also called buying on margin, refers to the practice of buying an asset where the buyer pays only a percentage of the asset's value and borrows the rest from the bank or broker. The broker acts as a lender, and he uses the funds in the securities account as collateral on the loan's balance. The margin is the amount the investor puts down on the account and is typically expressed as a percentage.

For example, if an investor wants to buy a $10,000 futures contract on margin, and the margin is 20%, he must pay $2,000 in cash but can borrow the rest of the balance from the bank or broker. This is advantageous in cases where the investor anticipates earning a higher rate of return on the investment than he is paying in interest on the loan.

Read more: Margin Definition | Investopedia Margin Definition | Investopedia